The next body... (my speculations)

[Dave]

I thought a lot about the next release of canon (since I really need a new cam).

Sony has just released a rellay sexy cam. And rumours say that Nikon will do the same the next couple of weeks. So I think that canon has no choice to response on that challenge. Otherwise they would loose the xmas trade (do you say that in english?) to Nikon and Sony.

Imo there are not so many options.

1200D:
It's not possible to release a a 1200 without competing the 600D because they are to close together

650D:
Same Problem concerning the 60D. They are to close...

70D:
The 60D has just come up last year

1Dxx...
I don't think that the next SLR from Canon will be a 1D. This is a pure pro body. The sales won't be driven by the christmas trade. I guess a new 1D will be released a couple of months before the next bigger sport event in 2012 (maybe Olympia).

So imho the most likely candidates are:
7D Mk II
5D MK III

The 7D would be probable because it's more consumer-like cam and better for christmas trade
But the 7D is not THAT old and the 5D III is past due...

So the matter remains interesting...

 

[elusive1]

For a while, I was hopeful for some new bodies, but as time goes on I seriously am starting to think that Canon has no plans to release anything until they absolutely have milked every penny from their current, dated bodies. So that means it could be a while since unlike Nikon or Sony, Canon can live off their name to a much greater extent.

So IMO, new bodies not coming for a good long time.

 

[Loswr]

The 'christmas trade' for dSLRs almost entirely comprises entry-level bodies, currently the 600D/T3i and 1100D/T3, with perhaps a small contribution from xxD bodies (60D). In general, items >$1,000 don't factor into that retail segment, with the exception of jewelry. You're right that all of the above are too recent to be replaced. So, the upcoming holliday sales are unlikely to affect plans for Canon's dSLR lines (we've already seen new PowerShots announced, though, and we'll see more of those soon - that's for the holiday season). Given that, other criteria will drive dSLR releases, and I suspect that means that if we see any more announcements at all in 2011, we'll see a 1DsIV announced.

 

[Ziggy]

Not an expert, but hope a new pro-DSLR comes out, only for it's a pain to find a new MARK IV right now...

 

[mjbehnke]

I sadly agree. Christmas camera sales are generally P&S cameras. I think the T3 and the T3i are nice intro\novice cameras that were just announced are going to be it for the DSLR side for awhile. Canon does need to announce a 5D MkIII soon!

Of course, this is MHO

 

[J. McCabe]

70D:
The 60D has just come up last year

AFAIK, the xxD series is on an 18 month cycle, with the 60D released mid 2010, so a 70D body for Christmas sounds reasonable to me. I'd say with the 60D already having the 7D's sensor, what room is there for a 70D before the 7Dmk2 is released ?

 

[Tarrum]

The 650D will most likely be announced next year indeed, but of course it's going to be close to the 600D - I'm guessing a new sensor.

7D next on the list? Doubt it, the xxD line takes more than 2 years and the 7D is higher - so perhaps a few more months.

The only things not updated are the 1Ds and 5D. I can only imagine these two coming in the next few months, with the 1Ds being first.

 

[the-ninth]

I always was the kind of guy to recommend people to buy what they need now instead of waiting for any mysterious new versions ... but now that I want to upgrade to the 5D series I cannot bring myself to go for the 5DII but anxiously wait for the 5DIII.

About what to expect next: I read the rumor that next year there will be a new Canon sensor with a significant increase in dynamic range. I cannot picture Canon releasing a 1D with current sensor technology this year and next year a 5D with a much better sensor

So if the rumor about the new sensor technology is true, I'd expect the 5DIII this year and the 1D next year. Or both come next year with the same sensor technology. But then Canon needs to differentiate and the 5DIII might keep an inferior AF. Which would make very unhappy since the AF is the main reason I do not want the Mark II ...

Regards, Robert

 

[MK5GTI]

i 2nd the 650d announcement.

probably the same as 600D but with similar LCD "transforming" ability to the Sony A77.

possibly 20 mp and worst noise performance, priced exactly like the 60D.

 

[moreorless]

The 650D will most likely be announced next year indeed, but of course it's going to be close to the 600D - I'm guessing a new sensor.

7D next on the list? Doubt it, the xxD line takes more than 2 years and the 7D is higher - so perhaps a few more months.

The only things not updated are the 1Ds and 5D. I can only imagine these two coming in the next few months, with the 1Ds being first.

The 50D lasted 2 years because it was introduced quickly to cover the disapointment around the 40D, besides those two models te xxD line has generally been on an 18 month cycle.

The main thing standing in the way of a 70D or a 650D though is I'd say that a new sensor would out spec the 7D. Just as you'd expect the 1Ds Mk 4 to preview the new FF sensor I'd also expect the 7D mk2 to preview the new crop sensor. Canon could I spose try and get away with using the old 7D sensor again in a 650D using the new processor for better FPS but they'd risk being otuspeced pretty quickly and have to release something else a few months latter.

Personally though I wouldnt be shocked if the 7D mk2 came out before the 5D mk3, a new sensor is needed for the xxxD and xxD's and the 7D itself is facing stiffer competision from Nikon so why not take advanatge of previewing it on your flagship crop body?

 

[Dave]

7D next on the list? Doubt it, the xxD line takes more than 2 years and the 7D is higher - so perhaps a few more months.

As I said: They have to start at the top... They need a new 7D to have more headroom for a 70D... And they need a 70D to release a 650D. The different lines are too close to each other. Another theory of mine is that there will be no 70D in general (or no 7D MkII): Canon could merge the two lines (again).

 

[Haydn1971]

I dont see why the 7D has to have a superior sensor ? The 7D is a "pro" product with specialist AF, similar size to the 5DII and even shares the same batteries... It's outside of the xxxD/xxD product cycle, so they could reasonably slip up tp 20-22mpx, leaving the 7D to leapfrog next year to 25-30mpx, leaving headway for a 700D/80D to mak a step to something in-between, thus allowing 2-3 steps between each new 7Dx model.

 

[sb]

I'm not sure why people think 7D and 5DMk2 are "outdated". Is it just because they were released in 2008/2009? They are both insanely good cameras, and will continue to be insanely good even after next generation is released. I'm not planning to replace them until they stop taking pictures.

 

[moreorless]

I dont see why the 7D has to have a superior sensor ? The 7D is a "pro" product with specialist AF, similar size to the 5DII and even shares the same batteries... It's outside of the xxxD/xxD product cycle, so they could reasonably slip up tp 20-22mpx, leaving the 7D to leapfrog next year to 25-30mpx, leaving headway for a 700D/80D to mak a step to something in-between, thus allowing 2-3 steps between each new 7Dx model.

It doesnt "have to" but if the sensor is outspected by the 650D and/or 70D then its likely many people will buy those models instead.

One thing to consider with the 5D mk2 is the price its now at, a FF high megapixel body for £1500 new is potentially tapping into a different market than the pro bodies generally do and might do even moreso if it can go lower. Even if Canon isnt making much money on the body its potentially growing the FF lens buying market for the future in a way that a more expensive 5D mk3 might not.

 

[Haydn1971]

It doesnt "have to" but if the sensor is outspected by the 650D and/or 70D then its likely many people will buy those models instead.

Nonsense, people don't buy the 7D just for the sensor, by that logic why would anyone pay £1200 for the 18mpx 7D when they can get the 550D with the same 18mpx sensor for just over £500 !

It's like telling me to trade my 450D in for a Sony NEX5 because it's got a better sensor ! The 7D isn't a consumer camera, unlike the entry level models, it doesn't compete in the shop window on pixels per pound, number of fancy picture modes and meaningless word count on the camera body.

Someone in the market for a 7D isn't gonna cut a corner and say, damn, I'll take that fancy 22mpx Canon 650D and save the extra £600 ! They want a 7D for a specific job, that's better AF, faster frame rates, bigger picture buffer, built in flash transmitter, shared batteries with their 5DII, similar handling to their 5DII or any combination of he aforementioned.

I'll show my backside in Harrods window if a 7D appears this side of Xmas 2011, in fact, I'd be surprised to see a 7D before the 650D or 70D... Common sense is heading towards a 1D(s) announced in Autumn ready for Winter, a 5D & 650D in spring 2012 (Olympic big sell on the 650D), I'd suggest a 70D by autumn 2012, with a new 7D sometime in the winter 2012/13

 

[Redreflex]

[...]
I'll show my backside in Harrods window if a 7D appears this side of Xmas 2011
[...]

I'll hold you to that!

 

[Dave]

I'm not sure why people think 7D and 5DMk2 are "outdated". Is it just because they were released in 2008/2009? They are both insanely good cameras, and will continue to be insanely good even after next generation is released. I'm not planning to replace them until they stop taking pictures.

In my case the problem is, that my 350D IS going to stop takting pictures very soon I guess... And I'm waiting for the 7D2 or the 5D3 since I definitley want to have flip screen.

I'll show my backside in Harrods window if a 7D appears this side of Xmas 2011, in fact, I'd be surprised to see a 7D before the 650D or 70D...

How could Canon improve the 600D without competing the 60D??? And how can they improve the 60D without competing the 7D...

 

[Osiris30]

It doesnt "have to" but if the sensor is outspected by the 650D and/or 70D then its likely many people will buy those models instead.

Nonsense, people don't buy the 7D just for the sensor, by that logic why would anyone pay £1200 for the 18mpx 7D when they can get the 550D with the same 18mpx sensor for just over £500 !

It's like telling me to trade my 450D in for a Sony NEX5 because it's got a better sensor ! The 7D isn't a consumer camera, unlike the entry level models, it doesn't compete in the shop window on pixels per pound, number of fancy picture modes and meaningless word count on the camera body.

I know *a lot* of people that haven't bought the 7D because the 60D was close enough and "the sensor is the same anyway". I also know an awful lot of people who didn't go xxD because the xxxDs are pretty damned good now (especially the T3i) feature wise.

If you're not a sports shooter there is relatively little that the 60D leaves on the table vs. the 7D. The same is true for the 600D vs the 60D. Don't get me wrong, each camera up the ladder *does* have benefits, but the question is how much of the population would notice said benefits in a *meaningful* way... it's getting pretty marginal these days.

 

[Loswr]

How could Canon improve the 600D without competing the 60D??? And how can they improve the 60D without competing the 7D...

Remember earlier this year, when the T2i/550D already had the same sensor as the 7D and 60D, and lots of people wondered how the next entry level body could be released without cutting into 60D territory? Yet we got a 600D/T3i anyway, right on schedule.

As we saw, there don't have to be big changes in that line. The idea isn't really to induce current 600D owners to upgrade, it's mainly to keep the consumer line 'fresh'. For example, the xxxD line has used the same AF sensor for a long time. Canon could go from 1 to 5 cross-type points (still 9 total), allowing them to maintain separation from the 60D while touting a 'substantially improved AF system' for the T4i/650D. The 70D (because the 60D still uses the 40D's AF) would get, say 13 points, and the 7DII would stay the same (oh, sorry...Canon will say 'improved AF algorithms supported by the new Digic V). That's just one possible roadmap, off the top of my head.

I know *a lot* of people that haven't bought the 7D because the 60D was close enough and "the sensor is the same anyway". I also know an awful lot of people who didn't go xxD because the xxxDs are pretty damned good now (especially the T3i) feature wise.

How many is that? The thing is, Canon 'knows' *ALL* the people who have bought their cameras, and sales of the 7D and 60D remain very strong...so unless your 'a lot' numbers in the thousands (or tens of thousands?), they don't seem to be affecting Canon's bottom line.

 

[the-ninth]

I'm not sure why people think 7D and 5DMk2 are "outdated". Is it just because they were released in 2008/2009? They are both insanely good cameras, and will continue to be insanely good even after next generation is released. I'm not planning to replace them until they stop taking pictures.

I currently have a 30D and there are two main things I am not happy with: the focal lenghts of Canon prime lenses in general and also of those that I own "fit" better to a FF camera, and the AF performance in low light is bad.

Currently there is no Canon camera available that solves this within my budget (1Ds is out of question for me). So I am waiting for the 5DIII to see if it combines the FF with a decent AF. I am not asking for a 7 or 1 series AF, a 50D AF with 9 cross-type sensors would probably already satisfy me.

Cheers, Robert