Within the past two years, I have espoused a new breed of photographic systems that stand poised to nearly take over the entire low-end to medium range photography "business". There actually IS a magical "Island of Stability" for sensor sizes that both fit the width and height dimensions AND the focal plane allowances (i.e. thickness) for most of today's larger smartphones.
These three sensor sizes are the 2/3rds inch, Micro-Four Thirds, and the APS-C sensor sizes which WILL FIT with a bit of extra phone thickness into the common 5.5 inch to 6.5 inch display-sizes of many modern smartphone configurations. By FIT, I mean that the final smartphone will be around 9mm up to 15 mm in thickness which is more than acceptable for many users IF there is an added benefit of extra long-life batteries being put in as a side-benefit of that larger phone size.
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Why is a larger sensor size even needed?
On MANY people's mind, having a SINGLE DEVICE that does everything from making phone calls, to surfing the web, to storing their downloaded video and music AND taking high quality stills and video of their family members, friends and vacation spots is something that is TRULY DESIRABLE! In my opinion, carrying around a Canon M6 or Powershot G7 AND a Samsung S10 is just too much, when for the mere additional cost of an extra 2 to 5 mm of phone thickness, I CAN have everything I ever wanted in a portable computing and imaging device.
Computational Photography is the NEXT killer app for all-in-one devices!
The Google Pixel-3 phone is arguably the BEST image taking phone out today! Why? Because Google is able to spend hundreds of MILLIONS of dollars to create autonomous A.I.-like software that can run on almost ANY of the CPU chips that are embedded into modern smartphones. Google has been been able to wring-out every last bit of imaging data from sensors that have photo sites as small as 1-to-2 microns in size. That is an an absolutely OUTSTANDING software achievement and Google SHOULD be commended for their efforts since they non-restrictively licence this technology to everyone who asks!
What is really missing from a modern smartphone?
A BIG SENSOR! And by big, I mean at least a 2/3rds inch up to as large as an APS-C imager which are PHYSICALLY capable of being installed in such devices. Once that occurs, ALL major camera manufacturers SHOULD be quaking in their boots when Google's A.I.-based computational photography software meets up with a big smartphone image sensor.
What is Happening Now?
Recently, I have been able to obtain access to systems that illustrate the capabilities of EXACTLY such big-image-sensor super-smartphone devices. And I should note that MORE THAN ONE MANUFACTURER has these prototypes in field testing right this moment in fall-2019. While NDA's (Non-Disclosure Agreements) preclude me from discussing too much more, I should let it be known that 2020 will be the year for BOTH announcements and actual device introductions. And the major reason for this, is that sensor costs have now been driven down for highly light-sensitive 24 megapixel (6000 by 4000 pixel) 2/3rds Inch to APS-C sizes such that their RAW BULK image sensor chip sales costs are now down to between $50 to $150 which is low enough for profitable inclusion into smartphone technology. Soon after introduction, 32 megapixel, 41 megapixel and 50+ megapixel sensors at those larger sizes will be brought down enough that within three years of introduction, larger sensors will become the default on almost ALL smartphones!
Are smartphones today really that bad?
NO! Thanks to companies like Google, Sony, Huawei, Samsung and Apple, computational photography software has done a pretty good job of washing over the limitations of a sensor that has 1 to 2 micron photosite sizes. THE NEXT LEVEL HOWEVER, is large sensor super-smartphones which are mated to just such computational photography software which will let even the most mediocre photographer take photos worth writing home about!
Is there a DOWNSIDE to bigger sensors?
There are TWO! And that is Battery Power and Phone Thickness! We just NOT going to have a full APS-C sensor on a 9mm thick smartphone and have it be able to run your phone all day like we do now. Because of the increased focal plane distance required for large image sensors, manufacturers can compensate by adding large and thicker batteries into parts of the thicker phone that are not being used by the sensor apparatus itself! This means your super-smartphone with its bigger image sensor will be between 9mm to as much as 15mm thick depending upon the sensor size included. This is caused by physics-based sensor focal plane issues that are not easily bypassed by technology!
Based upon my conversations with some premiere electronics design firms, I have found there is a sweet spot of 5200 mAh as the starting battery-size for a 2/3rds inch super-smartphone that runs all day. An APS-C goes as high as 7200 mAh and if you are taking 60 fps 4K 10-bit video that of course goes even higher in terms of milliamp-hours required of a battery!
What changes will we see to this next generation of super-smartphone?
Because of the thicker phone housing required to allow the requisite focal plane distance needed by larger sensors, we will see more powerful CPU's (i.e. Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 and better!) because there's more room for them now, a more industrial/ruggedized look to these new phones (at least initially!) and the inclusion of IP-67/IP-68 waterproofing/dust ingress standards so as to better protect the delicate innards of the larger image sensors. I expect that the modern Apple iPhone or Samsung S-10 "Fashion Phone Look" will only come later as new lens technology allows for 9mm and thinner phones to be made with the larger sensors.
Looks-wise, these will be more commercial/industrial looking phones more designed for the business person and photographic enthusiast. Price-wise we are looking at as little as $800 US for a 2/3rds inch sensor smartphone to as much as $1600 US for an APS-C sized sensor smartphone. Because these phones will TEND to have more powerful CPU's, better displays (i.e. full 4K resolution), be more rugged and of course have a large image sensor, those stated prices will not come down anytime soon!
Does it make sense for YOU, the Canon Rumors reader to buy one of these?
If you are THINKING about spending more than $400 US on ANY camera AND are thinking about getting a new phone then this is a no-brainer! Forget about that Canon Powershot G7 or M50 --- It's more cost effective to get the $800 to $1100 2/3rds inch super-smartphone and TAKE ADVANTAGE of the super-smart computational photography software that will be included. That combination WILL ALLOW YOU to take great photos AND still make phone calls and surf the internet! If you are thinking of that new D90 or used 7D2/5DMk4 then fuggediboutit! That APS-C will be so much better simply because of the high-end computational photography software mated to the large APS-C sensor! You would be getting equivalent-to or even BETTER than Full-Frame performance!
Lenses! What happens with those?
That is the giant elephant that is hanging about in the dining room! Super-smartphones WON'T YET HAVE DIRECTLY interchangeable lenses like a DSLR or Mirrorless ILC !!! What many super-smartphone models WILL HAVE though, is the ability to add an accessory cage to the phone which cradles it allowing for extra batteries, more SSD or SD-card-based storage, a full-size handgrip and a mount holder for attaching a separate lens. The phones will have built-in software settings to allow nearly automatic switching between their internal lens configurations and the external lens attachment.
For a direct EF or R-Mount permanently embedded on the phone, users would have to be comfortable with buying a super-smartphone that could be as thick as 20mm (for 2/3rds inch) to 45mm (for EF and R mount) which in most cases would be unacceptable to general consumers.
Professionals and super-enthusiasts might not care, but Ma, Pa and Grandma/Grandpa definitely WOULD! Current manufacturer research has found that 15mm seems to be the maximum acceptable smartphone thickness limit for the general consumer! The current limitation is focal plane distance related BUT I should also note that there is upcoming aspherical photosite microlens technology which MAY ALLOW for phones that have full EF/R mounts to be embedded on a phone as thin as 9mm! THAT would be the final death knell for almost ALL low-to-mid-range DSLR/MILC systems!
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Again, what is happening today with large sensor super-smartphone technology?
IP-67/IP-68 ruggedized super-smartphones with 2/3rds inch and APS-C image sensors and larger all-day batteries ARE NOW IN FIELD TESTING modes. I would look for mid-2020 probably just after the Tokyo Olympics to see the first few announcements coming out!
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AND to show you that smartphones have actually come a decently long way, below are some MACRO photos I recently took (September 2019) with a 2013-era Nokia 1520 smartphone which had that nice Zeiss lens in it! Now IMAGINE if I had a 2/3rds inch or APS-C image sensor and Google's computational photography software on that phone? Image HOW MUCH BETTER and MORE DETAILED those photos would be?
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Please do comment on WHAT YOU THINK should happen for the NEXT generation of large sensor super-smartphone!
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