Photo vendors in five years?

Jul 12, 2011
382
30
As I look out and try to figure out what's going on in the photo market, I'd predict several things coming down
the road. Canon has everything to lose, as the current market leader covering nearly all the bases, any shift
in market share has to effect them the most. They do have a significant advantage however, vertical integration.
In that sense I would predict the leading brands in five years will be Canon, Fuji, Panasonic (probably buying
sickly Olympus) Samsung. Nikon and Leica are too dependent on chip vendors, Sony couldn't market most of
their stuff no matter how good. Pentax/Ricoh has a chance, if they can get their combined act togather.
The point and shoot market will be decreasing in market share due to better smart phone camera integration,
and that will hurt Canon and Nikon most at the benefit of Apple and Samsung. Video capabilities will improve
to the point that dedicated video cameras are redundant - and that will hurt Canon, Panasonic and Sony.
Better ISO performance may decrease the need for fast, and expensive, lenses and optical manufacturing techniques will improve so that high quality lenses can be made in volume - hurting Leica, Nikon and Canon.
Prices will continue to escalate and digital imaging software will continue to improve around the margins to
provide excellent images but without the "feel" of darkroom processing. All told, an exciting time to be interested in photography.
 

Mt Spokane Photography

I post too Much on Here!!
CR Pro
Mar 25, 2011
16,652
1,603
dickgrafixstop said:
As I look out and try to figure out what's going on in the photo market, I'd predict several things coming down
the road. Canon has everything to lose, as the current market leader covering nearly all the bases, any shift
in market share has to effect them the most. They do have a significant advantage however, vertical integration.
In that sense I would predict the leading brands in five years will be Canon, Fuji, Panasonic (probably buying
sickly Olympus) Samsung. Nikon and Leica are too dependent on chip vendors, Sony couldn't market most of
their stuff no matter how good. Pentax/Ricoh has a chance, if they can get their combined act togather.
The point and shoot market will be decreasing in market share due to better smart phone camera integration,
and that will hurt Canon and Nikon most at the benefit of Apple and Samsung. Video capabilities will improve
to the point that dedicated video cameras are redundant - and that will hurt Canon, Panasonic and Sony.
Better ISO performance may decrease the need for fast, and expensive, lenses and optical manufacturing techniques will improve so that high quality lenses can be made in volume - hurting Leica, Nikon and Canon.
Prices will continue to escalate and digital imaging software will continue to improve around the margins to
provide excellent images but without the "feel" of darkroom processing. All told, an exciting time to be interested in photography.

I'm curious, why do you think Nikon is too dependent on chip vendors? Are you talking sensors, or the microprosser type chips, or the chips in the lenses? Nikon designs many of its own sensors, and makes equipment to produce them. Canon buys sensors from Sony and makes their own CMOS sensors as well. Nikon is reasonably well situated as only they, Canon, and Sony design their own FF cmos sensors.
The industry is hugely interrelated, with everyone selling components and even building cameras for / to others. Open up a Canon or any DSLR and note the Sony LCD inside. Dig deeper, and you will find components from many manufacturers. Even P&S lenses are commodity items made by the hundreds of millions.
If anything, I'd see China as a emerging manufacturer. Manufacturer of high grade lenses requires a lot of delicate and skillful labor, and China is rapidly evolving into high end capabilities.
 

Ewinter

EOS RP
Aug 21, 2012
223
0
I don't really think the ISO will hurt fast lens manufacture. There's no way the sensor's ISO performance is going to interfere with physics so that it breaks the way Depth of field works ;D
 

Hillsilly

EOS R
Oct 16, 2010
1,100
2
I can't imagine any big changes. My trifecta is Canon, Sony then Nikon. Nikon will still sell a lot of dslrs, but just won't be able to keep up with Sony's overall camera sales.