- Feb 9, 2019
You're ignoring 34 years worth of sales data for the EF mount, and 17 years worth of sale data for the EF-S mount.
For 17 years there has been a clear upgrade path from APS-C to FF EOS DSLRs. Canon knows exactly how much of what they have sold and for the most part knows who bought it.
If all people are dying to buy another lens, why has Canon only sold 1.4 EOS lenses for each EOS body they've sold over the past 34 years?
The vast majority of DSLR/MILC buyers buy one lens with the camera and that's it. Period.
The 0.4 lenses per 1 body have all been bought by a very small number of us that have bought 3-4 lenses (bought new) for each body we've bought new. Used purchases and sales make no difference whatsoever to Canon.
I agree with your point and I think Canon has changed its policy to focus on people with a> completely pro, who can afford very costly gears or have lot of gears which they cant get rid off or b> who wants to stay with whatever they have till those are gone with aging c> beginner marker ..may be its because of what they want or may be because they started late on mirrorless and still struggling to speedup on middle tierThere is a very big difference now that makes those 17yr of market data very much less relevant
Namely, most people who bought an APS-C Rebel to begin with (vast majority of APS-C sales) bought it because it was the cheapest camera that offered more "pro" photos than their point and shoot or poor phone camera.
But now people are upgrading from an excellent smartphone camera, not a point and shoot. And, now there are systems that are going to be a lot cheaper than RF while also having much smaller lenses since the RF mount needs to accommodate FF lenses. These smaller systems are more attractive to people used to carrying a tiny phone around as their camera.
If they are educated on the alternatives, most of the people who bought a Rebel will likely *not* elect to buy an RF APS-C as there will be other smaller and cheaper aps-c and m43 options that have that same "pro" upgrade over their smartphone
Small, light, and cheap is what made mirrorless take off in general. The RF mount by being stuck with accommodating full frame lenses will likely always be beat in all three of these categories by competitors, it's simple physics from the larger mount.