RF Mount 7D2 replacement? Could it happen?

[Don Haines]

It is a safe bet that the 7D3 is not going to come out and replace the 7D2, but what happens next?

The camera industry is moving towards Mirrorless.... Canon and Nikon are the last holdouts, and Canon is on the way. At the lower end, we have the M series, and at the higher end, the R series. We are told that there are higher end R cameras on the way, including a high megapixel monster.

However, the bulk of Canon sales are the Rebels. People seem to prefer that combination of size and price, and there is no way that Canon are going to let that market get away from them. At some point soon, I expect to see some low cost kit lenses appear in the R mount, and eventually an R mount Rebel. Likewise, I think that the 90D will be the end of its line.

Looking at other makers of high end crop cameras, we have Olympus and Panasonic who have both come out with very high end crop cameras. Both are loaded with features and have so much computing power packed into them, that they had to make bodies that are reminiscent of a 1DX series camera. I expect that Canon will join the fray, and we will end up with an R mount body, slightly bigger than the R, with improved battery capacity, an IBIS crop sensor (35 megapixel range), quad Digic 9?, and similar functions to the Oly and Panasonic top end cameras.

I don’t expect to see it for a couple years, but 60FPS burst modes, superhigh in camera stitching mode, single shot HDR,, object recognition and tracking, and 6K video (8K?) are all possibilities.

Anyway, this is just speculation, I have no secret inside knowledge (or imaginary helicopter) and am just guessing/wishing for the future. However you look at it, these are interesting times for camera gear.

 

[Ozarker]

Probably once the kit lenses come out and the 2.8 zooms for the RF mount. Just speculating too. I am very happy with the price point of the R/RP and I think once the bigger/faster R's come out the price points will be reasonable too, for whatever Canon decides to produce (Comparable to 5D mark IV and 1DX Mark II in price... maybe lower because of market contraction pressure? It looks like right now that Canon is going to sell the bodies lower and the lenses higher, at least on the RF L lenses. I'd imagine those prices will come down though. They usually do over time. I paid the release price of the EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II when it came out and it was not inexpensive at all. Now I look at the current prices for the III version and it was $2,100 at release, I think.. The II released at $2,499.

I do think there will be an APS-C R to replace the 7D II. Wildlife photographers seem to really like the APS-C size.

 

[Del Paso]

An APS-C with R F mount would be a very logical step for Canon, and the adaptability of EF lenses ,including the Canon APS lenses, a convincing argument.
90D or 7 DII users could keep using all their lenses.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Probably once the kit lenses come out and the 2.8 zooms for the RF mount. Just speculating too. I am very happy with the price point of the R/RP and I think once the bigger/faster R's come out the price points will be reasonable too, for whatever Canon decides to produce (Comparable to 5D mark IV and 1DX Mark II in price... maybe lower because of market contraction pressure? It looks like right now that Canon is going to sell the bodies lower and the lenses higher, at least on the RF L lenses. I'd imagine those prices will come down though. They usually do over time. I paid the release price of the EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II when it came out and it was not inexpensive at all. Now I look at the current prices for the III version and it was $2,100 at release, I think.. The II released at $2,499.

I do think there will be an APS-C R to replace the 7D II. Wildlife photographers seem to really like the APS-C size.

Mirrorless bodies cost less to build. Costs are typically estimated based on part count, and there are fewer parts in a mirrorless camera. The EVF is a bit pricy, but getting rid of all the complex and delicate mirrors, prisms and exposure and AF sensor cuts not only cost to make, but reduces the need for service.

The other factor is building market share. Aggressive pricing is meant to attract buyers and generate a large enough base of users so that more will want to jump on the bandwagon. That's a big risk financially, basically buying into the market. Prices will rise at some point.

If a APS-C version of the R series comes out, it will likely have a few more features than the M6, but perfromance will be similar. Maybe 2 card slots? There needs to be something that differentiates such a body, maybe price?

 

[Dantana]

It is a safe bet that the 7D3 is not going to come out and replace the 7D2, but what happens next?

The camera industry is moving towards Mirrorless.... Canon and Nikon are the last holdouts, and Canon is on the way. At the lower end, we have the M series, and at the higher end, the R series. We are told that there are higher end R cameras on the way, including a high megapixel monster.

However, the bulk of Canon sales are the Rebels. People seem to prefer that combination of size and price, and there is no way that Canon are going to let that market get away from them. At some point soon, I expect to see some low cost kit lenses appear in the R mount, and eventually an R mount Rebel. Likewise, I think that the 90D will be the end of its line.

Looking at other makers of high end crop cameras, we have Olympus and Panasonic who have both come out with very high end crop cameras. Both are loaded with features and have so much computing power packed into them, that they had to make bodies that are reminiscent of a 1DX series camera. I expect that Canon will join the fray, and we will end up with an R mount body, slightly bigger than the R, with improved battery capacity, an IBIS crop sensor (35 megapixel range), quad Digic 9?, and similar functions to the Oly and Panasonic top end cameras.

I don’t expect to see it for a couple years, but 60FPS burst modes, superhigh in camera stitching mode, single shot HDR,, object recognition and tracking, and 6K video (8K?) are all possibilities.

Anyway, this is just speculation, I have no secret inside knowledge (or imaginary helicopter) and am just guessing/wishing for the future. However you look at it, these are interesting times for camera gear.

You completely lost me with the lack of a helicopter. I don't know how I can trust you any more.

 

[Graphic.Artifacts]

I appreciate your optimism Don but Canon could fix everything that needs updating on the 7D Mark II with parts they have on hand and they still can't be bothered. I don't see them developing an entirely new line when simply updating the sensor and processors in the existing body doesn't seem to be worth their effort.

No upgrade to the 80D sensor and now no 90D sensor either. They ought to just go ahead and discontinue the line at this point.

I tried to sell my used Mark II on craigslist and didn't even get a lowball offer. They are practically giving them away on Ebay. Even the 30-year-old film gear I listed sold in a couple weeks. The R line is for portrait, wedding and event shooters which I assume are a core profit center for Canon. My guess is that the 90D is the best Canon APSC camera for wildlife that we are going to have for the forseeable future. I wish I had known Canon was going to bail-out on wildlife before I invested so much in the EF system. I could have saved myself a lot of aggravation.

 

[Don Haines]

I appreciate your optimism Don but Canon could fix everything that needs updating on the 7D Mark II with parts they have on hand and they still can't be bothered. I don't see them developing an entirely new line when simply updating the sensor and processors in the existing body doesn't seem to be worth their effort.

No upgrade to the 80D sensor and now no 90D sensor either. They ought to just go ahead and discontinue the line at this point.

I tried to sell my used Mark II on craigslist and didn't even get a lowball offer. They are practically giving them away on Ebay. Even the 30-year-old film gear I listed sold in a couple weeks. The R line is for portrait, wedding and event shooters which I assume are a core profit center for Canon. My guess is that the 90D is the best Canon APSC camera for wildlife that we are going to have for the forseeable future. I wish I had known Canon was going to bail-out on wildlife before I invested so much in the EF system. I could have saved myself a lot of aggravation.

I don’t see it as the development of a new line, as much as I see it as abandonment of an old line. At some point the rebels are going to loose their mirrors and Canon will replace them with something of a similar form factor because that’s what sells. I wonder if there is any more than one or two more EF-S cameras left to come, including the 90D!

 

[Graphic.Artifacts]

I don’t see it as the development of a new line, as much as I see it as abandonment of an old line. At some point the rebels are going to loose their mirrors and Canon will replace them with something of a similar form factor because that’s what sells. I wonder if there is any more than one or two more EF-S cameras left to come, including the 90D!

You're probably right about the rebels but I'm not sure we'll see anything quite like the 7D. It was a very good value as Canon's go. IMO the only thing it really needs is a sensor/processor upgrade(edit...the Rebels have better chipware than the 7D Mark II ). I think the problem was that as the XXD bodies moved upmarket it became a bit of a niche wildlife camera. Given the build quality I'm not sure it was as profitable as the XXD line despite selling at a premium. Caught between cheap full frames and a 32 MP/10 FPS 90D there doesn't seem to be a lot of daylight for a premium APSC DSLR. You may be right that they can repackage it as an EOS R but I think Canon would struggle to make a mirrorless that can focus at DSLR speeds.

However, I'd be very happy to be wrong. That 90D sensor with dual processors would be a smoking little shooter for wildlife.

 

[Aussie shooter]

But there is still the problem of the evf for wildlife shooting. I can't see anything stopping canon overcoming the other challenges such as focusing and speed etc but I am not sure an evf will ever be a match for an ovf for this niche. On the other hand it may get to the point of the camera companies saying to wildlife photographers 'so sad too bad and not giving us a choice in the matter. Reality is that if the only option I will take it despite not liking it as much.

 

[bhf3737]

Perhaps a low frame rate high megapixel camera with higher frame rate crop mode will check many boxes for advanced users. But it won't be Rebel-like cheap or a 1Dx-like pro camera.
It seems that Canon is marketing M series as the replacement of Kiss (Rebels) in Japan now and perhaps elsewhere later on, as their lowest tier cameras and lenses. The middle tier will be xxD and R series, for which every offering is in the mid level. Neither that cheap nor that expensive, Neither that much stripped down nor that much full of features. Neither that slow, nor that fast, etc.
But for the pro level we still need to wait and see. Currently there is no RF mount full frame or cropped high frame rate and fast focusing camera available and my guess is that the cropped version will be more expensive than the current R if it ever get produced. I guess Canon knows better whether there is a market for a dedicated cropped RF mount camera at the medium-high price point and if there is, they will definitely consider developing and selling it. I personally would love to have a fast and weather sealed high frame rate cropped RF camera, even if it costs twich as much the current 7DII.

 

[K.Wray]

I have a 7DII and know many bird/wildlife shooters that have 7DIIs. One thing I have never ever heard of, was any of us wishing the 7DIII would go mirrorless. Only complaint I have ever heard in the field was for high iso noise levels of the sensor. Most people simply want a 7D III due to their 7DIIs being older and/or past the shutter life expectancy. I'm confident a 7D III DSLR wI'll be made. They have all they need now in other cams to make a killer 7DIII right now. I wonder if the people wanting the 7dIII to go mirroless even have a 7D III or shoot sports/wildlife at all. That is just what I always wanted in a wildlife cam, R lime viewfinder lag and horrid battery life. I sometimes shoot in -15 degree weather in the winter, I literally could not be changing batteries all the time with a mirrorless cam in that weather. Its borderline frost bite conditions as is, can't take gloves off for frequent battery changes. I've never ran out of battery power with the 7D III and several times a week shot 3000 plus shots a day. On vacations shoot all day no problem without changing batteries. Many who have the 7DIII already have 100-400 II, 400 DO, 500 II, or 600's. I have the 500 II and 100-400 II, just what I want to do is use adapter or buy rf versions.

 

[Otara]

I have a 7D2 and shoot wildlife and would love a mirrorless - silent shutter alone for wildlife is great.

Battery life isnt as bad as you might think, on the R anyhow.

 

[unfocused]

I'm not convinced and I'm not sure Canon knows the way forward yet.

The decision, for whatever reason, not to make greater interchangeability between RF, M and EF creates a dilemma for Canon in my opinion. They have defined the M line as their mirrorless crop sensor line, but because M cameras cannot use RF lenses, it makes the line unattractive for a future flagship mirrorless crop sensor camera.

If there is a market for the 7D line, and I don't know enough to know whether there is or not, the simplest solution is just to kick the can down the road a bit by coming out with a 7DIII. The 90 D has clearly been positioned to allow room for a 7DIII above it, if needed. A 7D III would buy them another four years or so to let the market sort itself out and see if mirrorless is really a replacement or if it is just an alternative.

An R mount APS-C mirrorless would certainly confuse buyers and effectively shut off the upgrade path for M users. However, it's possible that Canon has determined that the typical Rebel/M buyer is never going to buy a 7DIII-type camera anyway, so they may not be concerned about shutting off that upgrade path. Still, that seems uncharacteristic to me.

I also don't know how you price and slot an APS-C flagship R. If the rumored "Rx" comes to fruition and Canon prices it somewhere near the 1DxIII where does the "R7" fit? Would they price it below the R? Could they price it below the R?

And, what about timing? Before you have an "R7" I think we will see the rumored high MP R and the "Rx". Which probably puts us well into 2021 at the earliest. At that point, there may be a 90DII on the horizon, which offers improved autofocus, dual cards and better weather sealing.

Finally, as megapixel counts rise, will there even be a need for a high end APS-C camera?

Let's throw in one crazy idea – Since the R7 would be an orphan anyway as far as lens mount goes, why not resurrect the APS-H sensor? That would certainly lend some clarity to the lines.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I expect that one has been designed and tested. But ... with sales slowing down, Canon may be holding off proceding. Its very expensive to introduce a new model, and sales has a big impact on new model introductions. Canon has said that they were looking at a APS C in the R series, but I think it might be pushing it to have 3 similar models in the M, DSLR, and R lines. It would dilute sales a lot.

 

[BillB]

I expect that one has been designed and tested. But ... with sales slowing down, Canon may be holding off proceding. Its very expensive to introduce a new model, and sales has a big impact on new model introductions. Canon has said that they were looking at a APS C in the R series, but I think it might be pushing it to have 3 similar models in the M, DSLR, and R lines. It would dilute sales a lot.

We shall see. Or not. We will never know for sure unless Canon rolls out an aps-c camera with an RF mount. Until then it will be maybe next year.

 

[jvillain]

I would be surprised if Canon didn't release at least one RF mount APS-C camera just to see how it does. Canon bodies division of today isn't the Canon body division of past but Canon has thrown one offs out there before just to see what happens. Fuji-Film has shown there is a market for that kind of camera. Whether Canon of today can compete in that space though is a big question mark. My understanding is that the M series sells very well in Japan but not necessarily in the rest of the world. If that is true then Canon may want to look at what they can do to push more cameras outside of Japan.

 

[K.Wray]

My 7DII has a silent shutter mode, not completely silent but quiet enough that is doesn't spook birds at 3 ft min focus distance of 100-400 II. I am a little surprised you don't think battery life of the R is bad compared to the 7 DII. Maybe you have a bad battery for your 7D II.

 

[Ah-Keong]

I believe that the next RF mount would be for " 5DsR " replacement which may have Nikon D850 specs .

 

[Don Haines]

I believe that the next RF mount would be for " 5DsR " replacement which may have Nikon D850 specs .

So do I, and I think it will have the same pixel density as the 90D, which would give us an 83 megapixel FF camera.

 

[SecureGSM]

So do I, and I think it will have the same pixel density as the 90D, which would give us an 83 megapixel FF camera.

I was wondering what would the shutter speed reciprocal formula look like for a 83mp FF mirrorless body? 1/ 3x FL (mm) ???

Sure, no mirror shock but pixel size is just tiny.