There will be no mirrorless camera body announced ahead of Photokina

[scyrene]

instead of taking 3 shots and to process that in a software to get a picture with good dynamic range that can be achieved with one shot in a camera that has better dynamic range.

Aside from your personal attacks on other forum members' intelligence (which is crossing a line in my opinion), this bears scrutiny. The difference in DR between current Canon and Sony bodies is (someone chime in with the exact figures please) about 1 stop at base ISO, correct? As people have said on these forums for a while, the number of shots that will make a difference is pretty small. It's better to have more, but most high DR scenes still have far more than any current sensor can record in a single shot. So you're considerably overstating Sony's advantage.

 

[RGF]

Was this Canon's plan all along or did they see the Nikon Z6 and Z7 and decided to go back the drawing board? Just kidding (95% kidding)

 

[ahsanford]

It’s entirely possible that the AF and buffer nuances aren’t software-related and will exist on production cameras. They act much like the Sony 2G cameras (A7II, a7rii, a7sii), which isn’t bad for Nikon’s first attempt in the market.

AF nuances on the N7 would appear to be a certainty.

What I'd like to know is what this means:

• From Nikon: AF sensitivity is -1 to +19 EV (-4 to +19 EV with low-light AF)
  
  
• From DPR (I believe pulled from the launch day materials): "the Z 7 offers subject tracking (though it doesn't behave in the same way as the 3D Tracking system that we enjoy in Nikon's DSLRs) and it's sensitive down to -3EV on lenses with apertures of F2 and faster"

Without a manual, we can't confirm (a) what low-light mode is and its requirements are (native lenses? fast lenses? etc.) and (b) what happens when you use something slower than f/2, i.e. any zoom. Does the focusing fall off a cliff?

What does the wedding photographer do who is packing a 24-70 f/2.8 and doesn't want to / cannot fire a flash? AF assist from the speedlite apparently does not work with this camera.

So.... yeah. Nuances. Curious to see what those look like in real life use-cases.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Was this Canon's plan all along or did they see the Nikon Z6 and Z7 and decided to go back the drawing board? Just kidding (95% kidding)

If Canon wasn't planning on releasing until 9-12 months from now, small things could still be folded into the camera based on the Nikon tell. Think firmware, think price, think kitting strategies (2nd battery or adaptor in the box) -- that kind of stuff.

But I don't think they could reverse course like any of these:

• Go from 'all in on full EF body' to a thin mount design
• Jam a second card slot in
• Go from an EVF free design to an integral EVF design
• Put a higher grade shutter inside to unlock higher fps

...all of the above would likely represent a major expense and (more importantly) a major delay to market to pursue.

- A

 

[3kramd5]

Aside from your personal attacks on other forum members' intelligence (which is crossing a line in my opinion), this bears scrutiny. The difference in DR between current Canon and Sony bodies is (someone chime in with the exact figures please) about 1 stop at base ISO, correct? As people have said on these forums for a while, the number of shots that will make a difference is pretty small. It's better to have more, but most high DR scenes still have far more than any current sensor can record in a single shot. So you're considerably overstating Sony's advantage.

It depends on who does the measuring, since there is repeatable measurement error associated with the methodology.

For the sake of discussion, I'll cite DXO. Typical disclaimer: their composite, black-box weighted scoring system is bogus, but their underlying data is typically thorough and systematically gathered.

Also, a note from their own description: A [Dynamic Range] of 12 EV is excellent, with differences below 0.5 EV usually not noticeable.

Measurements (maximum)
Canon EOS 5D mk IV - 12.6Ev
Nikon D850 - 13.55Ev
Sony A7Riii - 13.5Ev

There is less than 1 stop between the best performers (in this sole dimension) from the three major full frame brands. If you extract the additional stop of DR from the 5D IV dual pixel raw subframe there is essentially no difference, but unless canon makes a direct way to use it I’d say it’s fair to ignore. Regardless, unless one is barely altering exposure between bracketed shots, 3 versus 1 is a ludicrous claim.

 

[ahsanford]

Was this Canon's plan all along or did they see the Nikon Z6 and Z7 and decided to go back the drawing board? Just kidding (95% kidding)

However, now that Nikon's tell is out there... If Canon actually was preparing both a thin mount FF design and a full EF design, knowing Nikon's design doesn't include a full F mount body may change Canon's plans.

This is a leap, but hear me out.

Perhaps 'Nikon offers both a thin and full mount and we don't' ranked highly on Canon's Threat arm of a SWOT analysis. Canon might defensively design a full EF mirrorless to block that threat, and now that Nikon isn't offering one they could put that design in mothballs and halt efforts there.

(But I still see a thin + thick body plan as an offensive one, so if Canon has put serious development into both it stands to reason that they would launch both.)

- A

 

[clicstudio]

After all this "Nikon failed" discussions, may be they thought about a prolongation of their mirrorless development?
Well - let's see. As long as it's focussing correctly I think Canon is in for a good release of a mirrorless fullframe camera.

How did Nikon fail? The Z7 seems great. All the reviews are mostly positive.
As far as Canon. They need to step it up and dethrone Sony. I hope they also do something for the Pros. Like a big body with built-in grip and big screen.

 

[ahsanford]

Very few major corporations practice Agile for hardware. Bosch does with some of its product. Does canon?

+1. I design hardware. Hardware with Agile is possible not ideal.

Agile is tailored for software and can struggle with hardware. Hardware has some unavoidable tasks can't be subdivided into tiny little tasks and partially completed / continuously improved like software. Capital tooling startup, certifications approvals with outside parties, clinical trials, etc. tend to be a 'we're still waiting on it this epic 0 to switch to a 1' in team meetings. Further, some industries have a ridiculous orthodoxy to their product development processes, there could be an industry-wide standardization of design deliverables, etc. and they were not developed with Agile principles in mind. Those realities tend to be the bane of Agile hardware development.

Doesn't mean it cannot work. It just means that you can't shoe-horn those processes into mature industries, and the payoff in time to market may not be the same as software. It's not a magic bullet.

- A

 

[RGF]

If Canon wasn't planning on releasing until 9-12 months from now, small things could still be folded into the camera based on the Nikon tell. Think firmware, think price, think kitting strategies (2nd battery or adaptor in the box) -- that kind of stuff.

But I don't think they could reverse course like any of these:

• Go from 'all in on full EF body' to a thin mount design
• Jam a second card slot in
• Go from an EVF free design to an integral EVF design
• Put a higher grade shutter inside to unlock higher fps

...all of the above would likely represent a major expense and (more importantly) a major delay to market to pursue.

- A

Actually I don't think they will change anything in a major way - just like to poke the bear occasionally. I hope you noticed that I said was 95% kidding. Canon may have a slight course correction (or may decide to delay a product launch or accelerate an announcement) in response to Nikon. but in the end I think they will stick with their game plan at least in the short term.

If would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at their strategy meetings

 

[Respinder]

That their issues with AF (and the small buffer) are limited to pre-production is merely an assumption. Given that the Z7 is due to be available in September, it’s unlikely that the camera is not in production now. Software may still be in work, but how long do they have to wrap it up before they must get it loaded, QC the cameras, and ship them out?

It’s entirely possible that the AF and buffer nuances aren’t software-related and will exist on production cameras. They act much like the Sony 2G cameras (A7II, a7rii, a7sii), which isn’t bad for Nikon’s first attempt in the market.

Very possible. Hopefully not the case, as there have been mixed reports on AF by various people using the camera. We heard that the NYC event where they showed off the camera was a very poorly lit area for showcasing AF performance. We also heard that the firmware was more of a "0.5x" version, rather than a polished "0.9x" version we'd expect to see a month before the camera's release. So either, the final production cameras will have these issues, or Nikon botched the marketing (likely) and provided pre-production cameras that were simply not as polished as they should've been.

 

[Respinder]

I doubt it will be worth the wait at this point. Nikon's Z6 and Z7 will be out, Sony has the A7 III and A7r III, and the A7s III will probably beat Canon's first FF mirrorless to market. The chances of Canon catching up and surpassing all of these options are pretty slim IMHO, and to find out you'll have to wait another year, by which time the Sony A7r IV will probably be released.

The question of "catching up" is entirely up to Canon. Canon has the expertise, the money in the bank and the patents to easily outperform anyone in the market. The question is whether they choose to do so. The answer to the question is entirely up to them.

 

[mcs130]

If nothing else, one might wonder if Canon is watching the Nikon FF Mirrorless "debacle" play out to hopefully avoid at least a few of the mistakes that Nikon appears to have made. I get that "production" units are not in the hands of the buying user community yet, but wow - the YouTube Review sites have been lit up on this one. Almost makes the "DR failure" of the 6D Mark II release hysteria seem tame by comparison. (Ironically some of those same bashers from a year ago now laud the 6D Mark II as one of the best Vlogging bodies out there)... I don't do video, so I don't care.

 

[clicstudio]

Continue reading...

I would like to see 2 different bodies from Canon. One normal, skinny, light and small and a big one with a thick, hefty grip, built-in vertical grip and a bigger, 3.5" full touch LCD screen like a smart phone. Also Eye-controlled Focus like the 1992 EOS 5. Technology has changed so much, they can really make it work now...
Also lots of AF points throughout the whole sensor, like the Sony A7R III.
Let's hope they do something amazing.

 

[3kramd5]

We also heard that the firmware was more of a "0.5x" version, rather than a polished "0.9x" version we'd expect to see a month before the event. So either, the final production cameras will have these issues, or Nikon botched the marketing (likely) and provided pre-production cameras that were simply not as polished as they should be.

I find it more likely that the software is less mature than it should be for a product release next month (i.e. that the marketing schedule was unrealistic). With all the buildup and hype and pomp and circumstance surrounding the event, I imagine getting the cream of the crop into the hands of the early reviewers would have been priority number one. Were there some cameras running 0.5 and others running 0.9? If so someone should be fired

In any case, we are all just guessing I how much of the AF performance limited by software, as opposed to hardware and/or know-how. Nikon has little experience with OSPDAF. Could just be a learning curve they’ll climb with the successor products.

 

[clicstudio]

The question of "catching up" is entirely up to Canon. Canon has the expertise, the money in the bank and the patents to easily outperform anyone in the market. The question is whether they choose to do so. The answer to the question is entirely up to them.

that's the problem with Canon. They wait too long between releases. Apple has the same problem agains Samsung, Big German car makers take too long too, companies like Hyundai and Kia release new updated models much more quickly. Sony knows the market is a lot faster than it used to be. A cell phone could last you 3 years or more bur people want a new one once a year. If they could have one every six months, they would also buy it,
Nobody wants to wait anymore. There is no need. Sony did it first, Nikon second, Canon needs to step it up and blow them away, but not with a half-ass system with an EF mount. It needs to be something dramatic and future-ready.

Maybe the "R" is for R-Mount. If that is the case, I would release the camera along with a 50mm 1.4 R, a 24-70 2.8 R and a 70-200 2.8 R.

One can only dream

 

[ahsanford]

Regardless, unless one is barely altering exposure between bracketed shots, 3 versus 1 is a ludicrous claim.

I agree with you in general (I'm no DR nut), but Sony and Nikon seem to have on-chip ADC hotness in everything they sell.

Canon does not.

So your statement is factually accurate, but it's hardly a salve for amateur landscapers packing a 6D2 with old technology onboard -- those folks actually are a few stops behind the pack. And the decision to not include it after the migration to on-chip began means that the 6D line won't get on-chip base ISO performance until what, 2021?

(I'm harping on what I believe to be a miss of a decision for Canon. I'm sure that hasn't stopped the 6D2 from selling well.)

- A

 

[RGF]

However, now that Nikon's tell is out there... If Canon actually was preparing both a thin mount FF design and a full EF design, knowing Nikon's design doesn't include a full F mount body may change Canon's plans.

This is a leap, but hear me out.

Perhaps 'Nikon offers both a thin and full mount and we don't' ranked highly on Canon's Threat arm of a SWOT analysis. Canon might defensively design a full EF mirrorless to block that threat, and now that Nikon isn't offering one they could put that design in mothballs and halt efforts there.

(But I still see a thin + thick body plan as an offensive one, so if Canon has put serious development into both it stands to reason that they would launch both.)

- A

I have heard that Nikon is preparing a Z5 (pro) model - perhaps that is the thick body with dual card slots and bigger battery?? Maybe Canon is planning on introducing Pro and ML-only models at the same time?

 

[3kramd5]

I agree with you in general (I'm no DR nut), but Sony and Nikon seem to have on-chip ADC hotness in everything they sell.

Canon does not.

So your statement is factually accurate, but it's hardly a salve for amateur landscapers packing a 6D2 with old technology onboard -- those folks actually are a few stops behind the pack. And the decision to not include it after the migration to on-chip began means that the 6D line won't get on-chip base ISO performance until what, 2021?

(I'm harping on what I believe to be a miss of a decision for Canon. I'm sure that hasn't stopped the 6D2 from selling well.)

- A

Agreed; I specifically limited my post to the current “best.” Also, things like pattern noise, artifacting of AF-masked pixels in high contrast, etc. were not addressed.

Whether it’s due to the ADC or not, the 6D2 is about 2.5Ev behind the pack leader.

 

[ahsanford]

Actually I don't think they will change anything in a major way - just like to poke the bear occasionally. I hope you noticed that I said was 95% kidding. Canon may have a slight course correction (or may decide to delay a product launch or accelerate an announcement) in response to Nikon. but in the end I think they will stick with their game plan at least in the short term.

If would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at their strategy meetings

The only screeching of nails on a chalkboard at Canon leading to a 'student body right' sort of course correction would be:

• If Nikon went F mount and thin mount on mirrorless and Canon wasn't planning to do the same. If you really want Full EF mirrorless and Canon doesn't make it, Nikon making one of their own would surely spur Canon to do the same.
  
  
• Someone launches a curved / variable- curved sensor setup and it actually works (without major strings attached). That's a lens physics game-changer, if you will, and truly small high quality lenses could be made.
  
  
• Canon starts to see data that Sony is actually flipping pros in larger numbers, and not in these lull times for Canon when big new products aren't being launched. If Sony continues to do well with the A7 against the headwinds of the N6/N7 launch, a future Canon FF mirrorless launch, etc. Canon may have to go to the mattresses in get in a value knife-fight. (We should want this as Canon users.)
  
  
• Someone makes a computational multi-lens onboard non-ILC camera that works really well and becomes some social media phenomenon. (What Light could have been.)

- A

 

[ahsanford]

I have heard that Nikon is preparing a Z5 (pro) model - perhaps that is the thick body with dual card slots and bigger battery?? Maybe Canon is planning on introducing Pro and ML-only models at the same time?

Z7 = D850
Z6 = D6XX / D750 level (Cheaper, fewer AF points and a few other bells and whistle were left out compared to the Z7)

Logically, their top-line would be Z8 or Z9, not Z5.

- A