One last round of EOS body upgrades left?

dolina

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Looking at the last transition from FD to EF (EOS) gives us an idea how the transition from EF to RF systems may play out.

Timeline
1981 - "New F-1" was introduced
1985 - Four FD lense models were introduced
1987 - EF system was introduced
1989 - New FD200mm f/1.8L: Last FD lens was introduced
1990 - Canon T60: Last FD body was introduced. This is a consumer body equivalent to a EOS Rebel
1992 - Last New F-1, top of the line FD body, was manufactured. This a pro body equivalent to a EOS 1D
1994 - New F-1 body was discontinued
1995 - Last batch of FD lenses was manufactured
2004 - New F-1 body factory support ends

It appears to me that we can only look forward to at best 1 last round of EOS bodies from Canon. Per CR's Buyer's Guide these are the possible timeframe of release if we base the product cycle on average days between releases.

March 2019 - 1D X Mark II replacement
September 2019 - 7D Mark II replacement
February 2020 - 5Ds R replacement
April 2020 - 5D Mark IV replacement

Note: List isnt exhaustive of Canon bodies.

I expect all of these bodies to be refreshed before July 2020 for the Tokyo Summer Olympics.

With Canon devoting all their, now very limited, resources to the RF mount leads me to believe that new EOS bodies by 2024 or 2025 will not happen.
 
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Maximilian

The dark side - I've been there
Nov 7, 2013
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Good question, dolina.

I suppose you could be right with the single digit ones. Depending on the performance and acceptance of the EVF for press, sport and action pros, I'd expect two more 1D generations.
For the consumer APS-C bodies with their short life cycles, they could also get some two more iterations.
I think Canon EOS digital Cameras and lenses have wa wider market spread today as the analog ones had back then.
So the customers also have demands and expectations.

We'll see...

Edit: Depending on what Canon delivers on the R side as 5D equvalent I could go there or I am in the queue for the 5D5 ;)
 

haggie

EOS 80D
May 11, 2016
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And all those cropped action photographers that are anxiously waiting for an EOS 7D Mk III (with the improvements in AF and DR that have been mentioned more than enough by now) get their hopes up from posts like these.
I just remembered that little over a year ago there was the actual rumor (although pretty low CR) that the 7D Mk III would be coming (early) in 2018.

In the end someone will be right that it is coming.
Or not........ :cry:
 

Mt Spokane Photography

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In the case of new bodies adding electronic autofocus and aperture control, the new cameras were obviously a huge improvement for new photographers, and although pro photographers don't rapidly adapt to new technology, most were soon sold.

In the case of mirrorless, some aspects are improved, some are worse, so a R (I have one) does not replace a DSLR yet, my 5D MK IV can run circles around it for fast response and ease of use.

In the end, its sales that determine the outcome, and Canon is going all out to put out lenses, add adapters, lots of accessories will be coming. They want it to be successful, but they will make DSLR's as long as they sell, just like they made film cameras until sales stopped.
 

dak723

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In the case of new bodies adding electronic autofocus and aperture control, the new cameras were obviously a huge improvement for new photographers, and although pro photographers don't rapidly adapt to new technology, most were soon sold.

In the case of mirrorless, some aspects are improved, some are worse, so a R (I have one) does not replace a DSLR yet, my 5D MK IV can run circles around it for fast response and ease of use.

In the end, its sales that determine the outcome, and Canon is going all out to put out lenses, add adapters, lots of accessories will be coming. They want it to be successful, but they will make DSLR's as long as they sell, just like they made film cameras until sales stopped.
Yes, they will make them as long as they sell.

As mantioned, there is really no comparison between the the situation today with the beginnings of mirrorless, and that of EF replacing FD. The vast majority of camera buyers preferred AF, thus making the FD system somewhat obsolete. It added a huge functionality, but did not take away anyhting that FD offered. So far, there is no evidence that the vast majority of camera buyers will prefer mirrorless. At the moment, it does not equal DSLRs in many areas, while adding functionality in others. When it does everything better (which may never happen), or if an obvious majority of camera buyers go mirrorless, then a discussion such as this one may be meaningful. That's my opinion, anyway.
 

Rocky

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In the good old film days, "professional" SLR and RF have been co-exist for more than 50 years.
 
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Talys

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On a personal level, until they figure out AF illuminators and battery life (I'd like 1 battery to give 6-8 hours of looking through an evf being continuously on while taking 500-800+photos) I will continue buying DSLRs, though it is an "and" thing, not an "or" - so if Canon makes dslrs and mirrorless that are both useful tools for me, I'll buy both. I suspect that I'm not alone, and it makes no sense for Canon and Nikon to stop making DSLRs as long as enough people are buying them. After all, they are very, very good at making DSLRs.

Looking at the market as a whole, I think you're wrong. APSC is the vast majority of the market, APSC mirrorless hav been out for a long time now, yet Canon and Nikon keep iterating inexpensive APSC dslrs, and they remain the best selling cameras. It's not like the M50 orM100 is going to kill off Rebels any time soon.
 

dolina

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In the good old film days, "professional" SLR and RF have been co-exist for more than 50 years.
In 2019 digital Range Finders are only sold by Leica. Due to very small volume film cameras do not even merit a camera ship count by CIPA.

And did Canon ship SLR and Rangefinder systems are the same time for 50 years?

The 1 more generation of upgrade assumption of this thread only considered the 1D, 5D, 5Ds and 7D high-end DSLRs.

While writing this post I did further research on all the DSLRs Canon is currently selling, which includes consumer DSLRs, If Canon were to mirror their FD to EF transition exactly then they are doing so right now. The T60 FD camera that came out after the EF system debuted was a consumer SLR, Canon Rebel equivalent. Canon did not release any more high end FD cameras after the EF system was introduced.

The 1D, 5D, 5Ds or 7D have not received an upgrade in over 4 years while Canon Rebel cameras have received upgrades even after the RF system was released. So it is sadly possible that Canon has ceased R&D for any future high-end DSLR and shifted all their resource to the RF system.

If no more high-end DSLRs are released before July 2020 then do not expect them anymore. The system may have factory support until at most the year 2039.
 
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Valvebounce

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Apr 3, 2013
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Hi Folks.
I think there is a huge hole in the reasoning here, that being no* backwards / forwards compatibility between FD and EOS where there is instant backwards compatibility between the EOS R and EF with manufacturer supplied adaptors which also add functionality. I realise that R lenses are not backwards compatibile with EF bodies.
I see the FD to EF (EOS) was a revolution where EF to R is more evolution.
* I know there are adaptors today that give some limited life to FD glass on EF bodies, no infinity focus or poor quality correction lenses in the adaptor, I do not know if these (or better) existed at the point of transition?

Cheers, Graham.
 
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haggie

EOS 80D
May 11, 2016
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So it is sadly possible that Canon has ceased R&D for any future high-end DSLR and shifted all their resource to the RF system.
Perhaps not ""all" their resources will be redirected towards mirrorless, but I also feel that Canon might not invest in DSLR's in areas where that is needed badly from the perspective of demanding customers, i.e. customers that want a top of class camera from Canon. That is why I wrote earlier:
" ... the 7D Mk II is no toy camera, so further improvements in AF- and sensor performance will not come easy. That is: they will not come cheap. As a result, for the EOS 7D Mk III to get on par with the D500 in these areas, Canon will need to invest in both the sensor and the AF system: in development as well as in engineering. This is expensive.

Personally I am a bit worried by the “Canon said to have scrapped at least one DSLR in development [CR2]“ rumor. I can see Canon’s marketing managers scrapping the 7D Mk III to avoid investing in a better AF system for the 7D Mk III, because that is specific for DSLRs and will have no spin-off to future mirrorless
."

Obviously, I hope I am wrong here and that my preferred brand will come up with a top-of-class 7D Mk III.
 

docsmith

EOS 6D MK II
Sep 17, 2010
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First, Canon will keep manufacturing products that will sell well.

Second, what should sell well and Canon will likely understand which cameras have which technological advantages.

Right now, it seems like the primary technical advantage of DSLRs within the Canon lineup is AF speed. Until mirrorless surpasses DSLRs here, I expect new DSLR bodies, especially 1Ds, 7Ds and even the all-arounder-5D, but likely others. Battery life would be another advantage and those that prefer OVF.

Mirrorless should eventually be less expensive due to more automated manufacturing and I really like the idea of AF coverage over ~90% of the image area and never having to worry about AFMA again. Then all the "intelligent" things like eye-AF, etc.

I completely expected a paired down next generation of DSLRs from Canon unless they can manufacturer mirrorless they feel is the same or better quality. But, for the transition, I would expect ~60% of previous DSLR bodies to receive one more iteration.

While I do not think this will be the case, where this gets interesting is if DSLRs hold some sort of critical inherit superior characteristic over mirrorless. Then I can see several more generations of DSLRs aimed at niches that benefit from that characteristic.
 

neuroanatomist

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First, Canon will keep manufacturing products that will sell well.
...
While I do not think this will be the case, where this gets interesting is if DSLRs hold some sort of critical inherit superior characteristic over mirrorless. Then I can see several more generations of DSLRs aimed at niches that benefit from that characteristic.
The current superior characteristic, from Canon’s perspective, is that DSLRs sell better.
 

YuengLinger

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Dec 20, 2012
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First, Canon will keep manufacturing products that will sell well.

Right now, it seems like the primary technical advantage of DSLRs within the Canon lineup is AF speed. Until mirrorless surpasses DSLRs here, I expect new DSLR bodies, especially 1Ds, 7Ds and even the all-arounder-5D, but likely others. Battery life would be another advantage and those that prefer OVF.
Do you mean that DSLR's have an AF speed advantage in all cases? Or just with AI Servo? It does seem that on OVF still wins out with action, because there is zero lag, and all action seen through the OVF is happening live, not milliseconds ago.
 

dolina

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Hi Folks.
I think there is a huge hole in the reasoning here, that being no* backwards / forwards compatibility between FD and EOS where there is instant backwards compatibility between the EOS R and EF with manufacturer supplied adaptors which also add functionality. I realise that R lenses are not backwards compatibile with EF bodies.
I see the FD to EF (EOS) was a revolution where EF to R is more evolution.
* I know there are adaptors today that give some limited life to FD glass on EF bodies, no infinity focus or poor quality correction lenses in the adaptor, I do not know if these (or better) existed at the point of transition?

Cheers, Graham.
IIRC in the 1980s Canon came out with a FD lens to EOS body adapter like the 2018 EF lens to EOS R body adapter.

RF lenses cannot physically fit onto EOS bodies due to the flange distance would hit the DSLR's mirror.
 
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Michael Clark

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With Canon devoting all their, now very limited, resources to the RF mount leads me to believe that new EOS bodies by 2024 or 2025 will not happen.

EOS R bodies are EOS bodies, just not EOS EF bodies.

Beyond that, there's a huge difference between the totally incompatible FD mount and the totally electronic EF mount and the close compatibility of EOS EF mount lenses on an EOS R mount camera with an adapter that provides the necessary 24mm additional spacing while not affecting the EOS communication protocols at all.
 

neuroanatomist

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IIRC in the 1980s Canon came out with a FD lens to EOS body adapter like the 2018 EF lens to EOS R body adapter.

R lenses cannot physically fit onto EOS bodies due to the flange distance would hit the DSLR's mirror.
Perhaps read his post more carefully? Yes, there was a Canon FD to EOS adapter. It was basically a short TC, changed focal length, wasn’t very good optically, and only worked with TC-compatible lenses (mainly superteles, not standard lenses).

The EF to RF adapter offers seamless compatibility for EF lenses on R bodies, meaning unlike with FD, there’s no objective reason not to continue EF lens development as long as DSLRs remain popular.
 
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dolina

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there’s no objective reason not to continue EF lens development as long as DSLRs remain popular.
  • Canon thinks that the camera market will shrink another 50% over the next 2 years
  • Canon’s camera sales have declined 10% a year over the last few years.
  • The global market for interchangeable lens cameras is about 10 million units a year.
  • Mirrorless camera sales are not adding to the market, they’re merely replacing DSLR sales. This is likely why Canon and Nikon waited so long to enter the full frame mirrorless segment. Putting forth the R&D to cannibalize yourself probably gets the bean counters in a tizzy.
  • Canon will shift its business to more corporate sales than consumer retail sales
  • Canon obviously recognizes what Smartphones have done to the sales of entry-level cameras, but Canon thinks they’ll continue to sell 5-6 million prosumer and professional cameras once we’ve reached the bottom of the decline.
Nikei News interview of the Canon CEO.

EF lenses announced in 2018 lead me to initially believe that 2 (then just 1) generations of future high-end Canon DSLRs will be released.

After rereading the interview, looking at the Canon Museum's lens and body timeline, CR's Buyer's Guide where Canon has not updated their high-end DSLR for over 4 year but continue to release newer consumer DSLR made me rethink the premise of my thread of "1 more generation of upgrades for Canon DSLRs before July 2020" to "no more new Canon DSLRs anymore".

If my resources were shrinking and and the market is moving to mirrorless then I'll put all of my very limited and shrinking R&D money into mirrorless bodies and lenses.

Yes, you can make more EF lenses that all work with the EF lens to RF body adapter but from a marketing point of view it will be difficult to push. That is why Canon made native RF lenses to make it an easier sell.

There is no shortage of EF lenses or bodies. You can buy 90 Canon EF lenses and 13 Canon EF bodies now on BHPhoto. So why devote more R&D money into a sunsetting system?

If you're a new camera customer you will seek out a "mirrorless camera" unless you're on a budget then buy whatever is available on hand that fits within your money.

I would be wrong and that confirmation will be had before the Tokyo Olympics.
 
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neuroanatomist

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If you're a new camera customer you will seek out a "mirrorless camera" unless you're on a budget then buy whatever is available on hand that fits within your money.
And yet...over 2018 full year and even December alone, DSLRs outsold MILCs worldwide.

And yet...Canon sold more FF cameras domestically in 2018 than anyone else, in spite of only having a FF MILC model for the last quarter of the year.

And yet, a couple of weeks ago in Japan, 4 of the top 5 and 6 of the top 10 ILCs sold were DSLRs, and the fact that all of the top 10 are kitted with 1-2 lenses suggests these are mostly new buyers choosing DSLRs (and there are DSLRs higher on the list than cheaper MILCs, so it’s not solely budget driven).

So, the facts show your statement above to be wrong. Plus, DSLRs are selling better than MILCs in Japan, which is the market where MILCs enjoy their highest popularity. So...even more wrong.
 

LDS

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The T60 FD camera that came out after the EF system debuted was a consumer SLR
That was a very "strange" camera in the Canon FD lineup. Actually, it wasn't even made by Canon, IIRC it was made by Cosina using one of its own designs (but the FD mount, of course), and didn't share anything with the previous T models. I believe it was an attempt to deliver a cheap camera for the low-end market that couldn't be addressed then by the EOS line yet. It really looked liked an improvised stopgap measure. I wouldn't use it as any hint about what would happen to Canon SLRs.