Will DSLRs be gone by 2025 and CIPA shipment volumes for first quarter

[Diko]

Here are the shipment numbers of DSLRs.
CIPA Numbers for First Quarter

Having in mind the claim that Full-frame DSLRs will be gone by 2025

What do you think? Will mirrorless be a good match for you to switch from DSLR by then?

 

[Dylan777]

Oh no, I need to sell my 200/f2 and 400/f2.8 IS II now before it too late ;D

 

[distant.star]

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The fat lady may not yet have sung in 2025, but for all practical purposes, the age of the DSLR is over.

For a year or so now I've been predicting mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. That's where the tide begins to really turn.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

There are still plenty of DSLR's around from 15 years ago, in another 10 years, there will be a lot more. I'd like to see the mirror go away, but if more and more pixels are wanted, we will be seeing 150-200 mp by then.

 

[privatebydesign]

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The fat lady may not yet have sung in 2025, but for all practical purposes, the age of the DSLR is over.

For a year or so now I've been predicting mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. That's where the tide begins to really turn.

I believe your timescale is off by some years. If the 1DX MkII comes out late this year it will only be four years old in 2020, having seen the improvements in EVF's in the last four years I don't see any way they are going to be replacing OVF's in the 1DX MkIII in another four years.

Besides, the core aspect of the EOS system is the massive investment in EF lenses that are all designed for a 44mm flange distance, that makes many of the specialist lenses retrofocus and not easily redesigned to a shorter mirrorless appropriate flange distance.

 

[neuroanatomist]

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The fat lady may not yet have sung in 2025, but for all practical purposes, the age of the DSLR is over.

For a year or so now I've been predicting mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. That's where the tide begins to really turn.

LOL. The death of the dSLR at the hands of MILCs in 5 years was predicted...7 years ago. It's not going to happen in 2020 or 2025.

 

[Orangutan]

not easily redesigned to a shorter mirrorless appropriate flange distance.

Why does mirrorless need a shorter flange distance? For some people the draw of mirrorless is a smaller/lighter device, and that would be nice. However, I look forward to the improvements in function and performance possible when the mirror goes away, even if the body size and weight don't change at all.

Also, in 10 years computer lens design and optical materials tech may advance the point where replacement optical formulas can be cranked out as needed.

 

[Orangutan]

The death of the dSLR at the hands of MILCs in 5 years was predicted...7 years ago. It's not going to happen in 2020 or 2025.

I used to think DSLRs would succumb to advancing mirrorless tech in that 5-7 year range. Now I believe it'll surprise us: there won't be a slow incremental change that leads to the death of the DSLR, but a breakthrough that propagates quickly. For example, if there's a successor to Google Glass that has the power to act as an EVF, combined with a major advance in AF; we could then attach sensors to lenses the way we attach rear lens caps, and hold the lens at whatever angle we please.

 

[Diko]

LOL. The death of the dSLR at the hands of MILCs in 5 years was predicted...7 years ago. It's not going to happen in 2020 or 2025.

Good point indeed. As every new emerging tech. There always appears to rise a prediction of the fall of an old tech. With many that was true.

But so far many technologies (such as EVFs and their lack of DR) still are immature. Ergo perhaps DSLRs will stay in the past but not as early as predicted.

Why does mirrorless need a shorter flange distance?

Now this is a very good example of a strong argument yet to be solved by the MILCs.

I'd like to see the mirror go away, but if more and more pixels are wanted, we will be seeing 150-200 mp by then.

What was this "but" for and how to relate it with "mirror" and "150-200 mp"?

IMO they don't necessarily have something in common.

Or I misinterpret what you had in mind?

 

[Bennymiata]

In answer to your question, absolutely not!

 

[YuengLinger]

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The fat lady may not yet have sung in 2025, but for all practical purposes, the age of the DSLR is over.

For a year or so now I've been predicting mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. That's where the tide begins to really turn.

Yes! And the 2024 Olympics will be on Mars! And we'll have FLYING cars!

 

[AcutancePhotography]

I don't think there will ever be a time when DSLRs are totally gone. We still have people writing with quill pens and shooting wetplate cameras.

Now will there come a time when the majority of a demographic will switch from DSLR to MICL? Well that will depend on the demographic. I think that for most casual and hobbyist shooters, yes, there will come a time. For professional photographers? Probably at some time, but not for a long time.

But in any case, there will always be a market for DSLRs, just like there is a market for buggy whips, quill pens, abacuses (abacusi? ;D)...

 

[Maximilian]

Hi Diko!

Firstly: The first hyperlink didn't work for me but I could get the right URL:
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/cipa-numbers-for-first.html

Secondly: My answer is definetly "Maybe". It's too hard to predict.
Ten years from now is a long time and if you look back ten years and see what happened... quite a lot.
Will DSLR be dead then? Surely not dead, but maybe just for nice applications like sports and other high speed tracking. Worst case DSLR will become some vintage product for

It all depends IMHO on three factors:
1. Technology: How good will be the improvement of the EVF?
2. Companies:
Will the companies see a chance to gain/keep share in the development of a full mirrorless system with fast pro lenses with modern connectivity
3. Market: Will the market follow these companies.
Will 95% use smart device cams and only 5% pros and enthusiasts use ILC or will something totally new apear (e.g. 3D holography for everyday use)

...mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. ...

Don't think so yet. The majority of sports and press photogs will still be on DSLR. Maybe 2028. Maybe I'm wrong.

Maybe photography like we do now will be dead for 95% of the people.

Let's go shooting with our current equipment and spend our thoughts and money for 2024 gear later

 

[YuengLinger]

Which system has the smaller carbon footprint?

 

[dolina]

Nice headline, clickbait. ;D

 

[privatebydesign]

not easily redesigned to a shorter mirrorless appropriate flange distance.

Why does mirrorless need a shorter flange distance? For some people the draw of mirrorless is a smaller/lighter device, and that would be nice. However, I look forward to the improvements in function and performance possible when the mirror goes away, even if the body size and weight don't change at all.

Also, in 10 years computer lens design and optical materials tech may advance the point where replacement optical formulas can be cranked out as needed.

It doesn't. But why make lenses more complicated, bigger, heavier and more expensive than they need to be? Also, to suggest "optical formulas can be cranked out as needed" illustrates a gross misunderstanding of manufacturing, designing things is comparatively easy and cheap, making them in the required numbers to the required specs isn't.

I don't see Canon moving away from the EF lens line soon, if ever. If they were going to do that then they could have done so in a measured way with the Cine line where the flange distance is much more flexible, but they didn't.

 

[Orangutan]

But why make lenses more complicated, bigger, heavier and more expensive than they need to be?

What I meant is why not just make an EF-compatible (or EF-S compatible) mirrorless? Why is does a mirrorless body require a new lens line? It doesn't unless smallest/lightest is the top priority for mirrorless. For pro/enthusiast it need not be.

Also, to suggest "optical formulas can be cranked out as needed" illustrates a gross misunderstanding of manufacturing, designing things is comparatively easy and cheap, making them in the required numbers to the required specs isn't.

Given the pace of tech advancement, 10 years is a very long time. I can easily see a few Ph.D. dissertations leading to complete end-to-end automated lens design and manufacture. Optics is physics: the only "art" in optical design is to compensate for inadequate computational methods, and computational problems continue to fall by the wayside.

I don't see Canon moving away from the EF lens line soon, if ever.

Neither do I, and that was part of my point: just build EF-compatible pro/enthusiast mirrorless, and put it whatever size body you want.

 

[old-pr-pix]

Will DSLR's be gone by 2025? Well, I still have fully useable Canon A-1 and F-1 and Contax RTS III, vintage 1978 or so. So, my answer is no - they won't be gone. I think a more appropriate question would be: "Will DSLRs still represent the dominant share of interchangeable lens cameras shipped in 2025?" My answer to that question would be - I doubt it.

CIPA data shows DSLR's have fallen from ~5 to 1 DSLR vs. MILC shipments to currently ~3 to 1 in two years +/-. MILC's are not exactly becoming dominant; but reasonable growth anyway. The mass market is looking for easy to carry, easy to use, fun to use and share images, i.e. well connected to social media, etc. Rebels as we know them today will go away; but my guess is that serious users and pros will still rely on DSLR technology for many years.

 

[old-pr-pix]

Oops, hit post before I added credit for the graphic...http://www.personal-view.com/talks/discussion/12877/camera-sales-march-2015-data-decaying-skunk

 

[neuroanatomist]

CIPA data shows DSLR's have fallen from ~5 to 1 DSLR vs. MILC shipments to currently ~3 to 1 in two years +/-. MILC's are not exactly becoming dominant; but reasonable growth anyway.

I suggest you look again at the graph you posted. dSLR sales are shrinking, but MILC sales are not growing, they're basically flat. Yes, the MILC share of the ILC pie is getting bigger, but that's only because a big chunk of the ILC pie has been eaten by smartphones.