Canon thinks that the camera market decline has bottomed out, and targeted growth is coming

Nemorino

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...I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime.
Yes it is really a fantastic lens - small, light, good mfd, USM and pleasing price.
IMO the most underrated RF lens.
 

entoman

wildlife photography
May 8, 2015
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I agree with a lot of what you write. However, if I need a close focussing 300mm of narrow aperture, I get out the RF 100-400mm, which focusses much closer than any telephoto prime. I would like a 300mm f/4 DO like the tiny Nikon 300 PF as its wider aperture would give an extra stop of better diffraction on the R7. We have this dissonance that the low resolution bodies like the R6 match really well with the narrow lenses but the very high resolution sensors need wide lenses to take advantage of them.
Somehow I knew you were going to talk up the RF100-400mm Alan :giggle:.
I'm sure it's an excellent lens.

I do have a "thing" about primes though (despite owning 24-105mm and 100-500mm zooms) as I find that when I limit myself to a fixed focal length on any particular day, it forces me to choose subjects more carefully, compose them better. Zooms make like easier, but can also make me lazy.

I agree that it would be great if Canon brought out a light and compact 300mm F4, but if I'm going to dream, I'd go for a nice sharp 300mm F5.6 that focused down to 1:3 or even better 1:2.
 

AlanF

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Somehow I knew you were going to talk up the RF100-400mm Alan :giggle:.
I'm sure it's an excellent lens.

I do have a "thing" about primes though (despite owning 24-105mm and 100-500mm zooms) as I find that when I limit myself to a fixed focal length on any particular day, it forces me to choose subjects more carefully, compose them better. Zooms make like easier, but can also make me lazy.

I agree that it would be great if Canon brought out a light and compact 300mm F4, but if I'm going to dream, I'd go for a nice sharp 300mm F5.6 that focused down to 1:3 or even better 1:2.
Canon has a rather good EF 70-300mm f/4-f/5.6, which they "upgraded" to the RF 100-400mm f/5.6-f/8. The chances of their bringing out a prime 300mm f/5.6 when they already have a good optical formula for a much more versatile and saleable lens are probably worse than you winning the National Lottery, so sweet dreams. They are more likely to bring out an RF 300mm f/2.8. Now, that would be something - a 300-420-600mm, f/2.8-4-5.6, with TCs. However, they never got around to making a Mk III EF version so maybe the sales are not there for it.
 
Apr 22, 2021
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I started with a Canon AV 1 and later bought a used AE 1.
When I started working I got myself a EOS 3 for 2700 DM / 1350 € and dreamt of the EOS 1. That was a lot of money in the 1990s.... and the EOS 3 ist still a very good camera.
The cheapest body price for the EOS 3D I can find is round 6000.- € or 12,000 DM in old money.

Sorry brother I am out. I could go for a EOS R5 or R6 sure but for a non-professional and as a hobby photographer I use my cameras not often enough for that kind of money.
Here the EOS 5 MKIII and the EOS R will have to do. And I do certainly not dream of a EOS R1.
 

dolina

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I hope Canon's right. Last thing we want is for worldwide shipping figures to drop to pre-2003 levels.

If that were to occur per unit cost would increase necessitating a MSRP that matches inflation or higher.

vZrfIyZ.png
 
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entoman

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There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:

A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.
Software focus limits for stills and video. No more of the camera trying to focus on the riverbank behind a dragonfly in flight :)

Store the DPAF based depthmap in the image, like Apple does for their fake bokeh mode. Lightroom can already use that depthmap for masking.
Now THAT would be really useful...

... and YES to the other suggestions too.
 

codym90

I'm New Here
Aug 15, 2022
11
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I feel like people are slowing starting to be more smart with their money. Maybe once the economy gets better but until then I see less people buying expensive cameras. I usually love to upgrade but even I decided to not upgrade anymore until I see a better economy.
-Cody McCracken
Johnson City Boudoir Photographer
 

dolina

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A reason why Canon sees an upside may be how often they get out of stock with RF products.

I doubt the industry as a whole will ever get to as many units as before.
 
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Sep 16, 2022
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There are a lot of ‘quality of life’ improvements possible, which are mostly software related. These are a few I’d like to see:

The builtin focus stacking uses AF for the starting point, it would be nice to have the option to set the start and end points manually and have the camera figure out the required amount of shots needed. Magic Lantern has a module for that, so we know it’s possible.

Allow cameras to sync to each other over bluetooth, set the same date/time, share GPS, self timers, etc.

A mode for DoF bracketing where the camera closes down the aperture after each shot and raises the ISO in a burst. For some macro shots I’m in such an awkward position that doing anything besides pressing the shutter is impossible.

A modern version of A-DEP, where the camera sets the DoF to keep all detected faces in focus. Saying ‘stay parallel to the focus plane’ doesn’t work with toddlers :)

Store the IBIS/ILIS telemetry in the movie clips, like Blackmagic is doing for better stabilization in post.
Same for stills and photogrammetry.

Tilt/shift helper modes that suggest settings based on the image in the evf.

Software focus limits for stills and video. No more of the camera trying to focus on the riverbank behind a dragonfly in flight :)

Store the DPAF based depthmap in the image, like Apple does for their fake bokeh mode. Lightroom can already use that depthmap for masking.

Display optional DoF tickmarks on the focus distance bar in the EVF.

And a hardware one: A twin light flash with modeling lights suitable for video, for half the price of the MT26-ex, €1400 is too pricey for such a flash, in my opinion. I 3d printed small adapters to mount AL-M9s on the MT24 brackets as a stopgap measure:

View attachment 204982
Great, Thankyou so much for such detailed information
 

LogicExtremist

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Sep 26, 2021
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With Canon becoming an 'old people's brand' and more young people buying Sony or not even bothering with cameras and resorting to smartphones, and the photography industry also contracting considerably in many areas (except wedding, real estate, etc), how long will the current trend last? Short term seasonal trends don't indicate the overall long-term direction, which if we were to draw a trend line to the graphs, would suggest a continued decline.
 

dolina

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With Canon becoming an 'old people's brand' and more young people buying Sony or not even bothering with cameras and resorting to smartphones, and the photography industry also contracting considerably in many areas (except wedding, real estate, etc), how long will the current trend last? Short term seasonal trends don't indicate the overall long-term direction, which if we were to draw a trend line to the graphs, would suggest a continued decline.

We are in a consolidation phase. We may end up having 2-3 players controlling 90+% of the digital still camera market. Ideally non-Mainland China-owned company.

e2zqAwS.jpg


Sony's business model for MILC is to sell sensors housed in a camera body. R&D resources is funded by ~1.4 billion smartphone image sensor annual shipments for which Sony supplies ~50% annually for the past decade+. This is a reason why they're ~6 years ahead of Canon in image sensor tech.

This is similar to how Apple was able to leapfrog Intel in the chips department. R&D resources is funded by ~0.25 billion $429-1599 iPhones shipped annually. Whatever unique attributes the Mac has is then funded by Mac sales. Without the iPhone Apple would still be bouncing from AMD or Intel.

As compared to Canon and until recently Nikon, Fuji, et al Sony does not sell as many quantities of 1st party lenses as those 3 other rivals. So it is more like a side project or icing on the cake for Sony. That may change when Sony ends the no Fee license or restricts 3rd party lens performance and make headway to improve 1st party lens performance.

Over 2 years ago Associated Press switched to Sony.



If another big photonews agency makes the switch then that's an indicator where we are headed.

If you keep track of the R&D spend they're all competing for enthusiast money when it comes to animal & bird photography as demonstrated by

- Canon
- Sony
- Nikon
- Panasonic
 
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neuroanatomist

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We are in a consolidation phase. We may end up having 2-3 players controlling 90+% of the market

e2zqAwS.jpg
Not really. A decade ago, the ILC market was dominated by just two companies – Canon and Nikon, and there were several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). Today, the ILC market is dominated by three companies – Canon, Sony and Nikon, and there are several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). There has been limited consolidation among the small players, but going from two major players to three is not market consolidation.

You should note that your graphic represents Japan only (or so I infer from the 'BCN' at the bottom).


Over 2 years ago Associated Press switched to Sony.
I would not read much into that. You've made a point previously that Sony initially opened up the E mount to gain a foothold in the market. It is reasonable to believe that Sony provided significant financial incentives to the AP to get a foothold in the professional journalism market.
 

dolina

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Not really. A decade ago, the ILC market was dominated by just two companies – Canon and Nikon, and there were several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). Today, the ILC market is dominated by three companies – Canon, Sony and Nikon, and there are several other companies with much smaller market share (<6% each). There has been limited consolidation among the small players, but going from two major players to three is not market consolidation.

You should note that your graphic represents Japan only (or so I infer from the 'BCN' at the bottom).



I would not read much into that. You've made a point previously that Sony initially opened up the E mount to gain a foothold in the market. It is reasonable to believe that Sony provided significant financial incentives to the AP to get a foothold in the professional journalism market.
Pls provide citations to claims. ;)
 

LogicExtremist

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Sep 26, 2021
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Anything can happen in the market over the long term, there are too many variables to account for. We've seen big companies that were "too big to fail" such as Kodak fade away, in the computing world brands such as IBM rose then fell, Wang and DEC vanished. Use the gear that you have now, practise and learn, enjoy it while you've got it and have the good health to use it! :)
 
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neuroanatomist

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Pls provide citations to claims. ;)
You make a good point. Looking back, in 2010 Sony had just over 11% of the ILC market (based on a Thom Hogan post citing an IDC report). A bit more in 2014:

Screen Shot 2022-09-18 at 2.44.35 PM.png

In 2021, Canon had ~48%, Sony ~22% and Nikon ~14%. There were three main players a decade ago (not two as I initially suggested), and there are three main players today (but #2 and #3 have switched places). My point remains correct – the market is not consolidating (obviously it's contracting, but that's not the same as a 'consolidation phase' for which you helpfully provided a link to define).
 

dolina

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You make a good point. Looking back, in 2010 Sony had just over 11% of the ILC market (based on a Thom Hogan post citing an IDC report). A bit more in 2014:

View attachment 205660

In 2021, Canon had ~48%, Sony ~22% and Nikon ~14%. There were three main players a decade ago (not two as I initially suggested), and there are three main players today (but #2 and #3 have switched places). My point remains correct – the market is not consolidating (obviously it's contracting, but that's not the same as a 'consolidation phase' for which you helpfully provided a link to define).
The consolidation I am pointing to are those occurring with smaller brands.
 

dolina

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Can you give some examples of those mergers/acquisitions among the smaller brands?

Can you give some examples of those mergers/acquisitions among the smaller brands?

Smaller brands to bigger brands mergers/aquisitions

Bonus: Samsung's exit of market may have been prevented if they did a Sony and bought out.... Pentax?

- Minolta https://www.lightstalking.com/minolta-sony-relationship/
- Ricoh https://www.digitalcameraworld.com/...-reborn-but-will-disappear-from-camera-stores
- Pentax https://www.adorama.com/alc/ricoh-buys-pentax/
- Samsung https://petapixel.com/2017/04/08/samsungs-camera-business-killed-smartphones-report/
- Olympus https://www.pcmag.com/opinions/what-the-olympus-imaging-sale-means-for-photographers
 

neuroanatomist

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  • Sony bought Konica-Minolta in 2006.
  • Ricoh bought Pentax in 2011.
  • Samsung discontinued their very small ILC effort in ~2016, which is neither a merger nor an acquisition.
  • Olympus divested their camera division in 2020, selling it to a private equity firm, merely an owner and name change for the brand.
Bonus: Ricoh bought Pentax the year after Samsung launched the first NX camera.

In short, your ‘examples’ span the last 16 years, which include the peak of the ILC market. You have only two examples which could be considered consolidation, one from 16 years ago and one from 11 years ago.

You might want to reread that Investopedia article you linked, perhaps you did not understand it completely.

So I’ll say again, my point remains correct – the market is not in a consolidation phase.