The upcomming Dead of EOS DSLR / EF-line

MartinF.

EOS 6D, 5D and some good EF lenses. DPP4 user
Feb 2, 2016
71
47
Denmark
With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals.

The replacement for 80D, 7D and 6D series will be RF mount bodies - or maybe just one in-between Prosumer DSLR with EF mount as a cash-cow and a retension option for existing EF lense owners.
The Rebel / Kiss / XXXD / XXXXD series will be minimized to a few also as cash-cows.

Professionals change camerabodies much more often than prosumers. As soon as Canon has a 24-70 f/2.8 a 70-200 f/4, a 300 and a 400 a lot of the mediabusiness reportage photographers and probably other profs' as well will ship to the R-series / RF-mount line.
I guess Canon in less than a year from now (as soon a the have one or two pro "R-bodies" will come with some very good offerings for the large medias and agencies to change a large EF lens collection into RF lenses.
 

Maximilian

The dark side - I've been there
Nov 7, 2013
2,738
588
Germany
I suppose that your prediction would be more correct and realistic if you stretch it over several years in the time line.
Even Canon has not the R&D and production power to swap all that within such a short time, although several products are surely in the pipeline.
Your time line is way too short.

And to me there is no clue yet how Canon wants to go on with the prosumer APS-C systems. Not everybody wants FF but wants high performance APS-C tools and optics (or FF optics to use with APS-C).

It isn't clear yet how good the EVFs are and if sports, action and wildlife photogs are willing to change so fast - even if an EOS Rxy body with fps > 10/s would be available.
And real pros won't go with a single card slot body. Too much risk of data loss.

So keep calm, go out, take wonderful pictures and wait on how and how fast Canon will proceed.
 
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neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
Jul 21, 2010
24,639
2,153
With the launch of EOS R and the RF mount, my prediction will be, that we will see no more new Canon DSLR's except from maybe a new 5D and a new 1D meant for professionals.

The replacement for 80D, 7D and 6D series will be RF mount bodies - or maybe just one in-between Prosumer DSLR with EF mount as a cash-cow and a retension option for existing EF lense owners.
Sure. I mean, it's not like DLSRs comprise the majority of the ILC market. Oh, wait...

 

moreorless

EOS 7D MK II
Jun 18, 2011
778
2
I think the only line potentially under threat in the short term might be the 6D but even that seems a little unlikely to me.

In reality I think even if mirrorless does come to dominate the camera market your talking several upgrade cycles away.
 

MartinF.

EOS 6D, 5D and some good EF lenses. DPP4 user
Feb 2, 2016
71
47
Denmark
I suppose that your prediction would be more correct and realistic if you stretch it over several years in the time line.
Even Canon has not the R&D and production power to swap all that within such a short time, although several products are surely in the pipeline.
Your time line is way too short.

And to me there is no clue yet how Canon wants to go on with the prosumer APS-C systems. Not everybody wants FF but wants high performance APS-C tools and optics (or FF optics to use with APS-C).

It isn't clear yet how good the EVFs are and if sports, action and wildlife photogs are willing to change so fast - even if an EOS Rxy body with fps > 10/s would be available.
And real pros won't go with a single card slot body. Too much risk of data loss.

So keep calm, go out, take wonderful pictures and wait on how and how fast Canon will proceed.
Sure I will keep calm at take pictures with my 6D.
About timeline: My quess is one more iteration of 1D and 5D series - that will be 3 - 5 years from now.
Personally I don't think we will se more prosumer 80D - 7D DSLRs. My guess is that it will be an R-series - the one we saw today maybe - even that it is not so much for sports as the 7D mkII

But sure - lets take some pictures with the equipment we got. I is as good today and tomorrow as it was yesterday.
 

Don Haines

Beware of cats with laser eyes!
Jun 4, 2012
8,262
1,918
Canada
So Canon came out with the M, and the Rebel lines continued..... They are different cameras for a different set of users, with a bit of overlap for those who have both.... They are two different markets, Canon does not have to choose between being in one or the other, they are in both.....

So now we have a FullFrame M..... what is different? There is a market for both, with a bit of overlap, and rather than choosing to be in one market or the other, Canon has chosen to be both...
 

Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
15,696
874
Its the photographers who will determine the future, Canon and all the others will make what sells. If sales of DSLR's drop below a certain point while Mirrorless cameras do well, then that will determine the future. Notice that Canon has yet to release a pro level body, they are likely hoping to learn from the R body and lenses before introducing the higher end model.

As for APS-C, the M bodies may be it for now as far as mirrorless. We will certainly see more DSLR's in the years to come, the new ones are certainly designed and in the pipeline already.
 

jpcanon

I'm New Here
Aug 2, 2018
10
5
And photographers, even at their core ... will still fall victim to their innermost demons... im talking about pixel popping and the inevitable MTF charts.

EF is dead. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Its the same story, so predictable, so Japanese. lol

3-5 more years probably of steadily declining EF lens releases or projects moved over now to RF.

Canon said it themselves; do I need to repost the white paper? LOL its TEXTBOOK classic business communications for: "heres why were screwing our customers, will be forcing you into new purchases into the future and why you will like it.
 

Don Haines

Beware of cats with laser eyes!
Jun 4, 2012
8,262
1,918
Canada
And photographers, even at their core ... will still fall victim to their innermost demons... im talking about pixel popping and the inevitable MTF charts.

EF is dead. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Its the same story, so predictable, so Japanese. lol

3-5 more years probably of steadily declining EF lens releases or projects moved over now to RF.

Canon said it themselves; do I need to repost the white paper? LOL its TEXTBOOK classic business communications for: "heres why were screwing our customers, will be forcing you into new purchases into the future and why you will like it.
And how many RF lenses have been launched in the last year, and how many EF lenses? Why is it so hard to see that it is not either A or B, but that Canon wishes to sell A and B?
 
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Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
Mar 25, 2011
15,696
874
And how many RF lenses have been launched in the last year, and how many EF lenses? Why is it so hard to see that it is not either A or B, but that Canon wishes to sell A and B?
When you read the Canon white paper, its pretty evident that they believe that the RF lenses are superior to EF, and hope that they catch on. I certainly expect to see several more RF lenses come out next year, apparently, they are telling the reviewers at DPR to expect more next year. Just the fact that they are putting out lenses in the $2K - $3K price range tells me that a higher level camera or cameras are on the way, and possibly some RF big white lenses that will be announced when they introduce a top of the line mirrorless.

It all depends on sales volumes.
 

Maximilian

The dark side - I've been there
Nov 7, 2013
2,738
588
Germany
Sure I will keep calm at take pictures with my 6D.
About timeline: My quess is one more iteration of 1D and 5D series - that will be 3 - 5 years from now.
Personally I don't think we will se more prosumer 80D - 7D DSLRs. My guess is that it will be an R-series - the one we saw today maybe - even that it is not so much for sports as the 7D mkII
I am with you that there will be one more generation of the 5D and 1D series - at least.
So if we talk about one generation and even if this one is introduced in 2019 they'll stay for another 4 - 6 years.
And when Canon is deciding to let the classical EOS system die then they would make at least one body like they did with the EOS-1V in analog times that will be sold and serviced for another few years.

As for the prosumer APS-C market:
I don't see a Canon prosumer MILC so soon on the horizon. If I were Canon I would start to build up my RF FF system up to that point where all pros/prosumers that want/need FF would be going into that system. Meaning there should be a high MP 5DS/r successor and a 1DX equivalent first, maybe also a 5D4 equivalent, which will take some 2 to 4 years in release time IMO. And don't forget new lenses to be released, too.
During this time Canon won't be able to compete with the aging 7D2 against Nikons APS-C prosumer cameras.
Conclusion: there will also be a 7D3.

As for a 90D, maybe you are right here that there'll be no successor and Canon would lead customers here to the 7D3 (or the EOS M5 Mk2).

And for the consumer DSLRs:
As long as there are pro and prosumer DSLRs Canon will not drop this big market, as sales seems to be still quite good.
Of course maybe reduction in the number of models, maybe longer life cycles or so, surely no more great EF-S lenses but a longer life than you expect.

So my prediction: at least 10 more years of EOS/EF FF products, maybe a few less for EOS APS-C.
 
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bbb34

EOS T7i
Jul 24, 2012
89
86
Amsterdam
As Don said, Canon will sell EF products as long as there is significant demand.

The EOS-1v (film) was produced and sold until 2008. (1D mk 3 and 5D mk 2 were in the 2008 portfolio).
 

fullstop

EOS 6D MK II
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?



My expectation is:


*Slappy End* is near. :)
 

Maximilian

The dark side - I've been there
Nov 7, 2013
2,738
588
Germany
well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?
IMO you can also cancel the 5DS/R II. If I were Canon this would be my next EOS R, let's call it EOS RS.
Reasons: Aimed on Studio and Landscape. With dual slot and high enough frame rate at wedding/event, too. So EVF is no disadvantage over OVF.
And why develop two cameras aiming at the same market segment.
I also don't think that we'll see a 6D III. But maybe a 7D IV.
And for sure a "1D-X F" (=Final implementation) after the IV. Maybe even a 5D F as well, as it is a different market segment.

By the way: I don't know about an EOS 900D. I suppose a typo and that you mean 800D. Maybe add the US name for it here as well.
 

BeenThere

EOS 6D MK II
Sep 4, 2012
915
262
well, let's play: which of the following future Canon EOS mirrorslapper models do you think we'll still see ... ?



My expectation is:


*Slappy End* is near. :)
I guess I would delete the bottom half of your expectation list, (below 7d3) and 6d3 but you may have it right. I think Canon wants the bottom of this list in the M camera. They will need to follow demand.
 

Maximilian

The dark side - I've been there
Nov 7, 2013
2,738
588
Germany
Would the non-LPF version be the EOS RSR?
Agreed. But if they follow Nikon here and don't deliver an High MP+AA camera anymore but only without AA I'd go for the classical naming according to the 1Ds (No matter if big or small letters but without the extra R).