Now we see through a glass, darkly...
- Apr 5, 2016
When Sony was the only FF MILC game in town, most of their sales came from Canon and Nikon FF DSLR shooters. Now, those folks are staying in brand. In 2020, Canon gained 6% of the mirrorless market share and Sony lost 7% of it. If that trend continues even at half strength, by now Canon is the mirrorless market leader just as they have been the ILC market leader for two decades.
Yeah, but most of the buyers of Canon's FF MILCs are not coming back from Sony FF MILCs, they're coming from Canon FF DSLRs.
It's not that hard. It really isn't.
Sony's FF MILC numbers are falling because their α7 line has matured to the point that not all of the Sony faithful are updating every model release like they were a decade ago when each release was a more significant jump from the previous model. That and the Sony customer base tends, on average, to be younger than the customer bases for Canon's & Nikon's higher end cameras like the 5D series, R5, and R6. The pandemic has affected younger people's buying power more than it has affected those in the age 50+ crowd.