When/How to sell your 5D Mark II?

[TexPhoto]

Many of us 5D II owners are going to sell to pay for the new 5D III. But when? How?

Obviously November 2011 might be a good time, but must i sell today? Can i wait a month or two (or three) to get my 5DIII in hand first? I have a back-up body to get me throughout the gap, but it's no 5DII.

For me straight to eBay ( I live in a small town far from the city), but for you? And should I sell my 24-105 with it?, or separately? (I am getting another lens, and don't need it) How about my vertical grip. Sell Body, Grip and Lens as a kit or separately?

What am I missing?

 

[neuroanatomist]

It's still unclear it the BG-E6 works with the 5DIII - initially it was listed as compatible, then changed. That might make selling it separately (or keeping it) worth considering. Else, try selling as a competitively priced package. If new 5DII prices fall further, it'll get harder.

I'm fortunate enough to have funds for the 1D X outright, so I'll be selling the 5DII and BG-E6 to offset a future lens purchase, meaning I can afford to be patient.

 

[jalbfb]

This is a very good question and reading the tea leaves of what will happen with each camera model can be difficult. I will more than likely (>95% chance) be getting the Mark III over the next few months. A great part of me wants to pre-oder now (my heart), but my brain keeps telling me to wait and see what the actual camera reviews are like when they are shipped to those who pre-ordered. At that point I will feel less guilty and can justify to my brain that getting the camera was OK. At that point I will sell my 5DII and live with what the market will bear at that point in time. If prices for the 5DII changes either way after that or if the Mark III's price drops at the end of the year-I can live with that. I won't look back. AT least that's the way I look at it. I think the price of the Mark III will eventually drop by a few hundred bucks. Hopefully by the time that happens I will have had ample time to enjoy and use it and all of its new features.

 

[TexPhoto]

neuro, I had not heard that the BG-E6 might be compatible. That would be nice. I was planning to buy the new grip in a year or so when the price had come down, maybe used. That's how I bought the BG-E6 and saved about $100. Looking at the pins in photos of the new grip, it looks identical.

I sell micro-stock, and the difference between 22MP and 18 is significant. The 5DII was perfect 3 years ago, and made me switch from Nikon. I do have a 7D as my second body for sports/kids etc. Right now i think the 5DIII is perfect for me. I plan to keep the 7D and would love for the 1D IV to drop on the used market to be my 7D replacement. But I don't see it falling significantly for a long time.

jalbfb, I have a pre-order in. Thinking I can always cancel it, but the 5DII has been soooo good to me. I am willing to go on faith in Canon to a large degree.

 

[Carny]

If you can go without a camera for a while, I'd put it on craigslist now for a little more than what you would hope to get out of it. You have time to be patient. If you're from a small town it may be harder to sell, but on the other hand, if someone near you is looking for one it will also be harder to find. It's worth a shot. Plus ebay fees are pretty high.

 

[JR]

Personally I will wait to receive my 5DmkIII and then will sell the mkII on ebay or graiglist most likely. I was too emotional and could not resist buying the 5DmkIII even though my original plan was to wait and get the 1DX like Neuro... I still plan to get the 1DX though but it will ask me to get creative on the funding!

:

 

[biggles_no1]

And should I sell my 24-105 with it?, or separately? (I am getting another lens, and don't need it) How about my vertical grip. Sell Body, Grip and Lens as a kit or separately?

Personally I would not sell any lens with a camera because you will reduce the number of potential buyers. People looking to upgrade, and who already have a selection of lenses, wont usually bother bidding. (If it is a lens they alread have then its duplication, if its a lens they dont really want then its a waste of money/inconvenient to dispose of/sell on).

Other accessories, batteries, chargers grips etc, on the other hand are a different matter and will usually make your camera more attractive than cameras without those items.

 

[keithfullermusic]

Offer to sell it in this thread. You might find a buyer, and avoid eBay fees.

Admin note:

Selling on this forum is not permitted. You will receive a warning, or even a Ban.

See the Information area for rules.

 

[Dylan777]

My 2cents - If really thinking about 5D III and you have a backup camera, I think you should sell your 5D II ASAP before the price drop. I did

I live CA, Orange County. I decided to sell my 5D II on Craiglist. For less than 3hrs, the camera is sold for $1945 - and yes $45 profit went into my pocket. Bought this camera last x-mas for $1900. I used that $1945 to fund my future 5D III.

Ebay will charge you 10-12% on total. That's easily over hundred of dollar in fees, so try craiglist first.

Good Luck,

 

[Cosk]

I just found an awesome web site that has a history of Ebay sales prices.

http://www.pixel-peeper.com/cameras/?camera=19&tab=2

I ran the numbers through a basic forecasting model, using the following adjustments.
- correct for seasonality
- correct for a simple linear trend
- take the de-seasonalized, de-trended pattern of 5D sales after the 5DII launch, apply that pattern to the 5DII... then reapply seasonality and downward trend.

I did not correct for
- Economic chaos of 2008/2009
- rebates
- shipping problems

Assumptions:
The II was announced Sep 17, 2008 and began shipping 75 days later
The III was announced March 2, 2012 and I just put May 16 (75 days) as the ship date to simplify the math.

Here's what I learned:
The best months to buy a body: Jan/Feb/Mar
The best months to sell a body: May/July

In general, prices drop about 1.4% per month.

Right after the 5DII announcement there appeared to be a little sell panic and the 5Dc price dropped about $500
When the 5DII actually started shipping, there appeared to be a little buy panic (people thinking they could snap up a good deal on a 5Dc) and the price shot up, rising above the historical average.
Prices dropped again 3/4/5 months after the II began shipping because supply was high and demand calmed down.
But then the price rebounded - and a year after announcement, the price finally stabilized and began a predictable downward march.


Sell Recommendation: Sell your II May/June/July of this year



Here's what popped out of the model:

Disclaimer: Prediction is very difficult and unreliable, especially when it's about the future


Version 1.1 (I had my curves shifted a month)

 

[DanoPhoto]

Great analysis ! +1

Looking to pick up 5dii in the near future, as I am a hobbyist and not a pro/paid shooter. The extra ~$1800 can go into lenses purchases over the next year.

 

[Jamesy]

I just found an awesome web site that has a history of Ebay sales prices.

http://www.pixel-peeper.com/cameras/?camera=19&tab=2

I ran the numbers through a basic forecasting model, using the following adjustments.
- correct for seasonality
- correct for a simple linear trend
- take the de-seasonalized, de-trended pattern of 5D sales after the 5DII launch, apply that pattern to the 5DII... then reapply seasonality and downward trend.

I did not correct for
- Economic chaos of 2008/2009
- rebates
- shipping problems

Assumptions:
The II was announced Sep 17, 2008 and began shipping 75 days later
The III was announced March 2, 2012 and I just put May 16 (75 days) as the ship date to simplify the math.

Here's what I learned:
The best months to buy a body: Jan/Feb/Mar
The best months to sell a body: May/July

In general, prices drop about 1.4% per month.

Right after the 5DII announcement there appeared to be a little sell panic and the 5Dc price dropped about $500
When the 5DII actually started shipping, there appeared to be a little buy panic (people thinking they could snap up a good deal on a 5Dc) and the price shot up, rising above the historical average.
Prices dropped again 3/4/5 months after the II began shipping because supply was high and demand calmed down.
But then the price rebounded - and a year after announcement, the price finally stabilized and began a predictable downward march.


Sell Recommendation: Sell your II June/July/Aug of this year.



Here's what popped out of the model:

Disclaimer: Prediction is very difficult and unreliable, especially when it's about the future


Forecast of Ebay Sales Price for the 5DII, based on historical 5D Classic Ebay Prices:
Includes seasonality, simple linear trend, and supply/demand pattern of 5Dc in Year 1 of the 5DII launch.

Mar 2012 $1,950
Apr 2012 $1,750
May 2012 $1,800
Jun 2012 $1,950
Jul 2012 $2,000
Aug 2012 $1,950
Sep 2012 $1,750
Oct 2012 $1,350
Nov 2012 $1,450
Dec 2012 $1,500
Jan 2013 $1,250
Feb 2013 $1,400
Mar 2013 $1,450
Apr 2013 $1,550
May 2013 $1,750
Jun 2013 $1,500
Jul 2013 $1,800
Aug 2013 $1,550
Sep 2013 $1,450
Oct 2013 $1,400
Nov 2013 $1,450
Dec 2013 $1,250
Jan 2014 $1,250
Feb 2014 $1,050
Mar 2014 $1,150
Apr 2014 $1,000
May 2014 $1,450
Jun 2014 $1,250
Jul 2014 $1,200
Aug 2014 $1,100
Sep 2014 $1,300
Oct 2014 $1,150
Nov 2014 $1,300
Dec 2014 $1,200
Jan 2015 $1,150
Feb 2015 $1,050
Mar 2015 $1,000

Very empirical post - well done. I did however see a Mk.II on CL today locally that is $1400 and another one at $1500 and many in the 17-1900 range. I think the market is shifting downward pretty quickly at the moment. It may very well be good advice to hold onto it for a bit , however there is the chance that once the 5D3's are shipping it will be a bigger buyers market for the Mk.II's.

 

[vWings]

AWESOME analysis Cosk. THANKS

 

[marekjoz]

I leave my used gear in a local store and get a new one paying the difference. Using ebay and alikes would give me less loss probably, but after dealing several toys in one place you can get better prices on everything in the future. So now, I'm pretty sure after some history it doesn't make sense for mde dealing with ebay anymore.
Result: less stress, no waiting to finalize transaction, hand-to-hand trusty operation etc.

 

[mjp]

Why not keep your 5DII and save up to buy the 5DIII? And then you have a great backup camera with the 5DII.
Just a thought.

 

[editreject]

I went the eBay route and I listed it both with an auction and buy it now option. Someone bought it with the buy it now option about an hour after I had it listed. I was pleasantly surprised. I wound up losing $50 based on what I paid for it new which was less than if I had rented it during that time.

I decided to sell it right away to beat the expected surplus of used Mark IIs out there (there was a noticeable increase right after the Mark III announcement) and the expected price drop of a new Mark II.

 

[Maui5150]

Sell Recommendation: Sell your II June/July/Aug of this year.

I would disagree with that Sell Recommendation. If the numbers are somewhat accurate in the forecast, than May or July of 2013 is the best time to sell.

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

May or July of 2013 looks to have the sell price back in the 1700/1800 range, and for $200 lost, I bet the price of the 5D MK III has a bigger drop than $200 from May 2012 to May 2013.

In fact, I can imagine that this Holiday season between rebates and sales, it will be possible to get a 5D MK III for right around $3K or maybe just below... So if you can float it... Buy the 5D MK III before Christmas this year, keep the 5D MK II as a back up for a few months and then sell late spring

 

[Cosk]

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

Thanks... I double-checked the model and caught an error. I entered $1850 as the 'March' Ebay price, intending 'pre-announcement price'... the model (correctly) assumed I meant $1850 as the post-announcement price.

I just updated my original post with "Version 1.1".

But you're still right... waiting a year is a great time to sell.

Here's a graph of Predicted 5DII prices, based on the updated forecasting model:

 

[marekjoz]

While you may get between 1900 and 2000 May/Jun/July this year, the MK III will still be $3500 or there abouts.

Thanks... I double-checked the model and caught an error. I entered $1850 as the 'March' Ebay price, intending 'pre-announcement price'... the model (correctly) assumed I meant $1850 as the post-announcement price.

I just updated my original post with "Version 1.1".

But you're still right... waiting a year is a great time to sell.

Here's a graph of Predicted 5DII prices, based on the updated forecasting model:

Great. There is one different cicrumstance at this case: 5d2 is still in offer and we don't know how long.
And the other thing - if this graph will be popular in Internet, it will disturb it's contents itself, sth like Heisenberg uncertainty principle - if you follow the rules provided by the graph, then it will not have the proper values anymore

But +1 anyway. Another one when predictions will be correct.

 

[unfocused]

All this charting is interesting, but I wonder if there are factors that aren't being taken into consideration.

Since Canon USA has already dropped their price for the refurbished 5D II to $1,759, I have a hard time seeing how the ceiling for a used (no warranty) sale between two private parties can go above that. I would think that realistically, people ought to figure on at least a $100 discount from the refurbished price.

But, then again, I am always amazed at the prices people pay on eBay for used equipment. There are apparently a lot of people out there who are poorly informed consumers who don't bother to, or don't know how to, compare prices. Or maybe, it's just a different perspective, but I always feel that the value of a warranty (whether new or refurbished) should be factored in when comparing a sale from a known vendor to a private-party sale.

Given the current market prices, if I were in the market for a 5D II is would not go above $1,600 for a used model. But that's just me.