CIPA Global Camera Sales Numbers for March 2018 Released

Canon Rumors Guy

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<p><a href="http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html">CIPA has released</a> the camera shipment numbers for March 2018 today and there are some interesting things going on with ILC’s.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.canonnews.com/cipa-march-2018-a-new-hope-for-ilcs">Canon News</a> has done their usual great breakdown of the numbers, so I don’t really need to do the same thing.</p>
<p><strong>From Canon News:</strong></p>
<blockquote><p>….With the Kumamoto earthquake finally in the past, we see that the shipments overall for this month is almost that of the year past and maintain a little consistency from month to month at around 95% of last year’s March shipments. Japan for the first time ever has shipped more Mirrorless than DSLR’s which is an interesting notable that will have to be watched in the coming months ahead.</p>
<p>….DSLR’s continue to ship less, thereby raising the mirrorless market share.  This month instead of looking at percentages, we’re going to look at units, where it shows a far more startling trend for DSLR’s over the last 4 or so years than it does if you looked at percentages of market.</p>
<p>….In summary, for this month we are seeing a more consistent picture of shipments, marginal increases to mirrorless and the continued slow decline in DSLR shipments.  The interesting takeaway is that when you see a camera released, and you are puzzled to why on earth the company released it, imagine how it may fit into the different markets, whether it be for DSLR’s or for Mirrorless.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.canonnews.com/cipa-march-2018-a-new-hope-for-ilcs">Head on over to Canon News</a> for a lot more analysis and pretty graphs.</p>
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fullstop

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Apr 23, 2018
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Japan for the first time ever has shipped more Mirrorless than DSLR’s which is an interesting notable that will have to be watched in the coming months ahead.

"20-30 years"

ROFL
 

Mikehit

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Jul 28, 2015
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Looking at this data, I feel that the mirrorless disruption isn’t as much as how mirrorless will change the industry, but more how it will change how the industry looks at markets and creates products for them.

This may be the longer learning curve for both Canon and Nikon than simply creating products.

Canon in this regard, seems to have a higher understanding, with it’s product mix maybe missing the marks for mirrorless in the more enthusiast friendly realm of Europe and USA, however, perhaps not missing the mark as much in the newer, larger economic zone of Asia.

An interesting summary. Not-so-stupid Canon.
 

LDS

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fullstop said:
Japan for the first time ever has shipped more Mirrorless than DSLR’s which is an interesting notable that will have to be watched in the coming months ahead.
"20-30 years"
ROFL

The Japanese market is not always representative of other markets. There have been products very popular in Japan but not in US or Europe. And vice versa.

Big companies are aware of such differences, and have to plan accordingly.
 

fullstop

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Apr 23, 2018
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LDS said:
The Japanese market is not always representative of other markets. There have been products very popular in Japan but not in US or Europe. And vice versa.
Big companies are aware of such differences, and have to plan accordingly.

20-30 years for full transition to MILCs is still laughable. :)
 

stevelee

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Looking at the trend lines, it appears that mirrorless will overtake DSLRs -- in about 20-30 years. :)

I might be ready for one by then. That is if I'm still interested in photography when I'm over 91 years old.
 

unfocused

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stevelee said:
unfocused said:
Looking at the trend lines, it appears that mirrorless will overtake DSLRs -- in about 20-30 years. :)

I might be ready for one by then. That is if I'm still interested in photography when I'm over 91 years old.

Same here.

fullstop said:
20-30 years for full transition to MILCs is still laughable. :)

I don't know why it is so laughable that it might take that long for mirrorless to take over (if ever).

So far, the trend lines show DSLRs and mirrorless pretty much running in parallel with one another, with maybe a slight narrowing of the gap. I'm looking at years, not a single month. The chart can be interpreted as showing that mirrorless is on an eventual path to overtake DSLRs, but it also can be legitimately interpreted as showing that mirrorless demand has not matured, while DSLR demand reflects a mature market.

The problem is that technology geeks find the shiny new object appealing and assume that others do as well, when we simply don't know that yet. I'm pretty confident that DLSRs will outlive me, even if I eventually opt for a mirrorless as a backup or special purpose body.
 

fullstop

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DSLRs sales are going down, rapidly. For years now. Mirrorless has not taken off yet, due to lack of suitable supply - no Nikon, only limited Canon offering.

2019 will be the crossing year for sure. After that it will be accelerated downhill for DSLRs. 3 years and they are done, relegated to the same status that "former flagship" analog film SLRs held for a number of years.

Only reason why mirrorless has not already fully taken over 3 years ago was lack of supply, not lack of demand.
 

canonnews

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fullstop said:
DSLRs sales are going down, rapidly. For years now. Mirrorless has not taken off yet, due to lack of suitable supply - no Nikon, only limited Canon offering.

2019 will be the crossing year for sure. After that it will be accelerated downhill for DSLRs. 3 years and they are done, relegated to the same status that "former flagship" analog film SLRs held for a number of years.

Only reason why mirrorless has not already fully taken over 3 years ago was lack of supply, not lack of demand.

If mirrorless does ship more in 2019 (which is highly debatable, because for that to happen, Canon and Nikon would have to ship almost as many mirrorless full frame units than ALL their DSLR units combined which is highly unlikely to happen in 2019 or even really 2020). For your prediction to come true, both Canon and Nikon would have to "switch fully" to mirrorless cameras and dump their existing camera lines.

Canon will probably use the same strategy as they are now. They don't care what camera you buy as long as it's a Canon camera. they will happily sell you an EOS-M5 or happily sell you an 80D. It's very unlikely for them to stop some of the most popular camera lines over the last decade just because they came out with a mirrorless product.

As far as supply not hitting demand, I would love to see some details on that. The only supply issue in the last three years was the earthquake which disrupted 50% of the industry in Nikon and mirrorless companies both. however that effect is well over, you could argue that it's completely gone as of a year ago as all vendors have caught up on shipments around the first couple of months in 2017. it's debatable that mirrorless if canon or nikon seriously got into it three years ago would have had any more growth than we have already seen. Those in mirrorless have upgraded more often and quicker than those of DSLR's because of product maturity. as Mirrorless gets more mature, it will face the same slow decline, however it's much closer to the bottom than with DSLSR's.

Then on top of that you have the challenge in mirrorless of the market variations that you don't see with DSLR's, making any real prediction even more crazy :)

The major decline in DSLR's was actually written about, where we specifically mention some reasons for the decline in DLSR's not being the DSLR's themselves by really external influences that make comparing them a challenge.
 

Mikehit

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fullstop said:
DSLRs sales are going down, rapidly. For years now. Mirrorless has not taken off yet, due to lack of suitable supply - no Nikon, only limited Canon offering.

2019 will be the crossing year for sure. After that it will be accelerated downhill for DSLRs. 3 years and they are done, relegated to the same status that "former flagship" analog film SLRs held for a number of years.

Only reason why mirrorless has not already fully taken over 3 years ago was lack of supply, not lack of demand.

I don't believe that is the case.
Mirrorless is not taking over because the supposed benefits that the more vocal proponents claim do not matter to the mass market.
FF mirrorless smaller? Not really when you put a lens on it
FF mirrorless cheaper? Not looking like it - cost of a mirrorbox vs cost of a EVF
FF mirrorless more acurate focussing? Yes, but not so that it would make a difference to most people
FF mirrorless faster frame rate? Yes but most people wanting 20+ fps are probably more interested in video anyway
FF mirrorless AF tracking - inferior to DSLR.

All the internet ballyhoo is from people with very specific requirements, and most of that is the video crows.
If you want a high quality genuinely smaller mirrorless then go micro 4/3.

The reaoson mirrorless are lagging is not supply, but the need for supply is not there because demand is not that because people are happy with a small APS-C DSLR from a trusted and known manufacturer with a very long history of quality roducts.
if the mass market were clamouring for mirrorless then I am pretty sure Canon would be further than they are.
 

Talys

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fullstop said:
2019 will be the crossing year for sure. After that it will be accelerated downhill for DSLRs. 3 years and they are done, relegated to the same status that "former flagship" analog film SLRs held for a number of years.

Only reason why mirrorless has not already fully taken over 3 years ago was lack of supply, not lack of demand.

This is crazy talk.

You're forgetting that, by a wide margin, most of Canon's sales of ILC's are NOT full frame. They're APSC, and Canon has a fine range of mirrorless products. Yet Canon's APSC DSLRs are still where tons and tons of Canon's sales are. Do you think that if Nikon had an enthusiast APSC (a la M5), people would stop buying Nikon APSC DSLRs?

It's not like if tomorrow there were a Canon A7iii, all of the sudden, people who were going to buy 77D, 80D, Rebels, M100, M50, M6, M5, M100, are going to say, OMG, awesome $2,000 FF mirrorless -- now I'm going to spend three times more on my body and five times more on my lenses!!!

There is one reason why Mirrorless takes up a growing percentage of sales. They're new and people don't own one, or the one that they have has been eclipsed by a new, better one. Once they mature -- which won't be that long from now, if you look at where A7R3 and M50 are -- pepole will stop buying new mirrorless cameras, because the one they something they're pretty happy with.

Does that sound familiar? That's exactly where we're at with DSLRs. People out in the wild aren't suddenly hating their DSLRs and not using them. It's just that there isn't a really compelling reason to go buy the next one, unless there's some very specific feature that you're after.

So eventually, we'll all have choices, and maybe as enthusiasts, a lot of us will own both DSLRs and mirrorless cameras, which might each excel at different things. And then the camera sales will continue to collapse as non-enthusiast, every-day picture-taking gets increasing handled with smartphones.
 

Woody

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Japan for the first time ever has shipped more Mirrorless than DSLR’s which is an interesting notable that will have to be watched in the coming months ahead.

Diltiazem said:

For Mar 2018, BCN data shows 10 MILC models and 10 DSLRs in the top 20 positions. While this is significant, I have noticed similar spikes in MILC popularity. So far, they have been sporadic and not necessarily indicative of a persistent trend.

Another interesting data is the position of the Canon 6D MarkII. While Nikon FF DSLRs tend to attract a lot of buyers in the few months of their release, their popularity almost always plunges after ~ half to one year. Canon FF DSLR models, on the other hand, tend to remain on bestselling charts for a much longer period of time...
 

Woody

EOS R
Jul 20, 2010
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Talys said:
So eventually, we'll all have choices, and maybe as enthusiasts, a lot of us will own both DSLRs and mirrorless cameras, which might each excel at different things. And then the camera sales will continue to collapse as non-enthusiast, every-day picture-taking gets increasing handled with smartphones.

I currently own a DSLR (77D) and a MILC (M5). And I have no plans to use my awful smartphone camera for important photos. ;D
 

CanonFanBoy

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Jan 28, 2015
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fullstop said:
DSLRs sales are going down, rapidly. For years now. Mirrorless has not taken off yet, due to lack of suitable supply - no Nikon, only limited Canon offering.

2019 will be the crossing year for sure. After that it will be accelerated downhill for DSLRs. 3 years and they are done, relegated to the same status that "former flagship" analog film SLRs held for a number of years.

Only reason why mirrorless has not already fully taken over 3 years ago was lack of supply, not lack of demand.

Not true.

Oh brother!

Economics and market watching: Not your strong points.

Supply: Canon, Sony, Panasonic, Pentax, Olympus, Fuji, etc. Those are mirrorless camera makers, most of which are struggling... because of huge demand? BTW: Canon? Not struggling at all.
 

fullstop

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Apr 23, 2018
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@Canonfanboy
short answer: boy oh boy, fan boy!

long answer:
I really wonder, who is not able to understand the market. Even if you don't believe any of Thom Hogan's projections for 2018 onwards, the CIPA numbers until and including 2017 are undisputable facts. DSLR shipments (sales) are and have been going down rapidly for a good number of years now.
bythom_ilc_trendline_med.jpeg

http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/2018-mirrorless-camera/jan-mar-2018-mirrorless/when-does-mirrorless-suppla.html

MILC system supply:
was and is lacking in several major regards. By brand:
* Canon - EOS M: APS-C only. Really decent camera bodies only since late 2016, 2017 - M5/M6. Still lacking usable 4k video. Even on latest EOS M50 4k is still not satisfactory. "No 4k" is a major problem in market place, especially when targetting younger customers - "first entry into proprietary brand world". Reason why Canon is selling EOS M fairly well: size and price. Bodies and lenses are very compact for APS-C and generally very affordable.

* Sony: wrong mount parameters resulted in lenses too long, too big, too complex and way too expensive. Plus first 2 generations of A7 cameras ridden by user interface issues and other "teething problems". APS-C lineup - E-mount held back by high prices for bodies (eg Sony A6500 vs. Canon EOS M5) and lack of "decent and affordable" lenses.

* Fuji: "nice" but too expensive. "crop gear at FF prices" sums it up. Bodies and lenses. Plus retro-styling and retro UI. Minority program. Will not likely get more than single digit market share ever.

* Olympus, Panasonic and mFT gear: "ridden" with dwarf sensor. Diffraction sets in at f/4, low-light performance not all that much better than best smartphone cameras. Somewhat attractive only to video-centric buyers (Panasonic GH series). Olympus? "Quarter sensor at FF prices". 2 grand for an mFT sensored "enthusiast" camera? lol. Market share: low single digit, if at all.

* Ricoh/Pentax - no MILC offering since their ill-fated K-01 with "native K-mount nozzle" (pig's snout). Exactly what some Canon fan boys are asking Canon for. Market share prediction: zero.

Conclusion: until supply meets pent-up (!) demand and decent, compact MILC systems for APS-C and FF imaging circle are available from all 3 dominant players (Ca, Ni, So), camera and lens market will continue to shrink. Some n00bs are still buying "rebel" DSLRS. Smart buyers refrain from buying new, marginally improved DSLRs - now that the end is near. They use what they got for now, sit back and wait for "really right" decent MILC systems. Overall, customers are not stupid. Companies sometimes are. :)
 

neuroanatomist

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fullstop said:
I really wonder, who is not able to understand the market. Even if you don't believe any of Thom Hogan's projections for 2018 onwards, the CIPA numbers until and including 2017 are undisputable facts.

Ahh, yes...indisputable facts. There are facts about MILC shipments in 2012 that are also indisputable, but you and Thom Hogan are ignoring them (ignoring salient facts is what you do when you form a conclusion, then subsequently need to find data to support that conclusion). The fact is that 2012 MILC shipments were higher than 2016, meaning the trendline for MILCs when you consider all the available data is actually flat.


fullstop said:
MILC system supply:
was and is lacking in several major regards. By brand:
...
Conclusion: until supply meets pent-up (!) demand

Supply. You keep using that word, I do not think it means, what you think it means. You're saying 'if only manufacturrrs made better/cheaper/[insert personal value/desire here] them more people would buy them'. That's not 'supply', that's an assumption on your part that there are no data available to support.

But big ASSumptions are your modus operandi, AvTvM.
 

Mikehit

EOS R6
Jul 28, 2015
3,340
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Thing about that graph is that it excludes 2012 - why? Because including 2012 show a basically flat progression and does not suit the selective data-picking that mirrorless fans like.

What evidence do you have that lack of 4K, even among the 'younger customers' is a genuine problem for Canon? My guess it is all internet chatter from a very vocal minority.

Sony - wrong mount parameters. How much smaller will a lens be if they 'got it right'? Pro-grade f2.8 lenses are the size they are because of physics. And what price do you think the A6500 should be? Do you have any knowledge of how much it costs to make them?

Olympus/Panasonic - so 'ridden' with problems of a small sensor that mahy pros are using them and even sold their FF gear to do so. market share low singloe digit? They outsell Sony mirrorless.....Your comments here alone make your whole statement one of prejudice and drivel.