Announcements Coming The First Week of September [CR2]

jd7

EOS R
CR Pro
Feb 3, 2013
924
289
fullstop said:
And in 2018 camera users should not have to care about fiddling around with "AF use cases" deep down in some custom settings menu. Those custom settings are just testimony that Canon is not able to build cameras that are AI-smart enough to figure out motion & tracking on their own by analyzing the scene in real-time.

Buyers like me want many small, pinpoint AF points all over frame [mirrorless!] and precisely select starting point for AF tracking [if subject in motion is detected there]. Up to now, no Canon camera is delivering what "AI-AF mode" in all of them promises. And we want Face-detect and Eye-detect AF. So far, only in one "entry level" Canon mirrorless cam [M50] ... in mid 2018. That's beyond "conservative". It is just plain stupid.

Obviously that is fine if it is what you want, but for my part it is not what I want. Sure, I want good AF tracking and things like face-detect and eye-detect are useful in the right situation, but different AF cases are useful in different situations. I wouldn't want to simply leave it to the camera to decide how it is going to operate in a given situation - I would rather have some control over that, so I would want the AF system to be at least as customisable as it is in a DSLR. I don't have a problem with going into menus to set what I want.
 

fullstop

EOS R
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
no problem, if the options are in some menu. But i really want "AI-AF" to *reliably and precisely* do the job. If it did, I would never use "One-Shot" or "Servo-AF" or any of the custom options. Unfortunately it does not, so everybody is forced to fiddle around with those AF custom settings. And I believe, many (most?) other buyers would prefer it too.

But let's see what AF functionality, performance and precision we get in Canon FF mirrorless. :)
 

rjbray01

Canon Forever
Jan 19, 2017
134
75
neuroanatomist said:
rjbray01 said:
...we are seeing an end to the growth in sales of FF cameras ...

The FF market has ssentially decelerated and next comes shrinkage.

Manufacturers don't publish model-specific data. CIPA doesn't report ILC shipments broken down by sensor size. May I ask...on what data are you basing your statements above?

Here is what looks like a sincere attempt to estimate the sales ...

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

Which contains the table

Estimated Full Frame ICL Shipments
2016 Avg 28,410 – 37,881
Jan 2017 14,153 – 18.453

This article reports CIPA ILC camera sales down 81% 2010-2016 ..

https://www.diyphotography.net/camera-sales-report-2016-lowest-sales-ever-dslrs-mirrorless/

and ends with the prediction that "some of the large camera manufacturers may disappear from the market by the end of the decade"

Whilst I'm not suggesting for one moment that Canon are likely to be one of them I think its fairly clear which way the market is moving right now ...

None of us is unfamiliar with technology providing staggering miniaturisation and cost reductions.

A reversal in the trend for this allowing mobile phone camera technology to close the gap with traditional cameras would certainly be unprecedented.
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
CR Pro
Jul 21, 2010
26,132
4,736
rjbray01 said:
neuroanatomist said:
rjbray01 said:
...we are seeing an end to the growth in sales of FF cameras ...

The FF market has ssentially decelerated and next comes shrinkage.

Manufacturers don't publish model-specific data. CIPA doesn't report ILC shipments broken down by sensor size. May I ask...on what data are you basing your statements above?

Here is what looks like a sincere attempt to estimate the sales ...

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

Which contains the table

Estimated Full Frame ICL Shipments
2016 Avg 28,410 – 37,881
Jan 2017 14,153 – 18.453

This article reports CIPA ILC camera sales down 81% 2010-2016 ..

https://www.diyphotography.net/camera-sales-report-2016-lowest-sales-ever-dslrs-mirrorless/

and ends with the prediction that "some of the large camera manufacturers may disappear from the market by the end of the decade"

Whilst I'm not suggesting for one moment that Canon are likely to be one of them I think its fairly clear which way the market is moving right now ...

None of us is unfamiliar with technology providing staggering miniaturisation and cost reductions.

A reversal in the trend for this allowing mobile phone camera technology to close the gap with traditional cameras would certainly be unprecedented.

Interesting...thanks!!
 

3kramd5

EOS R6
Mar 2, 2012
3,084
405
rjbray01 said:
neuroanatomist said:
rjbray01 said:
...we are seeing an end to the growth in sales of FF cameras ...

The FF market has ssentially decelerated and next comes shrinkage.

Manufacturers don't publish model-specific data. CIPA doesn't report ILC shipments broken down by sensor size. May I ask...on what data are you basing your statements above?

Here is what looks like a sincere attempt to estimate the sales ...

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

Which contains the table

Estimated Full Frame ICL Shipments
2016 Avg 28,410 – 37,881
Jan 2017 14,153 – 18.453

This article reports CIPA ILC camera sales down 81% 2010-2016 ..

https://www.diyphotography.net/camera-sales-report-2016-lowest-sales-ever-dslrs-mirrorless/

and ends with the prediction that "some of the large camera manufacturers may disappear from the market by the end of the decade"

Whilst I'm not suggesting for one moment that Canon are likely to be one of them I think its fairly clear which way the market is moving right now ...

None of us is unfamiliar with technology providing staggering miniaturisation and cost reductions.

A reversal in the trend for this allowing mobile phone camera technology to close the gap with traditional cameras would certainly be unprecedented.

I definitely do not doubt that they will become far less significant and that their products will become accordingly more expensive. I could see Fuji and maybe Nikon being gone. Sony and Canon will probably persist
 

Don Haines

Beware of cats with laser eyes!
Jun 4, 2012
8,265
1,946
Canada
rjbray01 said:
neuroanatomist said:
rjbray01 said:
...we are seeing an end to the growth in sales of FF cameras ...

The FF market has ssentially decelerated and next comes shrinkage.

Manufacturers don't publish model-specific data. CIPA doesn't report ILC shipments broken down by sensor size. May I ask...on what data are you basing your statements above?

Here is what looks like a sincere attempt to estimate the sales ...

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

Which contains the table

Estimated Full Frame ICL Shipments
2016 Avg 28,410 – 37,881
Jan 2017 14,153 – 18.453

This article reports CIPA ILC camera sales down 81% 2010-2016 ..

https://www.diyphotography.net/camera-sales-report-2016-lowest-sales-ever-dslrs-mirrorless/

and ends with the prediction that "some of the large camera manufacturers may disappear from the market by the end of the decade"

Whilst I'm not suggesting for one moment that Canon are likely to be one of them I think its fairly clear which way the market is moving right now ...

None of us is unfamiliar with technology providing staggering miniaturisation and cost reductions.

A reversal in the trend for this allowing mobile phone camera technology to close the gap with traditional cameras would certainly be unprecedented.

January is the worst month of the year for ALL discretionary spending in the US.


The typical consumer is in debt from Christmas and is not buying anything new.... I would be willing to bet that if you looked for the sales numbers from the month before, that you would find that they were the best month of the year....


That is a fatal flaw in the article. Basically, what it is saying is that post christmas sales of expensive cameras is worse than the average of the preceding year...
 

researcher

I'm New Here
May 30, 2015
23
7
I've been out of the loop for awhile - can anyone tell me if the upcoming FF mirrorless Canon will retain the EF mount, or is that technically impossible?
 

3kramd5

EOS R6
Mar 2, 2012
3,084
405
researcher said:
I've been out of the loop for awhile - can anyone tell me if the upcoming FF mirrorless Canon will retain the EF mount, or is that technically impossible?

It is not impossible, but nobody likely to post here can tell you whether it will, unless they want to lose their jobs.
 

Adelino

EOS RP
Jan 21, 2015
380
249
Don Haines said:
rjbray01 said:
scyrene said:
rjbray01 said:
scyrene said:
rjbray01 said:
If these announcements in September don't offer a compelling competitor product to Sony's Alpha range and any other cameras of a similar spec then I think its inevitable they will lose that momentum.

With the greatest of respect to you, people have been coming on these forums for years saying 'if Canon' don't do something soon they'll start to lose sales', and it's never happened. Why is *now* the crucial time? Each manufacturer has had its basic strategy for years - some characterise it as, Sony innovative/desperate to get a product to sell well, Canon conservative/risk averse - and we haven't seen a seismic shift in sales. Nor has the 'coming mirrorless revolution', as some have imagined it, changed the scene at more than a glacial pace.

I think from the data we have, anouncing glitzy, amazing-sounding products and getting praise from reviewers absolutely isn't the way to be a market leader, in this sector at least.

The reason now is different is because practically every potential camera buyer is already carrying an outstanding camera built into their mobile phone.

The camera sales market is shrinking : with increasingly complex camera functions being addressed by the phone capabilities.

I would expect fewer MILC sales to translate to fewer suppliers : survival of the fittest.

I don't fully understand your point, can you expand? Why is the shrinking of the overall camera market due to smartphones the reason Canon must absolutely release a world beating (however defined) FF mirrorless camera in the next few months?

They could release the best (once again, however you wish to define it) camera ever and phones would continue to eat away at the lower end of the market. A FF mirrorless camera isn't competing with phones, it's competing with other FF MILCs and FF DSLRs (and to a lesser extent, APS-C and mefium format).

But apologies if I'm misunderstanding you.

There we will have to differ - it is my belief that new mobile phones do already present a challenge to the full frame market and the gap will close relentlessly.

The larger the market the greater the number of suppliers due to economies of scale.

As a market shrinks, fewer suppliers can earn a profit from such economies of scale.

Those who survive will do so on merit, not from living on their laurels.

Whereas a rising tide carries everyone, a falling tide leaves some marooned.

In an innovate-or-survive climate such as we are now entering I personally find it difficult to imagine that an ultra-conservative strategy of remaining behind the competition is a sure fire winner.


But what if the customer is looking for a reasonably priced camera that is easy to use? The vast bulk of people out there are buying Rebels and M cameras and most of them are left in the automatic mode. All these things that we forum users fixate about mean nothing to the average user. These people don't care about what mount Canon is going to use for a FF mirrorless, which codec video is shot with, or how to properly set up the cases in the AF system...

I think that is part of the issue. Cameras, in the future will only be for enthusiasts and pros. Average person will have a four camera AI powered computational image device with easy filters for creative (for better or worse) editing, easy sharing to friends,family and strangers. The average person would wonder why ANYONE would even consider buying a "camera". For me, as an enthusiast, I want reliability and if there are new features I want them to work. Canon will provide that but prices will increase.
 

lucuias

EOS M6 Mark II
Sep 26, 2012
71
11
Penang,Malaysia
rcstudio.com.my
Most probably I would this this mirrorless body has the same sensor as 5Dmark IV but different processor which cater for high spec video feature such as more realistic video format for 4k Video,60fps for 4k(I hope),full frame read out for 4k video ,120fps for full hd.Came on canon,be once ahead of their competitor,give us 4k 60fps with realistic video format.
 

fullstop

EOS R
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
Adelino said:
I think that is part of the issue. Cameras, in the future will only be for enthusiasts and pros. Average person will have a four camera AI powered computational image device with easy filters for creative (for better or worse) editing, easy sharing to friends,family and strangers. The average person would wonder why ANYONE would even consider buying a "camera".


that's the way things are headed. It is accelerated by camera makers, who are all - to in slightly varying degrees - "ultra-conservative" and extremely slowly moving. Even in this very "Canon-friendly" forum [to avoid the "Canapolo ... " word] expectations for Canon's first FF mirrorless camera in 2018 are very low: "at best" a mirrorless version of a 2 year old mirrorslapper, not even fully competitive with "best-in-class" of today.

I find this quite telling. No excitement, no adrenaline-rush, no expectation that Canon is about to "usher in a new era". No sense whatsoever, that Canon are really trying to hard and "pushing the envelope" to bring us something new, fabulous, grand, exciting. No anticipation that photo enthusiasts and pro's will get access to "greatly expanded photographic capabilities" AND "less bulk, weight and hopefully even lower cost" than before. A new, truly 21st century-worthy camera system that makes it easier than ever to capture the images we want to get, even in challenging conditions and in technical image quality unheard of up to now. None of it. Rather to the opposite: all that most forum dwellers here [current or former Canon customers] look like little rabbits in a hole with a snake approaching - only one thought on their minds: "OMG, will I be able to mount my legacy EF lenses without a little extension tube (>adapter<)?

Quite telling for the state of affairs. Quite funny thing is, those small computational cameras that will eat the lunch of all "traditional camera bricks with fat lenses" will not come from Canon, Nikon, Fuji, Olympus, Pentax or even Sony, no they will come from Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi or some Chinese, Taiwanese, Indian start-up company. Just like "smart" phones were not coming from complacent MARKET LEADER Nokia. :)

The longer the former duopoly Canon/Nikon will stick to big, fat camera bricks with big, fat expensive ground glass bricks up front, and maybe even some mirror-and prism-shenanigans inside, the faster will the transition come upon them. And the harder will be the crushdown. Those half-assed cameras of yesteryear will then really be relegated to a market niche the size of middle- / large format film cameras today.

Adelino said:
For me, as an enthusiast, I want reliability and if there are new features I want them to work. Canon will provide that but prices will increase.

1. Every single price hike will only accelerate the spiral of death for "traditional cameras".
2. No reason to assume that fully electronic, solid state, fully sealed cameras with some well-written software should be any less "reliable" than "19th century inspired opto-mechanical apparatuses".
 

Kit.

EOS 5D Mark IV
Apr 25, 2011
2,208
1,524
rjbray01 said:
Here is what looks like a sincere attempt to estimate the sales ...

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

Which contains the table

Estimated Full Frame ICL Shipments
2016 Avg 28,410 – 37,881
Jan 2017 14,153 – 18.453
The idea of that article is that January is the slowest month for full frame camera sales, so market positions achieved by some brand during this month don't really represent its over-the-year performance.

rjbray01 said:
This article reports CIPA ILC camera sales down 81% 2010-2016 ..
https://www.diyphotography.net/camera-sales-report-2016-lowest-sales-ever-dslrs-mirrorless/
The article is BS. The inforgraphics it refers to reports that the overall digital camera sales are down 81% at the expense of non-interchangeable lens cameras. Difference in the ILCs manufactured is not that big (12.9 mln in 2010 and 11 mln in 2016) and can be explained by the effects of the earthquake alone (although the number of shipments of ILCs seems to have peaked in 2012 and is now considerably lower than then).
 

Mikehit

EOS R6
Jul 28, 2015
3,350
552
fullstop said:
1. Every single price hike will only accelerate the spiral of death for "traditional cameras".
2. No reason to assume that fully electronic, solid state, fully sealed cameras with some well-written software should be any less "reliable" than "19th century inspired opto-mechanical apparatuses".

So tell us why the camera you want will stop this decline in the market

Regards you first point - price is not the issue. It is the convenience of having a phone with a camera.
Regards the second point - reliability of solid state vs opto-mechanical is not the problem. It is how the the manufacturer designs and implements the technology and the software and the act is that Canon produce cameras with arguably the best haptics and the least number of situations were you cannot do what you were expecting it to do.
 

fullstop

EOS R
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
I believe there is a 5 year time window until computational imaging devices take over. During that time Canon and Nikon could still sell a few cameras if they would make them more compact and more affordable. Otherwise doom just comes faster. :)

Price is always an issue. "Middle class" cameras north of 2k and most new lenses above 1 grand are limiting sales to quite small "minority niches". There is no reason Canon could and should not launch a compact, decent FF MILC for USD 999 ... and FF lenses akin to EF-M lineup at moderate prices along with it. Lens prices are also the most limiting factor for sales of Sony's [and Fuji's] mirrorless systems.

Decent APS-C cameras around 500, FF around 1k - would sell *a lot* more. See success of EOS 300D and 350D [Rebel] back in the day and EOS M50 today.
 

Mikehit

EOS R6
Jul 28, 2015
3,350
552
fullstop said:
There is no reason Canon could and should not launch a compact, decent FF MILC for USD 999

What do you base that assertion on? Simply repeating it does not make it true.
Do you even know the cost of FF sensor vs APS-C?

Again (and I note you refused to address this question previously...twice): if Sony's cheapest FF MILC is $2,000 what makes you think it is feasible to make one at half they price?
This is a prime opportunity for Sony to do immense harm to the CaNikon FF MILCs by using their experience and know-how to sell a FF MILC in the $1,000 range and make development of CaNikon equivalents much less appealing. So why aren't they?
After all, you have previously claimed Canon could have done the same thing to Sony years ago.
 

fullstop

EOS R
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
whatever the cost difference between APS-C and FF sensors may currently be, it is definitely not 500.

Sony chose to go "hi price" [A7 1st gen was much less expensive] ... and the strategy does not work well. They are not reaching "critical market share mass" fast enough because of it. :)
 

Mikehit

EOS R6
Jul 28, 2015
3,350
552
fullstop said:
whatever the cost difference between APS-C and FF sensors may currently be, it is definitely not 500.
How do you know that?
Simply repeating it does not make it true.

fullstop said:
Sony chose to go "hi price" [A7 1st gen was much less expensive] ... and the strategy does not work well. They are not reaching "critical market share mass" fast enough because of it. :)
Any fool can sell goods. The skill is in selling enough of them at a profit that maintains your business.
 

fullstop

EOS R
Apr 23, 2018
1,088
153
Mikehit said:
fullstop said:
whatever the cost difference between APS-C and FF sensors may currently be, it is definitely not 500.
How do you know that?
Simply repeating it does not make it true.

MosPopX.png


24 FF C vs. 80 APS-C sensors max. yield on an 8" wafer = factor 3.3, let's make it 5 to take into account less than optimal yields. If they use larger diameter wafers in 2018, ratio will be more favorable for FF, closer to 3x.

My *guess* for production costs is 30 bucks or so for APS-C CMOS sensors and 150 for FF sensors ["ceteris paribus", eg comparable sensor designs/generations, "industry-typical" lot size etc.]. Even if it were 50 for an APS-C sensor, FF would be around 250. But i think FF sensors are lower than that.

But if you believe the delta is 500 or 1000, let's hear your data and/or assumptions. Just continuously repeating your statements without any data or reasoning behind it does not make them true. :)
 
Last edited:

BillB

EOS R
May 11, 2017
1,393
659
fullstop said:
whatever the cost difference between APS-C and FF sensors may currently be, it is definitely not 500.

Sony chose to go "hi price" [A7 1st gen was much less expensive] ... and the strategy does not work well. They are not reaching "critical market share mass" fast enough because of it. :)

I also doubt that the difference is $500 when the front end development costs of full fame mirrorless and the cost of initial production of a new full frame sensor are cranked into equation, but that is something for Canon's acecountants to work out. Canon is not going to start its mirrorless fullframe production with a low cost Super M that requires thin margin high volume production to break even. The Canon thin margin high volume mirrorless camera is the M50, a camera that no Super M will ever be able to compete with on price. And Canon is never going to generate enough volume by underselling the A7 III and whatever Nikon manages to come up with. You and Canon actually seem to agree on most things as the M50 shows. Your only disagreements may be over sensor size and battery size. :)
 

scyrene

EOS R6
Dec 4, 2013
2,898
1,046
UK
www.flickr.com
rjbray01 said:
scyrene said:
rjbray01 said:
scyrene said:
rjbray01 said:
If these announcements in September don't offer a compelling competitor product to Sony's Alpha range and any other cameras of a similar spec then I think its inevitable they will lose that momentum.

With the greatest of respect to you, people have been coming on these forums for years saying 'if Canon' don't do something soon they'll start to lose sales', and it's never happened. Why is *now* the crucial time? Each manufacturer has had its basic strategy for years - some characterise it as, Sony innovative/desperate to get a product to sell well, Canon conservative/risk averse - and we haven't seen a seismic shift in sales. Nor has the 'coming mirrorless revolution', as some have imagined it, changed the scene at more than a glacial pace.

I think from the data we have, anouncing glitzy, amazing-sounding products and getting praise from reviewers absolutely isn't the way to be a market leader, in this sector at least.

The reason now is different is because practically every potential camera buyer is already carrying an outstanding camera built into their mobile phone.

The camera sales market is shrinking : with increasingly complex camera functions being addressed by the phone capabilities.

I would expect fewer MILC sales to translate to fewer suppliers : survival of the fittest.

I don't fully understand your point, can you expand? Why is the shrinking of the overall camera market due to smartphones the reason Canon must absolutely release a world beating (however defined) FF mirrorless camera in the next few months?

They could release the best (once again, however you wish to define it) camera ever and phones would continue to eat away at the lower end of the market. A FF mirrorless camera isn't competing with phones, it's competing with other FF MILCs and FF DSLRs (and to a lesser extent, APS-C and mefium format).

But apologies if I'm misunderstanding you.

There we will have to differ - it is my belief that new mobile phones do already present a challenge to the full frame market and the gap will close relentlessly.

Whilst the world is experiencing a massive growth in the middle classes, driven by increase in wealth in developing countries we are seeing an end to the growth in sales of FF cameras ... Which represents a huge reversal from what should be happening.

There is an enormous growth in travel for instance.

The FF market has ssentially decelerated and next comes shrinkage.

The larger the market the greater the number of suppliers due to economies of scale.

As a market shrinks, fewer suppliers can earn a profit from such economies of scale.

Those who survive will do so on merit, not from living on their laurels.

Whereas a rising tide carries everyone, a falling tide leaves some marooned.

In an innovate-or-survive climate such as we are now entering I personally find it difficult to imagine that an ultra-conservative strategy of remaining behind the competition is a sure fire winner.

Oh all cameras are threatened by phones to some extent, but the high end (and that includes all FF) much less, because the people who are looking to buy them are either rich enough that it doesn't matter (they can afford to buy both), or have specific needs that a phone can't yet fulfil (e.g. focal length, true shallow depth of field, low noise, low light image quality). Your characterisation of the current market as 'innovate or survive' isn't borne out by reality - the most conservative company has consistently outperformed the more innovative ones. Nothing has changed this year compared to last year or even substantially from five years ago, so once again I wonder why the urgency? Of course, Canon innovates as much as any company, but the way they implement new technology is a bit different to, say, Sony.

Cards on the table, I think you're trotting out the same old line 'Canon needs to do what I think is best or they'll go bust', albeit in a more roundabout way than usual, and I think you're wrong. There is no evidence that putting out more innovative products is the way to increase sales, unless you know something we don't?