I watched this presentation from the beginning to the end and can make very few very strong statements:
1) Presentation was absolute bullshit;
2) Presenter was making wrong assumptions and wrong conclusions.
My reasoning for such conclusions is the following:
1) At first you do not need to prove obvious things (e.g. there is a snow in winter, water is liquid and etc.). Presenter wanted to prove that photo market is declining. This is obvious fact, which does not require to be proved.
2) Presenter put a lot of not necessary bullshit in presentation (on Bruce Willis, impala population, correlation trends and correlation formula). The problem with statistics is that if you apply wrong assumptions and make correct statistical calculations you will get wrong results, which contradict to common logic. Accordingly, presenter conclusion that smartphone introduction is NOT killing compact camera market is wrong.
3) All discussions about market saturation (when we speak about compact cameras) is wrong is due to CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY. Cameras in smartphones are sufficiently good to fully replace compact cameras. The same could be applied to PDAs and MP3 players. Talks about market saturation in compact cameras would make sense if there is no such shift in technology.
4) Accordingly, presenter was wrong regarding market saturation related to DSLRs. Peak was in 2012 when Canon / Nikon introduced 5DMark III, D800 series cameras. AT that year technology was at peak, which drove consumers to buy DSLRs, however, the last few years were really in "milking the cow" stage. There were no new major technology breaktroughs, which would drive consumers to buy new cameras. Another fact is that such highly advanced cameras are really expensive. e.g. You are not buying a new car every year, yo replace it when it becomes really obsolete (physically and morally). Accordingly, it is normal to consumers to replace such cameras every 2-5 years.
Presenter was also wrong in arguments, which were trying to show why photo camera sales are declining:
1) Different aspect ratios in photo cameras and printers. This is not a limiting factor as most of consumers do not print photos but store them in digital format. Other part of consumers do not face issues as they send jpegs to photo labs and get prints. Process is extremely simple.
2) Photo books argument - maybe presenter had in mind CAMERA MANUALS?
Because all photo books explain principles of photography and usually are not written to specific camera or manufacturer. Principles of photography are the same for all cameras.
3) RAW and Adobe. This argument is absolute bullshit as there are more RAW converters and consumer do not need to stick to Adobe only. Also, ordinary consumers can shoot in JPEG mode and they do not need any editing software.
Presenter said incorrect statement: meeting consumers wishes is not equal to technology we offer. Ordinary consumers are not buying compact cameras as smartphones are really sufficient. Compact camera market is dead. That is a fact. However, more advanced consumers want really better technology (e.g. better dynamic range, better high ISO capabilities, faster FPS, etc.). During the last few years there were no such breakthroughs. I am sure that if Canon put Exxmor sensor in Canon Mark 5dMkIV such camera sales would be really significant.
Some words on SOLUTIONS that presenter presented:
1) More fun but not technology - in other words he could say "better marketing is required", however in such specialized industry as photography you need to have at least basic knowledge about light, ISO Av TV dependence and etc. If you want very simple approach you can make photos with smartphones or in AUTO regime in DSLRs.
2) He proposes to abolish scene modes in cameras. This is wrong as ordinary users (who do not have knowledge on photography) use them. In such case you would loos quite a big part of ordinary hobbyists who buy expensive DSLRs.
3) Simplifying photo eco system, abolish patents, open secrets
Whout would be Canon advantage if it openly announce protocols related to AF, Sony abolishes Exxmor sensor patents, all manufacturers use unified lens mount???? In such case all photo maufacturers should consolidate and that will never happen. Stupid idea which is impossible to implement.
4) Harmonising and unifying hardqare and software. Stupid argument as well. Hardware harmonisation would be killing lens and camera sales. Software is already harmonised - Adobe Photoshop and Lightroom are industry standards.
It was funny to watch how presenter gave ideas how to improve photo workflow from taking picture to printing it. This process is ALREADY IMPLEMENTED.
In summary, presentation included a lot of bullshit, wrong assumptions and conclusions, as well as outdated ideas. Other trends which drive young generation (e.g. making selfies) were not discussed at all. That's because presenter still lives in XX century and do not have any new ideas. I am very surprised that he was invited to CES.
That video puts in perspective all that bickering over DR or high ISO performance and the importance of the "SYSTEM". Canon made serious mistake when decided to listen to wedding photographers as the primary source of sales, alienating hobbyists and enthusiasts with pricing and architecture of futures available in particular price levels. If Canon's marketing department has the same attitude as the most prominent posters here that you all know who i am referring tom (same people that destroyed karma, the only form of protest or critique without being retaliated verbally for) than Canon is not even close to find solution to the crises, not with the big mugs with 50Mp printed on them anyway. I really hope somebody will learn the lessons here...
