Hmm, I have a feeling it will just be Canon and Sony duking it out for the remaining shares of the ILC market. I love Nikon, but I don’t see them surviving for a lot longer.
Could see a merger, in fact seems likely eventually. If I am not mistaken, Pentax, Panasonic, Olympus, Fuji all have smaller camera market shares and buy their sensors from Sony or elsewhere. Each of those companies make some incredible stuff. None of them are major rivals and so could deal with the culture of a merger I would think.
Canon is the only one of them that bought a foundry to make their own sensors as far as I know, which was a very smart move that produced DPAF and independence from Sony. Without actually innovating new sensors and new ways to use them (such as DPAF, pixel shift, etc) the other brands become users of others technology and not at the cutting edge eventually.