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Jul 20, 2010
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I see Photo Rumors has posted the latest mirrorless interchangeable lens BCN rankings for 2022. Sony #1 with 16.4%, followed by Canon with 15.9%, Sigma and Tamron #3 and #4 with just two-tenths of a percent separating them. Nikon at 13%.

Thoughts:
  • Before declaring Canon d00med, note that we are talking 1/2 percent difference.
  • Yes, I know this is Japan only.
  • I am a little surprised that Tamron ranks so close to Sigma.
  • It would be interesting to know what fraction represents M lenses vs. R lenses.
  • I'm kind of impressed that Canon ranks so high in mirrorless given that their lens lineup is not fully filled out yet.
  • The same could be said for Nikon.
  • The fact that Sigma and Tamron suck up nearly 30% of the market could help explain why Canon is not making it easy for them to use the R mount.
  • Pursuing that thought a little further, Sony could be losing one heck of a lot of sales to Sigma and Tamron.

Let the fights begin!
 
Jul 21, 2010
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As a counterpoint, BCN results on camera sales (in Japan) are also out.

#1 in MILC: Canon, 31.7% (Sony #2 at 29.4%, OM #3 at 14.3%)

#1 in DSLR: Canon, 76.8% (Nikon #2 at 17.2%, Ricoh #3 at 5.7%)

Given the lens difference being very slightly in Sony’s favor, maybe all that means is Sony sold a few more 2-lens kits.

As a point of reference, last year (2021) for MILCs Sony led with 32%, and Canon was #2 at 28%. Canon had been gaining on Sony in the MILC category for a few years, and I guessed (correctly, it seems) that 2022 would be the year Canon took away the #1 spot.
 
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Mar 25, 2011
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As a counterpoint, BCN results on camera sales (in Japan) are also out.

#1 in MILC: Canon, 31.7% (Sony #2 at 29.4%, OM #3 at 14.3%)

#1 in DSLR: Canon, 76.8% (Nikon #2 at 17.2%, Ricoh #3 at 5.7%)

Given the lens difference being very slightly in Sony’s favor, maybe all that means is Sony sold a few more 2-lens kits.

As a point of reference, last year (2021) for MILCs Sony led with 32%, and Canon was #2 at 28%. Canon had been gaining on Sony in the MILC category for a few years, and I guessed (correctly, it seems) that 2022 would be the year Canon took away the #1 spot.
The number 1 camera seller will end up selling more lenses. Look for Canon's lens sales to spiral upward as they sell more cameras.
 
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koenkooi

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Feb 25, 2015
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I see Photo Rumors has posted the latest mirrorless interchangeable lens BCN rankings for 2022. Sony #1 with 16.4%, followed by Canon with 15.9%, Sigma and Tamron #3 and #4 with just two-tenths of a percent separating them. Nikon at 13%.

Thoughts: [...]
  • It would be interesting to know what fraction represents M lenses vs. R lenses.[...]
I would like to know the complete breakdown: EF, EF-S, RF, RF-S and EF-M. I wouldn't be surprised to see that EF/EF-S sales (in units) are still bigger than RF/RF-S. Not sure where I'd but EF-M sales, the 2-lens kits were very popular in the past, so it could be 40% EF-M, 30% EF(-S), 20% RF(-S), in units. RF lenses are of course a lot more expensive, so that guestimated 20% in units sold would be a lot more when looking at the amount of Yen they brought in.

I'm also curious to see the breakdown per month, did Canon sales dip after all the lensfluencers went "OMG NO RF AT ALL!!!"? The amount of comments saying they ritually burned all their Canon gear and switched to Fuji/Sony/whatever over the lack of RF lenses in my internet bubble is huuuuuuuge. But those comments look very much like the DR and overheating comments in the past, so I find it hard to not see them as paid Sony shills. I guess I found the reason why cynical photonerds are bad at predicting global market directions :)
 
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