DSLR & Mirrorless Camera Sales for April 2015

[Canon Rumors Guy]

CIPA has published their sales figures for digital cameras for the month of April 2015. While there is an obvious spike over March 2015, the numbers are still down slightly compared to 2014. The decline year-over-year is far less than the 2013 to 2014 decline in ILC camera sales.</p>
<p>Here’s hoping we’ve seen the end of large declines in DSLR camera sales.</p>

 

[old-pr-pix]

Originally sent in a different thread... here is a graph of the CIPA data from the website personal-view.com...

Shipments typically peak twice a year - pre-Christmas holiday season and pre-graduation/summer/Father's Day (US). This is in anticipation of significant sales pushes for those times.

The good news is that shipments to the Americas are up significantly, but Japan is down slightly. Overall trend is still moderating unfortunately.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

The numbers vary by Geography, so its not simple, and appears to be influenced by the economic situation in the various areas.

In the Americas, DSLR Sales $ in Yen are up 121% over 2014, and Mirrorless up 125.7% and Asia, DSLR sales are up 109.6% while Mirrorless sales dropped to 94% over 2014. In Europe and Japan, both countries which have devalued currency, sales are down sharply. In the Other Areas (India, Australia, Africa??), Both DSLR and Mirrorless sales are up.

The absolutely dismal sales in Japan and Europe are dragging the total down, or we would be seeing a sharp increase.

I'd say that its a matter of prices and economics rather than smart phone influence on purchases..

 

[Tugela]

What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%

 

[neuroanatomist]

What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%

The graph shows that the overall ILC market is decreasing, and the numbers indicate that mirrorless shipments are also declining 2012-2014, albeit more slowly than dSLRs.

 

[Tugela]

The graph shows that the gap between the two types is decreasing. Do not get confused about overall numbers, it is the relative gap between the two that matters. Obviously there will be some variation in the short term as new models are released, but it is the trends that are important.

In general, once a consumer moves over to mirrorless, they probably will not go back to DSLRs, so the trend will be irreversible. Eventually, time will erode DSLRs into a niche.

 

[neuroanatomist]

The graph shows that the gap between the two types is decreasing. Do not get confused about overall numbers, it is the relative gap between the two that matters. Obviously there will be some variation in the short term as new models are released, but it is the trends that are important.

Lol. :

The last time you discussed this, what mattered most was that dSLRs were trending downward, and mirrorless was trending upwards (and I was 'fooled by the overall market'). Now that you've learned that the upward trend for mirrorless was merely a figment of your imagination (so, who was fooled?), what matters most is the narrowing gap.

As you say, the trends are important – and the trend from 2012 to 2014 is that mirrorless sales are falling.

There's a gap between sales of blank VHS cassettes and blank Betamax cassettes. Now...don't get confused by the overall numbers. It's irrelevant that almost no one is buying blank videocassettes any more. What matters is that Betamax is narrowing the gap. : :

 

[kelpdiver]

What that graph shows, if you plot out mirrorless as a percentage of DSLR sales, is that the mirrorless share of the market is steadily increasing. Mirrorless had a relatively high percentage at the end of 2012. In 2013 it was averaging around 20%, and in 2014 that increased to around 30%

everyone sees the pattern they want to see, I guess.

What I see on that graph is a virtually flat sales curve for mirrorless. SLRs are slowly declining, but are still at 3x-4x. To assert that the mirrorless will grow into a declining market is wishful thinking. 3-4M units a year for the entire category is not a success model.

Mind you, I added such a camera (GH4) to my stable, and have yet to decide if I'll replace my 7d or 5d3 with the next generation model. That's behind the SLR decline - not enough reason to upgrade. But buying that GH4 hasn't changed anything - I got that for underwater use, and it hasn't erased my preference for optical viewfinders and faster focusing.

I'll put out a (completely unfounded) theory that you see a constant line of 300k in sales because DSLR users are interested in having at least one compact camera that isn't junk.

 

[dak723]

Just because someone produces a graph that shows both DSLRs and Mirrorless sales on it, that doesn't mean that the two type of cameras are competing with one another. They aren't. Both types of cameras are interchangeable lens cameras - and therefore can be used for the same purposes to get the same shots. But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!

 

[distant.star]

But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!

If it weren't for meaningless debates, what would we talk about?

 

[jthomson]

In general, once a consumer moves over to mirrorless, they probably will not go back to DSLRs, so the trend will be irreversible. Eventually, time will erode DSLRs into a niche.

Funny I've bought 3 DSLR's (Canon SL1, 5D3 and 7D2) since I bought my mirrorless Panasonic G-3. I much prefer an optical viewfinder. Mirrorless might remain a niche it's great for backpacking due to the low weight. and 2x crop factor.

 

[unfocused]

everyone sees the pattern they want to see, I guess.

What I see on that graph is a virtually flat sales curve for mirrorless. SLRs are slowly declining, but are still at 3x-4x. To assert that the mirrorless will grow into a declining market is wishful thinking. 3-4M units a year for the entire category is not a success model...
I'll put out a (completely unfounded) theory that you see a constant line of 300k in sales because DSLR users are interested in having at least one compact camera that isn't junk.

You might be right.

What I see, is a mature market and a niche market. I see DSLR sales declining in part because the market has become saturated and the technology has matured to the point where new models don't offer that much of an advancement over previous models for most users -- The T3i was until recently Amazon's top selling DSLR despite it's age.

MILCs are newer to the market, so it's not surprising to see some recent growth. But it looks to me like sales have pretty much plateaued. Absent any significant breakthrough, I don't expect that to change in the near term.

Honestly, I don't even know why anyone cares. If mirrorless technology gets to the point where it surpasses DSLRs in performance and usability, Canon and Nikon will offer mirrorless bodies that function with their existing lenses. I still give the odds of a transition to mirrorless at about 50/50, but if it does occur, I expect it to be gradual and most users won't notice or care, because the functionality and possibly the form-factor won't change that much.

But go ahead and keep up the meaningless debates!

If it weren't for meaningless debates, what would we talk about?

Virtually all of the debates on this forum are meaningless. This one is just slightly more meaningless than others (although probably more meaningful than dynamic range discussions) But, that's what makes it all so fun!

 

[Orangutan]

Virtually all of the debates on this forum are meaningless. This one is just slightly more meaningless than others (although probably more meaningful than dynamic range discussions) But, that's what makes it all so fun!

That's completely wrong! The big camera manufacturers have multiple, full-time marketing staff dedicated to reading and dissecting CR posts in minute detail. They use this trove of scientific data, along with chicken bones, to determine upcoming products and pricing. 8)

 

[bmwzimmer]

I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii

 

[Orangutan]

I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii

How often do you think Canon should refresh their FF pro(-sumer) models?

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii

Yes, sales tend to blip upwards when a new model is released. Some think that the 5DS was significant.


I'm not sure why you think there are no new FF offerings.

 

[Dylan777]

I feel the biggest dslr company in the world has not released anything great since the 1DX, 5D3, and 6D back in 2012. They are so reliable that there has been no new FF offerings in so long. I bet the graph will bounce up if Canon released a great 5D4, 1DXii and 6Dii

Many waited for 5D III to drop below $2.5k. Many waited for 1Dx to drop below $5k. I doubt it has to do with new models. Just look at Nikon...

 

[Hillsilly]

For all the mums and dads who purchased a 450D (AKA XSi) in the DSLR heydays, I can't think of much that would really drive them towards buying a new DSLR. I use a 10 year old DSLR myself and have no real interest in a new Canon body. Most blogs I read say that the 2008 Nikon D700 is the best overall camera for Nikon shooters to use. I just don't know who buys new cameras these days. I'm surprised that they sell as many cameras as they do.

 

[JohanCruyff]

For all the mums and dads who purchased a 450D (AKA XSi) in the DSLR heydays, I can't think of much that would really drive them towards buying a new DSLR. I use a 10 year old DSLR myself and have no real interest in a new Canon body. Most blogs I read say that the 2008 Nikon D700 is the best overall camera for Nikon shooters to use. I just don't know who buys new cameras these days. I'm surprised that they sell as many cameras as they do.

Getting better technique is almost always a better idea than getting better gear.
But if you wait a reasonable number of years, technology and features leaps from ancient models to new ones can be shocking (the 3K$ 5D classic didn't feature ISO Auto, sensor cleaning, live view etc., and now you can find that features and much more in basic 300$ models).

 

[gsealy]

One good thing is that more people are taking more photographs than ever. Of course this has to do with social media sites and the emergence of the mobile phone camera. So I believe that the overall picture taking market is increasing. At some point the DSLR decline will level off. Many of these 'new' photographers, who now have a taste for it, will want to want to create better pictures and learn more about the art and craft of it. They will then take the next step and buy better equipment. DSLR camera sales will start to inch upward.