Canon will release an APS-C RF mount camera(s) later in 2022 [CR3]

Michael Clark

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The diffraction limited aperture of a 32 Mpx APS-C sensor is f/5.2. An f/7.1 is basically reducing it to the resolution of about a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor. I had a 90D, a great little camera with a 32 Mpx sensor, but it needed my 400mm f/4 to take advantage of it. On the 5DSR, which is about equivalent to a 20 Mpx APS-C sensor, the 400mm f/4 was hardly better than the 100-400mm II at f/5.6. But, on the 90D, it was much better. So, you would have to pay a lot for a lens and carry a lot more weight to make 32 Mpx APS-C more worthwhile in practice than a 20 Mpx sensor.

On the other hand, for the same angle of view as an uncropped FF camera that a 400mm f/4 gives you, you can get away with 250mm f/4, which isn't that far away from a lighter, more flexible, and much more affordable 70-200mm f/2.8 compared to a 400/4.

Now, put a 1.4X on the 200/2.8 and you have a 280/4, which is slightly more reach on an APS-C sensor than a 400/4 on an uncropped FF if both sensors have the same MP count. In my experience, you don't give away much in terms of IQ that would show up in the typical use cases (sports, birding) using one of Canon's latest EF 70-200/2.8 lenses with their latest EF 1.4X extenders. In fact, the extender tends to counteract the geometric distortion of the 70-200mm zooms when used at the longer focal length end, which is where one would typically use a zoom lens with an extender.

At 280mm and f/4, you're still below the DLA for a 32MP APS-C sensor.
 

Michael Clark

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Except that isn't true. Here are the production figures for DSLRs and MILCs for the past decade. The shift to MILCs is not 'accelerating'. MILC shipments have been flat basically since CIPA started tracking the segment. DSLRs are definitely in decline, but MILCs are not gaining as a result (thanks to Kayaker72 on TDP for the plot).

View attachment 201924

When MILC numbers remain flat and DSLR numbers continue to crash, MILCs are certainly accelerating in terms of market share.
 

Michael Clark

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One could potentially argue that what Canon really leads is the market segment looking for cameras in that price range. Here in the US, you walk in to Costco and see pallets of the rebel kits. Canon has the name recognition and the price point, and therefore gets the sales. Whether a DLSR is in that box or an RF mirrorless, I think, matters much less to the consumer. They may not even know the difference. They just want a 'real' camera. Not a point and shoot and not a phone. And they want it at that price point.

So if that is really what is happening, then Canon would be incentivized to consolidate production and engineering to one mount system.

I'm not saying its impossible Canon remains committed to the DSLR system. Predictions, as they say, are hard to make correctly - especially when they are about the future. But it would seem that if the pro/prosumer series has left the DSLR behind already, it will do the same to the entry level market at some point as well. If we see a new DSLR rebel it may mean Canon can't quite get the performance they want at that price point in mirrorless quite yet (cost of EVF? battery life?). But at some point they will.



-Brian

Yep. And as soon as Canon can make more profit selling a $400 APS-C MILC than a more or less equivalent $400 APS-C DSLR they'll stop making $400 APS-C DSLRs.
 

Michael Clark

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Diffraction limiting is not a hard stop, and there are other aspects which will not be limited. As long as you see aliasing/moire, the lens outresolves the sensor. Also, sensor resolution itself is cheap. If there was no other issue, you want all the pixels there is, and then you pay for your lens class to take care about resolution limits.

Anyways, Canon cripple hammer will hit, and it will hit hard.

I'm before camera purchase right now. Need at least 240FPS at 720p or better. I guess no Canon camera can do that.

Doesn't Canon have video cameras that can do that? They just don't have stills/hybrid cameras that can do that.
 

neuroanatomist

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When MILC numbers remain flat and DSLR numbers continue to crash, MILCs are certainly accelerating in terms of market share.
Obviously. But not in absolute terms. The MILC market is stagnant. That can't be a good thing for its future.
 

Michael Clark

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The RF 24-105/4L, and the EF 24-105/4L (I and II) before it, are kits lenses for FF bodies so of course they're popular. That actually supports my point – when you buy your first FF body, you need a FF kit lens to go with it. I suspect Canon's data show that the people who are 'upgraders' and buy >1-2 lenses also upgrade their body (likely more than once). That's actually an argument for having separate, incompatible mounts that 'force' those wanting to upgrade to buy new lenses to go with their new body and vice-versa.

That might be true if Canon is the sole seller in a closed system. But if other makers (e.g. Nikon and Sony) both offer APS-C and FF systems that use the same mount, that might be the determining factor for a lot of discriminating shoppers who aren't already committed to a particular system.
 

SteveC

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Obviously. But not in absolute terms. The MILC market is stagnant. That can't be a good thing for its future.
But it's even worse for the DSLR, which is not even up to stagnant if the premise is true. (You were responding to Michael Clark saying "When MILC numbers remain flat and DSLR numbers continue to crash, MILCs are certainly accelerating in terms of market share")
 
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Michael Clark

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Yes, just like Toyota is dropping the Corolla.

You can still buy a Corolla in the U.S? Seriously, I haven't seen one driving around in ages. I see Camrys at practically every intersection with a stoplight. How do the sales numbers compare?
 

Michael Clark

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So Canon makes more money if you buy the 400 f4 or even better the 400 2.8 . My point is I think a lot of people who want this for birding just want the reach/megapixels on the bird or fur. Canon will use this to make the most money.
If Canon could make an 80 Mpixel 20 fps ff camera that would work for them also but it would probably cost more. There are other tradeoff like you mention but I think this is what drives the" WE Want A R7 "comments. Its been my experience that logic and facts do not drive buying decisions as much as we think.
FYi I shoot with my R5 and the EF 100-400 and sometimes with the 1.4 adapter. Even with the 1.4 on I think the results are better than I got with my 7dmk2 with the same lens. The keeper rate is way higher.

Without seeing your comparative work using each, I'd guess that the biggest difference is in better AF performance and to a lesser degree better image stabilization with the combined IBIS + IS.
 

Michael Clark

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My point was that the statements you made about Canon’s entry into the FF MILC market are near-perfect echoes of common forum posts during the Canon’s entry into the APS-C MILC market. With no judgement on the validity of those statements at the time, the fact is that 5-6 years later Canon was leading that market segment.

They’ve only been in the FF MILC game for 3.5 years.



Indeed. In early 2018, Canon’s share of the FF MILC market was zero. It’s grown a lot since then…from where? Sony.

Not at all. Canon's share of the FF MILC market has grown mostly from the Canon FF DSLR user base. That should be blindingly obvious to anyone looking at the numbers you cite who doesn't have an alternate agenda to push.
 

Michael Clark

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I agree with this purchasing viewpoint and in actual use something I noticed while in Disney and CA adventure for three days last week....

Packed to the gills, both parks, in 3 days I saw ONE dslr and ONE milc camera. I surmised a thing or two as you could imagine.

Doesn't Disney limit the size of cameras that guests can take inside the parks? I know they have policies against a pro photographer buying a ticket to accompany a "customer's" family around and take photos of them enjoying the attractions.
 

neuroanatomist

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Not at all. Canon's share of the FF MILC market has grown mostly from the Canon FF DSLR user base. That should be blindingly obvious to anyone looking at the numbers you cite who doesn't have an alternate agenda to push.
When Sony was the only FF MILC game in town, most of their sales came from Canon and Nikon FF DSLR shooters. Now, those folks are staying in brand. In 2020, Canon gained 6% of the mirrorless market share and Sony lost 7% of it. If that trend continues even at half strength, by now Canon is the mirrorless market leader just as they have been the ILC market leader for two decades.
 

neuroanatomist

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You can still buy a Corolla in the U.S? Seriously, I haven't seen one driving around in ages. I see Camrys at practically every intersection with a stoplight. How do the sales numbers compare?
Knock yourself out.

I’ve seen a few today, including one that just drove past me (I’m parked).

There were 250K sold in the US last year, the Camry sold about 315K units (according to Car & Driver).

The fact that you haven’t seen any Corollas nicely illustrates what I keep saying about the worthlessness of anecdotal observations. Anecdotes ≠ data.
 
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neuroanatomist

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But it's even worse for the DSLR, which is not even up to stagnant if the premise is true. (You were responding to Michael Clark saying "When MILC numbers remain flat and DSLR numbers continue to crash, MILCs are certainly accelerating in terms of market share")
It is certainly worse for DSLRs. Basically, the ILC market picture is far from rosy.
 

neuroanatomist

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And smartphone continues to an increasingly wrong naming. The Chinese word cover s it so much better: 手机 (shouji = hand-machine).
A phone by any other name.

My oldest child is a teenager now, but in kindergarten (almost a decade ago, yikes!) she brought home a ‘label this object’ worksheet and was confused by one of the icons.

4AEA8156-BCC7-4B5E-BCF0-B55241E07C2F.jpeg

We explained that it was a telephone, and she adamantly told us we were wrong.
 
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Michael Clark

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Sad for you. There’s a Best Buy (nationwide big box electronics retailer, computers, dishwashers, etc.) 3 km from my house that has the R, R5, R6, 5DIV, M-series and Rebel/xxxD, and many Canon lenses including L-series in stock. They have display counters a few meters long for each of Csnon, Nikon and Sony (with a small area of Panasonic and Fuji).

There are >20 Best Buy stores in my state, I’ve been in 3-4 of them and all have a dedicated camera section. There is also a camera store chain around here (Hunts Photo), and a few independent camera shops as well (there were more of those a few years ago).

The only Canon body or kits that sell for more than $999 at the nearest Best Buy to me in stock is the EOS R + RF 24-105 non-L kit ("only 1 in stock"). The only lens for $999+ in stock is the EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS III ("only 2 in stock").

Today is Wednesday. If ordered today:

Earliest local pickup for an R body only, RP + 24-105/4-7.1 kit , R6 + 24-105/4-7.1 kit, EF 24-70/2.8L II, RF 24-70/2.8L, or M6 Mark II (black) + 15-45mm + EVF-DC2 is in three days on Saturday.

Earliest local pickup for R6 (BO), R (BO), EF 100-400L II, EF 16-35/2.8L III, EF 100/2.8L Macro, M6 II (silver) + 15-45mm + EVF-DC2, or RF 50/1.2L is in four days on Sunday.

Earliest local pickup for EF 70-200/4L II, EF 11-24/4L, RP (BO), RF 100-500/4.5-7.1L, RF 70-200/4L, R6 + RF 24-105/4L, RF 15-35/2.8L, EF 400/4 DO, EF 200-400/4(1.4X)L, or RF 85/1.2L is in six days on Tuesday.

Earliest local pickup for RF 70-200/2.8L is in nine days on Friday week.

Listed as unavailable for pickup (within anywhere from 50 to 250 miles, depending on the item) but available for direct shipping are:

EF 16-35/4L, EOS R + 24-105/4L, and EF 50/1.2L.

Listed as "unavailable nearby" or "sold out" with no option to order either in-store or via direct shipping:

EOS R5 (BO), RF 24-105/4L, RF 28-70/2L, EF 85/1.4L, EF 24-105/4L II, EF 24/1.4L II, TS-E 17/4, EF 500/4L II, EF 800/5.6L, EF 300/2.8L II, EF 600/4, EOS R3, and EF 400/2.8L III.


Two of the dozens of Nashville area stores 120 miles away have R6 bodies available for pickup today (one of those says "only 1 left"). Most of the other Nashville locations have earliest local pickup either in four days (Sunday) or in one week (next Wednesday). All of the other stuff is similar.

At or below $999, the following Canon cameras and lenses are in stock at the nearest Best Buy:

RF 50/1.8, EF-S 24/2.8 STM, EF 85/1.8 ('only 1 left'), RP (BO), EF-M 22/2,

Order for pickup later:

EF 50/1.8 STM, RF 35/1.8 Macro, M50 II + 15-45mm 'Content Creator Kit', RF 16/2.8 STM, EF 50/1.4, RF 24-105/4-7.1, EF-S 17-55/2.8, EF-S 10-18 STM, RF 24-240, EF-M 32/1.4, M200 + 15-45mm + 'CCK', EF 35/2, EF-S 10-22mm, M6 II (silver)(BO), RF 800/11, RF 85/2 Macro, M5 + 15-45mm, EF-M 15-45mm (silver),
RF 100-400/5.6-8, EF-M 28/3.5 Macro, RF 600/11, EF-S 15-85/3.5-5.6,

Direct Shipping only: nothing

Unavailable/Sold Out:

EF 40/2.8 STM, EF-M 18-150 (silver), EF 17-40/4 + 50/1.4 two lens kit, EF-M 55-200mm (silver), EF 50/1.8 STM + Speedlite EL-100 kit, EF-S35/2.8 Macro,
EF-S 18-135mm, M50 + 15-45mm + Røde Mic 'Video Creator' kit, M50 II (BO), M50 II + 15-45mm, M50 II + 15-45mm + 55-200mm, EF 70-300mm IS II, EF-M 18-150mm, M50 + 15-45mm (white), EF 17-40/4L, EF-S 55-250mm STM.
 

AlanF

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A phone by any other name.

My oldest child is a teenager now, but in kindergarten (almost a decade ago, yikes!) she brought home a ‘label this object’ worksheet and was confused by one of the icons.

View attachment 201933

We explained that it was a telephone, and she adamantly told us we were wrong.
They were already in antiques shops a decade ago.
 

Michael Clark

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>40% of the world is still DSLRs. Actually, it's more than that since 40% is the fraction of ILCs produced this year that were DSLRs. The installed base of DSLRs is still much higher, because it was only 2 years ago that MILCs overtook DSLRs in camera production.


Ahhh yes, "loads of nature photographers". How many is 'loads'? Do you know? I don't. But I can guarantee you that Canon has a much better sense of that than either of us. The 7-series was on a 5-year cycle anyway, the longest of any Canon series (even the 1-series are on a 4-year cycle, and the xxD and xxxD models were much shorter). If there were "loads of nature photographers" buying high-end APS-C cameras, why did the 7-series languish?
Not exactly. 40% of the ILCs shipped this year were DSLRs. It's well known that Canon stockpiles batches of product so that not many are in continuous production. I'd wager that a good portion of those were actually manufactured prior to the most recent statistical year, because the vast majority of them are models that have been around for more than a year or two.

Next, what does the "installed base" of DSLRs have to do with products Canon currently has in development or that have been recently introduced? We're talking about current and future sales units here, not how many been sold in past years. You're really reaching on this one.

What percentage of camera bodies introduced in 2020 or 2021 were DSLRs? Other than the 1D X Mark III, which is a low volume body, the only other is the 850D/Rebel T8i in early 2020. Since those two DSLRs came out, they've introduced the R3, R5, R6, and M50 Mark II. I highly doubt the 850D is selling as well as the M50 II, as most of Canon's DSLR sales are in even lower tier bodies: the older 200D/250D/Rebel SL 3, 2000D/Rebel T7, and 4000D/3000D/Rebel T100. The latter two have been on the market since early 2018.

The decisions about what products would be introduced in the 2020-21time frame were likely made by the end of 2018.

As for the 7-series five year cycle, it's fairly well accepted that the 7D Mark II was probably originally scheduled for a late 2012 or early 2013 release, three and one-half years after the 7D in late 2009, but development problems with the sensor delayed that until late 2014. When else has Canon released new firmware that increases the capability of a three year old body as significantly as they did with the 7D in 2012? That was a stop-gap measure meant to keep antsy 7D users happy during the delay.

It's also a distinct possibility that we'd have seen a 7D Mark III by late 2018 if Canon had not decided to throw more resources at bringing out the EOS R system in mid-2018. Perhaps the teams already working on the EOS R system were behind projected expectations and Canon reasoned they had more to lose by letting the introduction of the EOS R system be delayed than they had to lose by dropping plans for a 7D Mark III?

You love to chide others for "assuming" things without having access to Canon's mountains of sales and marketing data, yet you continue to insist that low sales numbers are the only possible explanation for the demise of the 7-series line when there are other equally plausible ones.
 
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