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A Nikon representative confirmed that their new mirrorless system will be coming by spring of 2019 (video here). We’ll assume this new mirrorless system is going to be full frame, and perhaps an APS-C little brother as well.
So what about Canon?
We know there are various bodies in testing and at various stages of development, though we’re pretty confident that a hard date for an announcement has not been determined as of yet. It’s speculated around the web that both Nikon and Canon will make some kind of announcement for a full frame mirrorless camera at Photokina in September.
If Nikon is saying their new system will be coming some time in early 2019, I don’t think they’ll be doing an official product announcement at Photokina, and it’s more likely we’ll get some kind of a “development” announcement. I think there’s a high probability Canon does a similar thing at Photokina. I will say however, we’e never been told about a “development announcement” before they happen. People don’t like announcements and then having to wait 6 months to buy the product, we’ve seen that in the past with Canon and it’s not good for anyone.
I don’t think it matters to Canon or Nikon who is first out of the gate with a full frame mirrorless camera. Both companies obviously have a very loyal customer base and both will be going right at Sony. If both companies make comparable products to Sony feature-set wise, they’ll both easily take a large chunk full frame mirrorless marketshare rather quickly. The one caveat to that will be how F and EF mount lenses fit into the picture.
Lots more to come…