According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest

[pedro]

"We've had another comment (thanks) suggesting that 5D3 development was seriously hampered by the events in Japan earlier this year, and that efforts were concentrated on the 1Ds3 replacement - any 5D3 is unlikely to ship before the end of 2012 at the very earliest. "

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_5d3.html

 

[Shnookums]

Another very good news in favor of a 1Ds replacement. I hope that the earthquake will not have hampered the quality of the new 1Ds...

 

[Ivar]

5D3 is unlikely to ship before the end of 2012 at the very earliest.

I think it is too dramatically phrased, I would say it is the latest, not earliest.

What makes timing estimates more complex is competition, even from Canon viewpoint (meaning even they have no precise idea but rather estimates). They most certainly have some sort of answer ready when forced by the competition.

 

[mbiedermann]

Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

 

[Chewy734]

Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

A rumor is just that... a rumor. But, at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if it were true. I remember this time last year and "rumors" were telling us the 5D3 would be available in December of 2010. Look at where we are now, nearly a year later, and no official announcements.

 

[pedro]

Agreed - That rumor smells to me as coming from someone playing games with us poor souls longing for the 5D3. There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

poor souls...nay...while my 30D gently clicks...but curious about high iso abilities and focus system...whenever it may hit the street, I'll let it walk about 18 month into its product cycle reading early adopters reports...meanwhile the price tag will get a bit lower as well ;-)

 

[Loswr]

There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

Now, that statement smells to me as coming from some poor soul longing for a 5DIII.

I have never bought into the idea that Canon will release a 5DIII before a 1DsIV. The latter is older, more in need of an upgrade, and will likely be released first. If (a big IF) we se an announcement for a 1DsIV coming out soon, that puts the 1Ds line on a 4-year replacement, so if that gap trickles down to the 5D line, late 2012 makes perfect sense.

 

[gene_can_sing]

Let see, Sony is set to release some very good Cameras according to early tests of their cheapo $600 camera,

http://www.eoshd.com/content/3784/nex-5n-demolishes-ep-3-at-high-isos-even-beats-5d-mk-ii-nikon-d7000

and Nikon is set to release some new full frame DSLRs soon. Canon has to react.

Remember, Canon won't lose the users who are heavily vested in equipment (like myself). What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back. And if there is a 1 1/4 year lag time till the next 5D3, that's a lot of newbies going to Sony and Nikon for a lifetime of usage.

I seriously doubt Canon will wait that long. Many people will be pissed off, including myself. The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.

 

[Loswr]

Remember, Canon won't lose the users who are heavily vested in equipment (like myself). What they will lose are all the newbies...

I seriously doubt Canon will wait that long. Many people will be pissed off, including myself. The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.

How many newbies jump right into a FF dSLR? Even if we see neither a 1DsIV nor a 5DIII this year or early next, I know we'll still see a T4i/650D in 1Q2012. The Rebel line pays Canon's bills.

Why get pissed off? Does the gear you have right now suck so bad that you are desparate for a replacement? My 7D and 5DII still take good pictures. Yes, I've got a wad of cash just waiting for a 1DsIV...but until one is available, I'll keep happily clicking away, thank you very much.

 

[bvukich]

The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.

That's not an entirely fair assessment of his statements.

Besides the satisfaction of making a correct prediction, I doubt that delay would make anyone actually happy. I think that he is making a very realistic, though slightly pessimistic, prediction. He also has sound logic to back up that prediction.

That being said... God I hope he's wrong! I want a 5D3 to be released SO badly, enough that it probably clouds my objectivity in evaluating rumors, greatly favoring my desires over reality.

 

[Rincewind]

Well I for one am desperate for it to come out now, not that I will buy it immediately. By about May next year it will have good availability and the price has found its level. That is when I want to buy a new camera. You can see from my sorry little footer below and a short thread from a few weeks ago about hot pixels that my old kit is getting rather long in the tooth. Some of us are holding out desperately for this camera...

 

[TexPhoto]

All the Facts we have:
1. The first 5D was replaced after 3 years.
2. Dude, That was like 3 years ago!
3. There was a catastrophe in Japan the like of which we have not seen before.

So, Is it possible: "According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest" Yes. In fact we can say for absolute certain it will be before, during, or after late 2012.

 

[awinphoto]

There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

Now, that statement smells to me as coming from some poor soul longing for a 5DIII.

I have never bought into the idea that Canon will release a 5DIII before a 1DsIV. The latter is older, more in need of an upgrade, and will likely be released first. If (a big IF) we se an announcement for a 1DsIV coming out soon, that puts the 1Ds line on a 4-year replacement, so if that gap trickles down to the 5D line, late 2012 makes perfect sense.

But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..

 

[Loswr]

But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..

Agreed - but Canon can point to current sales figures for the 5DII that are still quite high. On Amazon.com, the 5DII is the best selling full frame dSLR, and the 19th best-selling dSLR on their top-100 list (next highest FF is the Nikon D700 at #30). Gene_can_warble frequently begs us to stop buying 5DII's so Canon will release a 5DIII, and while I don't think that Canon has the 5DIII wrapped up with a bow and ready to ship tomorrow, he's right that sales of the 5DII are still strong - perhaps strong enough to deflate the urgency of releasing a 5DIII.

 

[TAR]

it is just a matter of time , all depends on nikon d700 replacement.

 

[unfocused]

A little chilling out is in order here. Plus, a little logic.

Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV.

Has the competition released a superior product that Canon must compete with? Lots of rumors, but nothing yet from Nikon and there are no other competitors at the 5D or IDs level.

Where is the fiercest competition right now? Not in the DSLR lines, that's for sure. It's in the mirror-less and in the "enthusiast prestige-rangefinder" category (FUJI).

Where is the profit? Sorry to disappoint, but it's not in any full frame DSLR, it's in Point-and-Shoots, Mirror-less and entry-level DSLRs.

What REAL deadlines might Canon be facing? I see only two plausible and immovable deadlines: the 2012 Summer Olympics and Photokina 2012. It's not an absolute must that Canon has to have new product available for either event, but if they have products in the pipeline, they'd most likely want to have something available for both.

Is there a real competitor in the DSLR line that has actually been announced? The only one I am aware of is Sony's a77, which is a competitor to the 7D and not to any full-frame model.

If Canon is feeling any pressure at all, it is likely to be on the mirror-less, G12/rangefinder and 7D fronts, since that is where competitors are showing up.

So, don't shoot the messengers. Neuro's analysis may not be popular, but it's probably correct.

 

[Enrico]

Has anyone read through any annual report or anything like that?
In all these threads we all tend to base our arguments on what bodies sells the most:
xxxD vs xxD vs 7D vs 5D2 vs 1Dx
(based on profit, not pure turn around)

Has anyone done this homework and can tell me (us). Beacause if I knew those figures, and could give ourselves an estimate on the pure marketing value in a new 1D and many white lenses during the Olympics... than we could produce fabulous rumors as well...

Personally I don't have a clue, but I have learned that I am often wrong when guessing which body / car whatever is bringing the most dollars to the company.

 

[awinphoto]

But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation. The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..

Agreed - but Canon can point to current sales figures for the 5DII that are still quite high. On Amazon.com, the 5DII is the best selling full frame dSLR, and the 19th best-selling dSLR on their top-100 list (next highest FF is the Nikon D700 at #30). Gene_can_warble frequently begs us to stop buying 5DII's so Canon will release a 5DIII, and while I don't think that Canon has the 5DIII wrapped up with a bow and ready to ship tomorrow, he's right that sales of the 5DII are still strong - perhaps strong enough to deflate the urgency of releasing a 5DIII.

Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out? I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)? In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera? Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units? Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...). I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..

 

[Loswr]

Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out? I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)? In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera? Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units? Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...). I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..

No idea what sales of the 5D were like when the 5DII came out, but given that it was the only 'affordable' FF camera for quite a while, it was probably still doing quite well (but then, the D700 release just preceeded the 5DII, and probably impacted Canon's timing, just as a D800 could, if Nikon releases that).

I agree that a 5DIII will certainly generate more profit for Canon than a 1DsIV - much more, and I doubt Canon will sell more than a million units of any 1Ds camera in a fiscal year. The real questions are whether the differential between a 5DIII and the current 5DII profits would be higher than profit from a 1DsIV, and how much Canon feels releasing a 5DIII before a 1DsIV will hurt 1DsIV sales.

My personal guess is that there will not be much of a time lag between 1DsIV and 5DIII announcements. They might even make a big splash and announce them simultaneously. My feeling is that unlike the current models, the two new models will not share the same sensor, and that in addition to the pro build and other features, the 1DsIV will offer a higher resolution sensor than the 5DIII. Knowing Canon's past history of using AF performance to differentiate among models, I also suspect they'll handicap the 5DIII with a less-than-stellar AF system. While I doubt they'll recycle the 5D's system yet again (God, I hope not, although I wouldn't put it past them!), I speculate it will still have 9 + 6 points, but all the user-selectable ones will be cross-type.

 

[Flake]

"Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII. The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.