How much will the 5d3 cost at the end of 2012?

How much $$$ will the 5d3 cost at the end of 2012 (w/o special deals, grey imports, rebates etc...)?


  • Total voters
    84
  • Poll closed .

Marsu42

Canon Pride.
Feb 7, 2012
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der-tierfotograf.de
With many people thinking about getting a 5d3 now, wait for a lower price or get a 5d2 instead if the high price of the new model persists, I thought I'd do a quick survey.

Opinions on how likely price drops are seem to be very split, so here's your chance to voice your opinion and revisit the thread at the end of 2012 for a good laugh (like "how much better will the 650d sensor be?")...

Please don't write "But I've seen it as low as xyz sold on ebay by a hk dealer", this poll is about the tendency, so specify standard u.s. shop retail prices.
 

preppyak

EOS R
Oct 18, 2011
1,023
76
unfocused said:
I said $3,500, as I think that will remain the list price. But, I do expect Canon to offer a rebate of $150-$200 for the holidays. Maybe double the rebate if you buy a lens. So, street price could be a little lower.
Yeah, I have the same feeling, which is why I put $3300. It will still have the technical retail price of $3499, but, you'll see it on Amazon/B+H/etc at $3300ish during the holiday sales.

Definitely don't see it doing a major drop to anything like $3000
 

neuroanatomist

I post too Much on Here!!
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Jul 21, 2010
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It really depends on sales volume, more than anything. For example, I infer that initial sales of the new 600EX-RT were not as strong as expected, and that's why it was added to the current rebate program (unusual for a newly-released product).
 

Marsu42

Canon Pride.
Feb 7, 2012
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Berlin
der-tierfotograf.de
neuroanatomist said:
For example, I infer that initial sales of the new 600EX-RT were not as strong as expected, and that's why it was added to the current rebate program (unusual for a newly-released product).

Unfortunately the 600rt wasn't added to the european cash-back program, even though all other flashes have a rebate :-( ... maybe eu customers are more keen on bleeding edge tech? Anyway, I would think that the 600rt sales are good because the used 580ex2 price has dropped so much, and imho this means people are upgrading.
 

unfocused

EOS-1D X Mark III
Jul 20, 2010
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Marsu42 said:
neuroanatomist said:
For example, I infer that initial sales of the new 600EX-RT were not as strong as expected, and that's why it was added to the current rebate program (unusual for a newly-released product).

Unfortunately the 600rt wasn't added to the european cash-back program, even though all other flashes have a rebate :-( ... maybe eu customers are more keen on bleeding edge tech? Anyway, I would think that the 600rt sales are good because the used 580ex2 price has dropped so much, and imho this means people are upgrading.

Honestly, I don't consider a $30 rebate a sign of anything.
 

thepancakeman

If at first you don't succeed, don't try skydiving
Aug 18, 2011
476
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unfocused said:
Marsu42 said:
neuroanatomist said:
For example, I infer that initial sales of the new 600EX-RT were not as strong as expected, and that's why it was added to the current rebate program (unusual for a newly-released product).

Unfortunately the 600rt wasn't added to the european cash-back program, even though all other flashes have a rebate :-( ... maybe eu customers are more keen on bleeding edge tech? Anyway, I would think that the 600rt sales are good because the used 580ex2 price has dropped so much, and imho this means people are upgrading.

Honestly, I don't consider a $30 rebate a sign of anything.

I think you underestimate the "sale" effect on consumer mentality. People buy stuff just because it's perceived as a good deal, regardless of whether or not it is. Just check out eBay--people often buy stuff for more than MSRP just because it's on eBay they think it must be a good deal. I have buddies at work that go to the same restaurant for lunch every Monday because they get double stamps on their frequent diner card, even though they end up spending more even with thier freebie than they would at other restaurants.

Canon knows this, so I absolutely would take it as a sign that they are not moving as many as they would like.
 

Marsu42

Canon Pride.
Feb 7, 2012
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unfocused said:
Honestly, I don't consider a $30 rebate a sign of anything.

Ugh, I thought the rebate was higher considering the price - you're correct, might not mean much, only that now all flashes have a minor incentive to buy them now (the 580ex2 wasn't in the first list because it was phased out).
 

traveller

EOS R
Jul 22, 2010
895
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neuroanatomist said:
It really depends on sales volume, more than anything. For example, I infer that initial sales of the new 600EX-RT were not as strong as expected, and that's why it was added to the current rebate program (unusual for a newly-released product).

Very true, but it might also depend on what Nikon's offer is with regard to the (very strongly) rumoured D600. The trouble for Canon with a camera like the D600 would be creating a rival that could match its price point, whilst looking like a better camera than the 5D MkII and not as good as the 5D MkIII. Canon might be forced to do some asymmetric competition by lowering the price of the 5D MkIII to perhaps half way between the D600 and D800; this would be analogous to the situation that used to exist between Canon's pre-60D XXD line and the Nikon D70-90/D100-300.
 

Northstar

EOS 5D Mark IV
Mar 31, 2012
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I think $3000 for the holidays of 2012. The d800 has been sold out and/or back ordered for over 3 months now while the 5d3 has always been available to buy with little to no wait, and THAT speaks volumes about the higher demand for the d800 vs the 5d3. This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.
 

thepancakeman

If at first you don't succeed, don't try skydiving
Aug 18, 2011
476
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Northstar said:
I think $3000 for the holidays of 2012. The d800 has been sold out and/or back ordered for over 3 months now while the 5d3 has always been available to buy with little to no wait, and THAT speaks volumes about the higher demand for the d800 vs the 5d3. This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.

"This supply demand curve"--I see your point on demand, but missed where you mentioned what the supply was... ???
 

Northstar

EOS 5D Mark IV
Mar 31, 2012
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thepancakeman said:
Northstar said:
I think $3000 for the holidays of 2012. The d800 has been sold out and/or back ordered for over 3 months now while the 5d3 has always been available to buy with little to no wait, and THAT speaks volumes about the higher demand for the d800 vs the 5d3. This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.

"This supply demand curve"--I see your point on demand, but missed where you mentioned what the supply was... ???

You're correct pancake...I'm just guessing that they have similar manufacturing capabilities...just a guess and a prediction.
 

awinphoto

EOS 5D Mark IV
Aug 26, 2010
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Northstar said:
thepancakeman said:
Northstar said:
I think $3000 for the holidays of 2012. The d800 has been sold out and/or back ordered for over 3 months now while the 5d3 has always been available to buy with little to no wait, and THAT speaks volumes about the higher demand for the d800 vs the 5d3. This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.

"This supply demand curve"--I see your point on demand, but missed where you mentioned what the supply was... ???

You're correct pancake...I'm just guessing that they have similar manufacturing capabilities...just a guess and a prediction.

With nikons battery issues, AF issues, etc... Also canon had 2 dedicated factories just pumping out this camera... Nikon... dont know... wasn't ever published. Also read somewhere that places like amazon UK got sick of nikons delays and problems they cancelled all pre-orders... So it's really hard to tell.
 
D

DB

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Jun 10, 2011
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Northstar said:
I think $3000 for the holidays of 2012. The d800 has been sold out and/or back ordered for over 3 months now while the 5d3 has always been available to buy with little to no wait, and THAT speaks volumes about the higher demand for the d800 vs the 5d3. This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.

Nikon's supply always sucked compared to Canon. Even without a hot new product they struggled with supply on their upper tier models.
 

Wilmark

EOS 90D
Apr 3, 2012
161
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www.wilmark.johnatty.com
The only thing about waiting is that I feel that Canon is hard at work to bridge the gap with Nikon (Read DR etc). All the current models will get quicker updates than normal, including the 1Dx which i suspect is still using old sensor tech. Canon cannot afford the hemorrhage of photographers who will switch to Nikon and and all those new ones who are buying Nikon for the first time and not Canon. Canons Sensor tech is their Achilles heel and they have to fix and implement this fast. However in the mean time the 5d3, 1Dx and rebel will sell as fast as they could make them, although it may not last into next year. I wouldnt touch anything Canon with an APSC sensor though, for pro work. Although the 60D with ML looks good for video at current discounts.
 

unfocused

EOS-1D X Mark III
Jul 20, 2010
5,859
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Springfield, IL
www.mgordoncommunications.com
This supply demand curve will force canon to lower the price to $3k...IMO.

Canon cannot afford the hemorrhage of photographers who will switch to Nikon and and all those new ones who are buying Nikon for the first time and not Canon.

What are you people smoking?

I just checked the Amazon best sellers list. As of 9 p.m. tonight the D800 was #8 and the 5DIII was #9. Those are incredible sales figures for both cameras. Especially, when you consider that they are bookended (at #7 and #10) by cameras that are under $600.

Both of these cameras are well on their way to becoming massive success stories for their respective companies. If you are going to make up sh*t, at least make it believable.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

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Mar 25, 2011
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unfocused said:
I just checked the Amazon best sellers list. As of 9 p.m. tonight the D800 was #8 and the 5DIII was #9. Those are incredible sales figures for both cameras. Especially, when you consider that they are bookended (at #7 and #10) by cameras that are under $600.

The Canon 5d MK III comes as a body only, and as a kit with lens, and a lot of both of these are sold. The D800 is only offered as a body only.

Add the additional sales of the 5D MK III kit to those of the body only, and they are likely much higher on the list.
 

traveller

EOS R
Jul 22, 2010
895
58
Wilmark said:
The only thing about waiting is that I feel that Canon is hard at work to bridge the gap with Nikon (Read DR etc). All the current models will get quicker updates than normal, including the 1Dx which i suspect is still using old sensor tech. Canon cannot afford the hemorrhage of photographers who will switch to Nikon and and all those new ones who are buying Nikon for the first time and not Canon. Canons Sensor tech is their Achilles heel and they have to fix and implement this fast. However in the mean time the 5d3, 1Dx and rebel will sell as fast as they could make them, although it may not last into next year. I wouldnt touch anything Canon with an APSC sensor though, for pro work. Although the 60D with ML looks good for video at current discounts.

If Canon were that concerned to "bridge the gap" between Nikon/Sony sensor technology and their own, they would have done so in this current generation (I can't speak for the 1D X yet). The dynamic range issue (i.e. the low read noise of the latest Sony Exmor sensors) has been apparent since the 16MP APS-C sensor, which was first offered in the D7000 (and Sony A580) back in Autumn (Fall) 2010 (the D800 has what is basically a full-frame version of this sensor). Are you seriously suggesting that it has taken Canon over a year to notice that this sensor has lower read noise than their own?
 
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