Canon has released a list of RF lenses that they can’t meet the demand for

David - Sydney

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The supply shortages have been a massive problem across every industry I can think of. I don’t see much motivation to create a semiconductor manufacturer in the States - especially with $15/hr minimum wage on its way in…that would drive electronic costs through the roof. So I honestly fear this is a shortage that will not end anytime soon and it has already begun to impact company values and sales projections.
Within the US, you guys just passed a USD52b semiconductor spend!
https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/8/2...ortage-funding-frontier-china-competition-act
Semiconductor costs aren't as much dependent on wage prices as say the retail clothing market as it is highly mechanised. Motivation is to be less reliant on non-US allies for key components. Costs may be higher than current chip prices though and it will take years to get these new fabs operational
 
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David - Sydney

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Blame Toyota and the JIT manufacturing system. Funniest thing is Toyota learnt their lesson about supply chains from microchips after the earthquake in Japan a few years ago, so who is the only car manufacturer currently at full production? Toyota.
JIT worked well in Japan because of the keiretsu subcontractors and the physical distance between plants. Made-in-Japan was mostly exactly that. Having duplicated supply chains and non-local suppliers significantly complicates any "pure" JIT process. Blocking the Suez Canal was another unexpected supply chain issue in general and hard to quantify

I'm not sure that Toyota have chip suppliers within their keiretsu or not. If they did then they can direct that production output wherever it made sense for the overall entity.
The biggest issue for car producers is that they aren't on the priority list with fabs as the volume is small and the value is small - especially related to the overall cost of the vehicle but critical to overall delivery. It is really hurting them badly and will influence their subcontractor's design and supply chain strategy for a long time to come.
 

jeanluc

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Oct 29, 2012
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I bought the Canon 100-500 from Adorama in March. I’ve been the “next 10” lenses for 60 days. Hopefully they get a dozen soon. ‍♂️
I ordered mine from B and H about then; took about 2 weeks or so to get it. I actually bought my 15-35, 34-70 and 70-200 f2.8 before the R5 and R6 dropped. I figured I’d switch to RF eventually and bought them over about 6 months. Back then, easy to do. I never thought the demand would ever take off like it has.
 

privatebydesign

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JIT worked well in Japan because of the keiretsu subcontractors and the physical distance between plants. Made-in-Japan was mostly exactly that. Having duplicated supply chains and non-local suppliers significantly complicates any "pure" JIT process. Blocking the Suez Canal was another unexpected supply chain issue in general and hard to quantify

I'm not sure that Toyota have chip suppliers within their keiretsu or not. If they did then they can direct that production output wherever it made sense for the overall entity.
The biggest issue for car producers is that they aren't on the priority list with fabs as the volume is small and the value is small - especially related to the overall cost of the vehicle but critical to overall delivery. It is really hurting them badly and will influence their subcontractor's design and supply chain strategy for a long time to come.
Whilst I am certainly no expert on the subject my understanding was that Toyota realized because of the chip manufacturing issues after the earthquake and tsunami that it was imperative they hold a stock of items that couldn’t be outsourced to another manufacturer and or location in a timely fashion.

That is, if a key component had a unique supplier then they had to revise JIT plans to include enough stock for a realistic restart time for that unique manufacturer should they have a catastrophic issue. Tires and alternators can be manufactured at a variety of locations and by a number of manufacturers comparatively easily and quickly so JIT holds up well for those kinds of components. Microchip manufacturing is done in very limited locations and has massive lead in time and setup costs so needs to be treated differently within the model.

Of course still having the stock you need to keep manufacturing doesn’t get around all the other knock on effects the world has seen. If you can’t get your goods transported then having them made but in the wrong location is as bad as not having them!
 
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Chaitanya

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Translate : too little orders.
Nope, that 100-500mm lens is on constant backorder. I know few photographers who placed order and had to wait 2-3 months to get that lens(from local retailers). If you want to see how bad the situation is right now just look at PC industry - GPUs and high capacity storage are almost always out of stock or are being price gouged by scalpers and retailers alike. Even for cameras some high demand cameras are being scalped(though not to the extent of PC components) for eg you can find brand new R5 on ebay for 4000$(have seen some go as high as $4500) while its usually on backorder with most big shops, same story with Sony cameras as well.
 

David - Sydney

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Whilst I am certainly no expert on the subject my understanding was that Toyota realized because of the chip manufacturing issues after the earthquake and tsunami that it was imperative they hold a stock of items that couldn’t be outsourced to another manufacturer and or location in a timely fashion.

That is, if a key component had a unique supplier then they had to revise JIT plans to include enough stock for a realistic restart time for that unique manufacturer should they have a catastrophic issue. Tires and alternators can be manufactured at a variety of locations and by a number of manufacturers comparatively easily and quickly so JIT holds up well for those kinds of components. Microchip manufacturing is done in very limited locations and has massive lead in time and setup costs so needs to be treated differently within the model.

Of course still having the stock you need to keep manufacturing doesn’t get around all the other knock on effects the world has seen. If you can’t get your goods transported then having them made but in the wrong location is as bad as not having them!
Yep, that is the standard inventory management model. 4 quadrant matrix from sole source/strategic to general commodities/multiple manufacturers and then a dedicated inventory/ordering strategy for each. The issue here is that the low value driver chips that had alternative suppliers are being smashed for orders so there is nothing to find anywhere. I remember having multiple suppliers for DRAM chips for instance and yet the whole industry had problems delivering. We were pushing the engineers to qualify more suppliers just to get some options and that took R&D effort as well taking them off other projects.

Just checked the current market and there are 5 main DRAM manufacturers now. The top 3 with 78% market share and top 5 have 98%. Qualifying 5 suppliers for each part number used is a lot of R&D effort.
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
SK Hynix Inc.
Micron Technology Inc.
Nanya Technology Corporation
Winbond Electronics Corporation
 
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Chaitanya

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Yep, that is the standard inventory management model. 4 quadrant matrix from sole source/strategic to general commodities/multiple manufacturers and then a dedicated inventory/ordering strategy for each. The issue here is that the low value driver chips that had alternative suppliers are being smashed for orders so there is nothing to find anywhere. I remember having multiple suppliers for DRAM chips for instance and yet the whole industry had problems delivering. We were pushing the engineers to qualify more suppliers just to get some options and that took R&D effort as well taking them off other projects.

Just checked the current market and there are 5 main DRAM manufacturers now. The top 3 with 78% market share and top 5 have 98%. Qualifying 5 suppliers for each part number used is a lot of R&D effort.
Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
SK Hynix Inc.
Micron Technology Inc.
Nanya Technology Corporation
Winbond Electronics Corporation
Very similar situation with Fabs and right now even Intel(who used to be the leader of fabs) is placing orders with TSMC for chips.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

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I cancelled my pre-order for the 100mm L today. I plan to get it later. I was originally going to sell my EF 100mm L but have not been using it much lately so $1500 for a new one did not make much sense.
 
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Kit.

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Do they even know yet what the demand is for the 14-35?
Of course they don't know the total demand, but I'm pretty sure that the initial preorders were larger than the first batch they are going to ship.
 

entoman

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I feared this would be a problem with the 14-35 so I actually have a 12:20am preorder placed at two camera retailers. I would typically not care that much about a camera lens, but of all my lenses, my ultra-wide is the lens I use the most for work around town. So I would like to replace my massive chunk of a lens that is the EF 16-35 f/2.8L III USM w/adaptor as soon as I possibly can. Not that I have anything against that incredible lens, but I would love to have an ultra wide I can rock on a gimbal as well as in native mount.

The supply shortages have been a massive problem across every industry I can think of. I don’t see much motivation to create a semiconductor manufacturer in the States - especially with $15/hr minimum wage on its way in…that would drive electronic costs through the roof. So I honestly fear this is a shortage that will not end anytime soon and it has already begun to impact company values and sales projections.
Pre-ordering from 2 different retailers seems a bit unfair on other people, making it much harder for others to get on the waiting list...
 

unfocused

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Of course they don't know the total demand, but I'm pretty sure that the initial preorders were larger than the first batch they are going to ship.
Okay, I guess I should have been more explicit. Since the announcement that "demand" was greater than expected came within days of the announcement of the lens itself and before they even know what preorders retailers are receiving, they could not possibly know what the demand really was and the more honest answer would be that "we announced this lens and set an availability date that we knew was bs when we made the announcement."
 

unfocused

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Pre-ordering from 2 different retailers seems a bit unfair on other people, making it much harder for others to get on the waiting list...
Not really. The waiting lists are open-ended. So if someone ahead of you cancels, it just moves you up one spot in the line. Presumably, people will be responsible enough to cancel an order from one retailer if they receive a shipping notice from another. This isn't quite the same as the jerks who order two or three copies of a lens, try them each out and keep the one they think is best and then return the others.
 
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Dragon

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The lens shortage may have more to do with the slow release of the R3 than the readiness of the camera. No sense in releasing a camera that customers can't buy lenses for.
 
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Not really. The waiting lists are open-ended. So if someone ahead of you cancels, it just moves you up one spot in the line. Presumably, people will be responsible enough to cancel an order from one retailer if they receive a shipping notice from another. This isn't quite the same as the jerks who order two or three copies of a lens, try them each out and keep the one they think is best and then return the others.
I agree. Once I get my lense I'll immediately cancel my second order. One RF 100-500mm is expensive enough, no need for a second one, especially with no second camera body right now. People will just get bumped up on the waiting list. And if worst comes to worst and there actually is an extra lense, that'll just mean that FINALLY one store will have a copy for touch and try! But I honestly believe, the mentioned lenses won't be available for "touch-n-try" events until Q4/ 2022 or Q1/2023
 

koenkooi

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I agree. Once I get my lense I'll immediately cancel my second order. One RF 100-500mm is expensive enough, no need for a second one, especially with no second camera body right now. People will just get bumped up on the waiting list. And if worst comes to worst and there actually is an extra lense, that'll just mean that FINALLY one store will have a copy for touch and try! But I honestly believe, the mentioned lenses won't be available for "touch-n-try" events until Q4/ 2022 or Q1/2023
For the RF100-500, I preordered it at a store that requires a €99 down payment and is know to get a decent batch on launch. That kept their list a lot shorter :)
 

john1970

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I guess I got lucky I pickup my
RF 400/2.8 today
Lucky is right. My local retailer received my RF 100 mm macro, but did not receive any shipments of the RF 400 mm f2.8 lens. Might I ask where you purchased? I am hopeful that I will have the RF 400 mm f2.8 by the end of Aug / early September.