Canon thinks that the camera market decline has bottomed out, and targeted growth is coming

Canon Rumors Guy

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Canon has ammended their Q2 2022 financials with their thoughts about the future of the camera market. It’s one that we tend to agree with. The entry-level market formerly represented by the Powershot line and EOS Rebel line is essentially over for the obvious Smartphone reasons.
A few years ago Canon did say that they see the future of the business to be in producing products to target specific types of users. Now Canon thinks that they will see growth in the prosumer and professional spaces. A Sony executive’s recent silly claim that Smartphones would surpass ILCs in performance within three years aside, Canon will continue to listen to customers and produce targeted products to meet their ever changing needs.
Canon also says that they will continue to produce DSLRs as long as their is demand. I would not expect new DSLRs to be announced, but cameras like the Canon EOS-1D X Mark III will be a viable tool for years to come.
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mxwphoto

R6 and be there
Jun 20, 2013
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Increasing capacity 50% sounds like a very positive outlook to me
You do realize they are talking about lithography equipment here, not consumer cameras. Great for Canon on this business segment, but actually not as good for us as that means camera business will make up less of a percentage of their business and thus be less important to the company as a whole. Typically also means less funding and emphasis as well.
 
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HMC11

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Given that the anticipated recession would likely hit economies around the world later this year or early next year, it is unclear if the 'bottom' has indeed been reached.
 
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David - Sydney

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"Amid concern that semiconductor capital spending will slowdown"
This is a strange comment to prefix their lithography question. National security with associated committed government spend into local/regional fabs plus means that more fab equipment is going to be needed for the near future. At some point, there will be excess capacity - even within political geographies as demand slowly stabilises. Cheap/simple screen drivers circuits will be incorporated into new processor designs for instance or options to run on 7-10nm lithography will alleviate supply chain for cars, PCs etc.

There will be continuing need for finer lithography technologies though with phones etc driving demand.

Disruption to TMSC/Taiwan's infrastructure would be a massive global issue... or North Korea hitting South Korea/Japan.
 
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Hector1970

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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
 
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unfocused

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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
There is still a lot of room for improvement on autofocus, but generally I agree that we are heading for diminishing returns.
 
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SnowMiku

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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
I also agree that 30 to 50 to 100FPS and the other things you mentioned is a diminishing return. It will be up to the marketing department to make people believe they will need all of these extra features to get better shots/video.

Battery life would be something they can work on to improve in future models, another thing would be better reliability with no freezing issues. Perhaps they could also integrate with social media and have the ability to upload a picture instantly like you can on a phone, as long as they don't make these features subscription based. A global shutter would be an improvement they could work on as well for high end models.
 
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koenkooi

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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. [..]
There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:

The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.

Allow cameras to sync to each other over bluetooth, set the same date/time, share GPS, self timers, etc.

A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.

A modern version of A-DEP, where the camera sets the DoF to keep all detected faces in focus. Saying ‘stay parallel to the focus plane’ doesn’t work with toddlers :)

Store the IBIS/ILIS telemetry in the movie clips, like Blackmagic is doing for better stabilization in post.
Same for stills and photogrammetry.

Tilt/shift helper modes that suggest settings based on the image in the evf.

Software focus limits for stills and video. No more of the camera trying to focus on the riverbank behind a dragonfly in flight :)

Store the DPAF based depthmap in the image, like Apple does for their fake bokeh mode. Lightroom can already use that depthmap for masking.

Display optional DoF tickmarks on the focus distance bar in the EVF.

And a hardware one: A twin light flash with modeling lights suitable for video, for half the price of the MT26-ex, €1400 is too pricey for such a flash, in my opinion. I 3d printed small adapters to mount AL-M9s on the MT24 brackets as a stopgap measure:

F98747B8-0778-48F0-9351-49DF201B7266.jpeg
 
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SnowMiku

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Canon seems perfectly content to sell us lenses
I agree, and I think the current DSLR lineup will last for quite a few years before they need to update them, and if they update the M50 and 850D to have better 4k video capabilities then that will be both EF and EF-M good for maybe 5+ years or until demand goes down too much.
 
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Chig

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Jul 26, 2020
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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
Software and connectivity similar to that in smartphones but conservative Japanese companies such as Canon, Nikon and Sony aren't very good at this historically. However if one of them invests heavily in this area they would have a real advantage.
Also allowing third party apps and/or firmware similar to iOS / android smartphones or perhaps full integration/connectivity with smartphones ?
I find it very frustrating how slow and cumbersome it is to just post an image to social media.
On my smartphone I can do a quick edit and instantly post an image to social media but on my dslr I have to remove the card, load it onto my laptop, import into lightroom, edit it and wait for it to upload to LR mobile and then on my phone save the image to apple photos and then post to facebook. Although if I import it into apple photos I save several steps. How many people who have only used smartphones would put up with this nonsense ?
 
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john1970

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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
All very good points. Once the R1 is released I would be curious on what else they would improve upon in future models. Unless there is a fundamental advancement in sensor technology and CMOS sensors are replaced by a different type of sensor.
 

NKD

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If you can get the job done on older DSLR's and EF glass. No complaints. Books look good.
I know once I do switch it will be the best thing I could have done...Although I will be buying native glass again.. $$$
Once the mirrorless segment has decent battery life it will be the R1 or 5DSRs (no AA) replacment.
Happy to wait another year or 2 as I have waited long enough allready :ROFLMAO:
 
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InchMetric

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There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:

The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.

A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.

A modern version of A-DEP, where the camera sets the DoF to keep all detected faces in focus. Saying ‘stay parallel to the focus plane’ doesn’t work with toddlers :)
I was recently granted a patent with some related technology. It protects the concept of recognizing multiple subjects (faces, eyes) and sequentially rapidly imaging both (all) subjects each in focus, then compositing the image. It also discloses and reserves in a pending continuation application (last large paragraph) for later protection focus stacking improvements that relate to detected or selected subjects to establish near and far limits of the stack.
Practical and automated tilt-shift lenses would also help the out of plane toddler situation. (Identify desired subjects, tilt and shift to achieve best focus - though my invention works with any AF lens using updated firmware).
 

entoman

wildlife photography
May 8, 2015
1,189
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You'd wonder though how Canon will make cameras better. Focus and tracking is already good, it could still be better but after that there is not that many ways to improve. Sensors can be bigger but 100mp versus 50mp is a diminishing return. 30FPS to 50 or 100 FPS is also a diminishing return. There are limits how much better ISO performance can be. Computational photography will probably get more common but will it make a huge difference. For me the Canon 5D IV was the point where I could no longer blame the camera for issues. It's a great do - all camera. By the time Canon bring out the R1 it may be very difficult to improve upon it. The same for lens, they are so good I don't know how Canon can make them better. There will be less and less reasons to upgrade.
One of the main reasons why smartphones are replacing traditional cameras is convenience, i.e. they are extremely easy to carry, very light in weight, and simple to use. These IMO are the areas where traditional cameras and lenses still need a lot of improvement.

Optically a modern (Canon etc) lens on a MILc will yield stunning results, yet despite the talk touted by manufacturers about how short flange instances and wide throats would result in smaller and lighter lenses, instances of *significant* size and weight advantages are rare.

Canon has thankfully made a couple of steps in the right direction by offering 600mm F11 and 800mm F11 lenses as alternatives to the gigantic and hugely expensive L versions, and also has the lightweight 85mm macro. I'd like to see a lot more of these lightweight lenses.

Why e.g. produce F2.8 macro lenses, when hardly anyone shoots macro at full aperture? For most purposes (including stacking) people will be shooting macro at F5.6 or smaller apertures, so it would be good to see a stabilised 180mm F5.6 macro. Likewise it would be great to have a light and compact close-focusing 300mm F5.6.

With DSLRs, it was necessary to have wide apertures in order to get a bright viewfinder image. There will be some who want/need very wide apertures for very shallow d.o.f. but IMO there is a real need for smaller and lighter lenses, and many of us would happily sacrifice a couple of stops to get them.
 
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AlanF

Stay at home
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One of the main reasons why smartphones are replacing traditional cameras is convenience, i.e. they are extremely easy to carry, very light in weight, and simple to use. These IMO are the areas where traditional cameras and lenses still need a lot of improvement.

Optically a modern (Canon etc) lens on a MILc will yield stunning results, yet despite the talk touted by manufacturers about how short flange instances and wide throats would result in smaller and lighter lenses, instances of *significant* size and weight advantages are rare.

Canon has thankfully made a couple of steps in the right direction by offering 600mm F11 and 800mm F11 lenses as alternatives to the gigantic and hugely expensive L versions, and also has the lightweight 85mm macro. I'd like to see a lot more of these lightweight lenses.

Why e.g. produce F2.8 macro lenses, when hardly anyone shoots macro at full aperture? For most purposes (including stacking) people will be shooting macro at F5.6 or smaller apertures, so it would be good to see a stabilised 180mm F5.6 macro. Likewise it would be great to have a light and compact close-focusing 300mm F5.6.

With DSLRs, it was necessary to have wide apertures in order to get a bright viewfinder image. There will be some who want/need very wide apertures for very shallow d.o.f. but IMO there is a real need for smaller and lighter lenses, and many of us would happily sacrifice a couple of stops to get them.
I agree with a lot of what you write. However, if I need a close focussing 300mm of narrow aperture, I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime. I would like a 300mm f/4 DO like the tiny Nikon 300 PF as its wider aperture would give an extra stop of better diffraction on the R7. We have this dissonance that the low resolution bodies like the R6 match really well with the narrow lenses but the very high resolution sensors need wide lenses to take advantage of them.