unfocused said:
Okay, time to have a little fun and predict the future. Check back in 2011 or 2012 and see how close I come.
Sensor somewhere in the 50-100mp range. (Not that difficult since Canon has already unveiled a 120mp APS-H sensor.)
Coming into this post I didn't realize it was in the 1.3x crop size. But it's still a one-off for now, lab grown means they can afford a lot more failed parts than they would in a realistic setting: They can just push up the pixel count, which normally would lead to an ever-increasing rate of defective parts (I dunno if it's geometric or what, but certainly a significant increase, to the point of being uneconomical) that fail because of the tight production tolerances required. Production tolerances that would be perfectly reasonable for current generation parts would, my theory goes, end up with misses on current tech. I'm sure they need an improved process over current commercialized technology just to make it, in fact. It's promising though. Of course, who knows there are any compromises they made for the sake of the pixel count which would hobble it in a production camera. I doubt it, but you never know. From my time watching the PC industry, you hear about fantastic new technologies that don't end up coming for years. Fiber optic connections between components on a mainboard have been talked about for years and they're still many years out from being developed, yet there are working prototypes all the same.
I do expect this to be coming out sooner than some of the pure research type stuff we hear about constantly on the PC side of things, like "real-time ray-traced Wolfenstein on a laptop!" (turned out the laptop was just streaming video from like four massively parallel servers) and the like. Things that won't be coming for fifteen years, if ever. The fact that this is most likely a complete system that just needs the camera's processor and other systems to be beefed up in parallel for a working camera means it'll be out sooner than these one-off designs we see so often.
Considering that the fabrication plants for CMOS technology are owned by third parties, and the state of the art in their current process size is consistent regardless of who is using these third party facilities, I don't expect this is a sizable advantage over other parties. Sony has been doing pretty well recently on the sensor front I think, and their relationship with Nikon probably has people in both companies worried.
Unless this materializes into a product before the competition, it's just a note from Canon saying "hey, we put money into R&D too! Isn't that cool?" It's probably a few years out, if not more. I think how soon the process can be commercialized, and other systems in the camera made fast enough to process 120MP images with any speed, is going to be slower than we would think.
It IS interesting to note that the medium format announcements lately haven't been much over 40MP. I think Hasselblad just put out a thirtysomething megapixel back. Seems to show to me that the MF manufacturers are stuck with the technological crumbs of the CMOS feast (poor metaphor).