canon rumors FORUM

Rumors => Third Party Manufacturers => Topic started by: Lichtgestalt on November 07, 2013, 11:57:10 AM

Title: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 07, 2013, 11:57:10 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/nikon-earnings-idUSL3N0IR39F20131107?type=companyNews (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/nikon-earnings-idUSL3N0IR39F20131107?type=companyNews)

Quote
Nov 7 (Reuters) - Nikon Corp cut its full-year unit sales forecast for high-end cameras for the second quarter in a row on Thursday, as a dramatic fall in demand among photography hobbyists that began last year accelerated faster than expected.
 
The company posted a 41 percent drop in operating profit to 21.9 billion yen ($222 million) for the six months ended September, saying overseas demand for pricy single-lens reflex models had remained depressed.

It cut its unit sales projection for interchangeable lens cameras to 6.20 million from a previous forecast of 6.55 million, which had predicted the first fall in sales of the format since Nikon's first digital SLR in 1999.

A sharp downturn in the single-lens reflex camera market this year has come as a blow to companies such as Nikon and market leader Canon Inc, after the shrivelling of the compact camera market as consumers switched to smartphones for taking photos. Nikon's imaging unit's operating profit slid 26 percent in the first half to 30.9 billion yen.

Nikon also cut its sales forecast for steppers, multi-million dollar lithography machines that are a vital part of the semiconductor manufacturing process, to 36 from an earlier forecast of 37 machines, saying it had felt the impact of a drop in capex among chipmakers. Operating profit in its precision instruments unit fell 48.2 percent to 3.7 billion yen.

The Japanese firm now claims less than a fifth of the market, down from less than 40 percent a decade ago, as Dutch rival ASML Holdings NV has gained a share of over 80 percent.

financial results:

http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2014/14_2qf_c_e.pdf (http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2014/14_2qf_c_e.pdf)

when you look at the numbers and reports from nikon it seems nikon was also very busy cutting production cost this year to keep the operating income relatively(!) close to the forecast. 
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Albi86 on November 07, 2013, 12:08:01 PM
The news being...?

Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 07, 2013, 12:10:29 PM
The news being...?

Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.

the news is... that the report was released today.  ::)

if it was about canon.. all the DRones, MPicklers would be all over it again.  ;D
they knew it before, canon has to do something or customers will all switch to nikon, blahblah...


Quote
Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.

camera manufacturer.

leica too?
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: neuroanatomist on November 07, 2013, 12:26:17 PM
By the numbers:


So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: preppyak on November 07, 2013, 12:30:04 PM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...
Which is interesting, considering that, by the specs, they released the two more interesting DSLRs of the last year (D800 with big MP, and D600 for cheap). Seems like innovating on the camera body side of things isnt enough to get people to buy.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 07, 2013, 12:34:25 PM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop of y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops of y/y unit dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...
Which is interesting, considering that, by the specs, they released the two more interesting DSLRs of the last year (D800 with big MP, and D600 for cheap). Seems like innovating on the camera body side of things isnt enough to get people to buy.

or people are clever enough to realize that for 13x18cm prints or flickr/facebook uploads a 36 MP camera is just overkill.
it only slows down your editing process and you need lot of harddisk space.

let´s be honest, most people do 10x15cm or 13x18cm prints 98% of the time.
even with a lot of cropping you don´t need 36 MP for that.

the "oil of nikon" D600 has kind of a bad reputation.




Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: jcns on November 07, 2013, 02:55:48 PM
i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time. 
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 07, 2013, 03:12:40 PM
i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time. 
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.

i have a friend who bought a 600D because he liked my pictures.
 
now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp". :)

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.  ;)

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".
his problem is, when he does portraits the head only occupies 1/6 of the frame and then he crops like mad. told him a few times to get closer... he makes the same errors again and again.

some people really don´t need a DSLR.
he likes my macro and portrait shots but even after 16 month he still takes pictures in P mode.
and he wonders that with the "expensive" DSLR his images doesn´t look much better then with his 190 euro P&S. for him light is light..... you only need enough. :)

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.

Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Sporgon on November 07, 2013, 03:37:34 PM
The simple fact is there are many, many people who like the idea of seeing through their camera's lens.

Canon know this; this is why they introduced the great little 100D/SL1 and were late to the mirrorless party.

I'll make a prediction: in the near future Canon will fit a pentaprism into their Rebel bodies to provide a brighter view without the 'cold' image given by the pentamirror.

The sales figures must be alarming for Nikon when they compare with Canon.

Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: skullyspice on November 07, 2013, 04:11:48 PM
not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: waving_odd on November 07, 2013, 04:48:28 PM
...saying overseas demand for pricy single-lens reflex models had remained depressed...

So which one is the following is true?

Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Kernuak on November 07, 2013, 04:54:27 PM

now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp". :)

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.  ;)

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.
Yet many people like this do buy DSLRs and think they can take the same photos that professionals can.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: YuengLinger on November 07, 2013, 05:06:36 PM
I belong to a BIG UNIVERSITY photo club.  Just recently, the old topic of copyright protection came up.  When I mentioned "print," the whole room went silent and people looked puzzled.

Also:  Just last week attended a workshop on natural light wedding photography.  The teacher, a successful (about $90k per year) wedding photographer in her early 30's never sells albums.

The point of these two anecdotes:  Nikon's big 36MP sensor, and all the magic of the current generation of great lenses by Canon, Nikon, Sigma, and Tamron, is completely lost not only on the smartphone generation, but also on their parents and grandparents who see little screens as the only way of sharing images these days.

We are facing a world where books are for eccentrics, craft is for a tiny percentage of elite Hollywood and museum gallery erudites, and expensive dSLR's are for maniacs.

That said, I can tell you EVERY time I shoot an event or just happen to have my 5D3 with me, strangers comment on the quality of the camera, know the model, express envy...But they have learned that having a dSLR does not automatically produce the magical images they think they are entitled to, even if they have no clue about composition, lighting, etc, etc...


Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: unfocused on November 07, 2013, 05:12:48 PM
not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

Hah! I know you're being sarcastic, but I do find something very interesting.

I just checked the Amazon Best Sellers and the Df is nowhere to be found. Now, I know that it is only available for pre-sale, but I also recall that in the past, Amazon included cameras that were yet to be released, so long as they were taking orders for them (5DIII and 6D for example)

Maybe Amazon has changed their policies or maybe the Df is a bust. I don't know.

BTW I continue to be stunned that the 5DIII remains in the top 10 sellers (#7 today) given that it is more than $2,000 more expensive than most of the other best sellers.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 08, 2013, 06:28:46 PM
not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

sarcasm? :)


Quote
But the bad news doesn’t stop there, it continues to roll with rumors of lackluster Df pre-sales published by Nikon Rumors. NR claims that unofficial info from several retailers has Df demand “not even close” to what D800 demand was when it came out.
 
To substantiate that claim, NR points out that the Df isn’t even in the top 20 best-selling DSLRs on Amazon, while the D610 (not exactly the most popular release Nikon has ever had, given all of the pissed off D600 users) is up at number 14.
.

http://petapixel.com/2013/11/08/nikon-cuts-sales-forecast-yet-dslr-sales-stall-df-preorders-come-subpar/ (http://petapixel.com/2013/11/08/nikon-cuts-sales-forecast-yet-dslr-sales-stall-df-preorders-come-subpar/)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Mt Spokane Photography on November 08, 2013, 07:36:26 PM
First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales.  Its sad to see Nikon hurting so much, they seem a bit dysfunctional and keep casting around seemingly at random looking for a winner.
 
I have a theory about the Df, and its based on Nikon having to commit to a certain volume of sensors purchased from Sony.  In short, Nikon needed to turn their surplus of expensive sensors into cash, and a niche camera that was a high profit item designed for those with plenty of cash and willing to spend it for such a product.  I don't think they ever expected it to be a big seller, just a way to use up extra sensors and make a few bucks doing it.
 
The Nikon situation only points up Canon's very conservative philosophy of mass production at a low cost, so that they not only make more profit per unit, but when times are tough, they can cut the price drastically to grab market share and still show a respectable profit.  You do not do this by spending truck loads of money developing, tooling, stocking, and advertising niche models.
 
 Canon is hanging on to their cash and cutting prices to increase sales of existing products and only turning out new or updated products to meet some specific internally defined goals.  That's why we see the big profit difference.  It has little to do with a product being the best of the best and everything to do with giving priority to designing products that can be made and sold for a profit even if the price must be cut way back.  Its not something that happens overnight, Canon has done this for the last 60 years.  Every cent that goes into a product is questioned and squeezed out if it is not deemed to be worth much more than a penny in ROI.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 08, 2013, 07:57:28 PM
First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales.

not porsche. :)

Quote
I have a theory about the Df, and its based on Nikon having to commit to a certain volume of sensors purchased from Sony. 

as far as i know chipworks reported the D4 sensor is not a sony sensor.

and im not sure if sony plants are used for manufacturing.

also i read the DF was 4 years in the making.
that would speak against the theory it was born out of "sensor overproduction".
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Albi86 on November 09, 2013, 05:52:42 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales.  Its sad to see Nikon hurting so much, they seem a bit dysfunctional and keep casting around seemingly at random looking for a winner.
 

Strongly disagree.
The crysis hurts middle-class people, who buy consumer- and middle-range products. The market of luxury items doesn't care because its customers in most cases have not been not affected. It's not a coincidence that both Canon and Nikon are trying to focus on the "high-margin" markets.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: neuroanatomist on November 09, 2013, 06:53:24 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Albi86 on November 09, 2013, 07:09:52 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 09, 2013, 07:40:46 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.

then do it for the whole year and show us the results.
as neuro said it´s not as easy as looking at the 6 month report numbers.

posting a link to overall camera sales when we talk about DSLR sales is of not much help.... so much is certain. ;)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Albi86 on November 09, 2013, 07:59:08 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.

then do it for the whole year and show us the results.
as neuro said it´s not as easy as looking at the 6 month report numbers.

posting a link to overall camera sales when we talk about DSLR sales is of not much help.... so much is certain. ;)

As it seems you haven't grasped the sense of the lines you quoted, the point is in fact that the article is about DSLR sale decline, though it's not clear if the figures refer to that or to camera sales in total.

Something being easy doesn't make it correct, by the way.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: neuroanatomist on November 09, 2013, 08:57:18 AM
As it seems you haven't grasped the sense of the lines you quoted, the point is in fact that the article is about DSLR sale decline, though it's not clear if the figures refer to that or to camera sales in total.

dSLR sales are currently dropping, no one is arguing that point.  Given that Canon is predicting their first drop in annual dSLR sales (predicting, as in when their fiscal year ends, which hasn't happened yet), I'd argue that looking at the prior 12 months from now would not be as useful as looking at the past six (unless you'd prefer to paint a rosier picture).

But I posted data showing that Nikon sales of dSLRs are dropping much faster than Canon's, and you replied with a quote you seemed to think says the opposite, but doesn't.

Now, let's look again at your 'evidence' but in context:

Quote
According to Mr. Chute’s research, the rate of market decline is accelerating each quarter — with global shipments of all digital cameras falling 36.2% to 19.2 million units in the second quarter alone, and interchangeable lens cameras, which include DSLRs, falling 10.9% to just 4 million units shipped. Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

First off, re-reading the whole paragraph, it's obvious the '23% less cameras than a year ago' refers to all cameras, not just dSLRs. Second, the quarterly drop is for all ILCs, which includes dSLRs and mirrorless. While Canon doesn't have much of a stake in the mirrorless market, Nikon, Sony and Fuji do...Nikon has stated their mirrorless sales have taken a big hit. Finally, I'm referencing the companies' own data, and you're quoting a blog piece that quotes a someone from a market research firm.  I hope you know that such firms are not unbiased, but rather publish information that attempts to direct investors in a direction desired by those who sponsor the market research firm.

Something being easy doesn't make it correct, by the way.

By the way, 'something easy' is what you did - take an excerpt from someone else's writing, and copy-paste....and you're right, that doesn't make it correct (or even applicable, in this case). 
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Woody on November 09, 2013, 10:47:19 AM
As it seems you haven't grasped the sense of the lines you quoted, the point is in fact that the article is about DSLR sale decline, though it's not clear if the figures refer to that or to camera sales in total.

Something being easy doesn't make it correct, by the way.

Here are some definite numbers to work with:

a) From the latest CIPA numbers (http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/dizital.html) (till Sep 2013) and Nikon's Nov 2013 financial report (http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2014/14_2qf_d_e.pdf), 7,481,644 DSLRs were shipped in the period Mar-Sep 2013, of which 2,980,000 (39.8%) came from Nikon. Most of the remaining 60.2% of shipped DSLRs probably came from Canon since we do not expect Pentax and Sony to sell many DSLRs. That gives us a hint of Canon's market shares in the DSLR arena for the period Mar-Sep 2013.

b) In the period of Jan-Sep 2013, for every MILC shipped worldwide, 4.66 DSLRs were shipped.

c) Thom Hogan just posted his latest analysis/prediction of the market here (http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-financials-posted.html) based on Nikon's financial report. He translated Nikon's forecast of 6.2 mil interchangeable lens cameras (DSLR + MILC) into 33.1% market shares.Canon expects (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/uk-canon-earnings-idUKBRE99N0CD20131024) to sell 8 mil interchangeable lens cameras which is equivalent to 42.7% market shares based on Thom Hogan's analysis. Total Canikon market shares add up to 75.8%, consistent with 2010, 2011 and 2012 numbers.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 09, 2013, 11:13:29 AM
Unfortunately, exact numbers are either not broken down in enough detail and/or all over the place, since press realeases and articles alike are obsure and/or poorly written.

The big picture is clear:

* consumers
not buying much. Money is tight, they got smartüphones and most of the households got comapct cameras and often a low-end DSLR as well. Most consumers have smartened up sufficently to realize their DSLR+kit lens sit in the closet most of the time and their smartphones deliver good enough IQ. Market saturated - not only compacts, but also more-of the-same-and-only-marginally-better, iterative low-end DLSRs. All manufacturers similarly affected. Except for a few moving up into enthusiast segment, will generally not return to buy another dwarf-sensor compact or DSLRs in the future.

* prosumer/enthusiast
smartened up and come to realize those boxy-clunky mirrorslappers are nearing end of shelf live. Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs. Ideally coming from their current manufacturer to increase chances, some lenses will continue to work quite well (via adapter) and not having to learn a new user interface. They are sitting on the fence and also don't buy as many lenses since future of systems is open.
Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.   

* pro
economy is tight. Minimize capex. Overall very conservative market segment. Will buy what is absolutely needed from CaNikon. Old farts and those shooting  long lenses / fast action will stick with DSLRs for at least 2 more rounds [5D Mk. V and Nikon D6 likely to be "final models"].  Will eventually also move to mirrorless, but over a longer period of time ... 5 years+   


Canon and Nikon are looking at a quickly closing "launch window" for mirrorless FF. If they don't get it done in 2014, they'll be really really hard hit. Nikon will go under first. But Canon is not safe either, if they bungle it.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Woody on November 09, 2013, 11:23:54 AM
Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs...

Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.

Here we go again, folks who predict the demise of DSLRs and the triumph of MILCs. People have been saying this for years since the appearance of the first MILC... Yet, this has not been borne out by actual shipment numbers. In N. America and Europe, for every MILC sold in 2013, 9 to 10 DSLRs are sold. Yes, that is how poorly received MILCs are.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Sporgon on November 09, 2013, 11:29:13 AM


The big picture is clear:

Given your précis of the camera Market I think you missed off two words:

'as mud'

"All hail the mirrorless !". Going to change the world.



Not.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: WPJ on November 09, 2013, 11:47:06 AM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop of y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops of y/y unit dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...
Which is interesting, considering that, by the specs, they released the two more interesting DSLRs of the last year (D800 with big MP, and D600 for cheap). Seems like innovating on the camera body side of things isnt enough to get people to buy.

or people are clever enough to realize that for 13x18cm prints or flickr/facebook uploads a 36 MP camera is just overkill.
it only slows down your editing process and you need lot of harddisk space.

let´s be honest, most people do 10x15cm or 13x18cm prints 98% of the time.
even with a lot of cropping you don´t need 36 MP for that.

the "oil of nikon" D600 has kind of a bad reputation.

prints most,of the time?  Who prints....i have not been shown a print from someone in years, its all on a phone or tablet.... In fact the only prints I have seen in the last 3 years has been my kids school/soccer pics and the few,books my wife has printed.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: David Hull on November 09, 2013, 11:50:16 AM
not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

sarcasm? :)


Quote
But the bad news doesn’t stop there, it continues to roll with rumors of lackluster Df pre-sales published by Nikon Rumors. NR claims that unofficial info from several retailers has Df demand “not even close” to what D800 demand was when it came out.
 
To substantiate that claim, NR points out that the Df isn’t even in the top 20 best-selling DSLRs on Amazon, while the D610 (not exactly the most popular release Nikon has ever had, given all of the pissed off D600 users) is up at number 14.
.

http://petapixel.com/2013/11/08/nikon-cuts-sales-forecast-yet-dslr-sales-stall-df-preorders-come-subpar/ (http://petapixel.com/2013/11/08/nikon-cuts-sales-forecast-yet-dslr-sales-stall-df-preorders-come-subpar/)
This is not surprising IMO.  The D800 satisfied a pent up demand for a High MP camera among Nikonians who had been riding the low res train for a long time.  I think a lot of them would have been happier with something a bit lower like 25MP, but just the same it got them way past 12 MP.  What "problem" does the Df solve?
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: David Hull on November 09, 2013, 11:52:57 AM
First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales.  Its sad to see Nikon hurting so much, they seem a bit dysfunctional and keep casting around seemingly at random looking for a winner.
 
I have a theory about the Df, and its based on Nikon having to commit to a certain volume of sensors purchased from Sony.  In short, Nikon needed to turn their surplus of expensive sensors into cash, and a niche camera that was a high profit item designed for those with plenty of cash and willing to spend it for such a product.  I don't think they ever expected it to be a big seller, just a way to use up extra sensors and make a few bucks doing it.
 
The Nikon situation only points up Canon's very conservative philosophy of mass production at a low cost, so that they not only make more profit per unit, but when times are tough, they can cut the price drastically to grab market share and still show a respectable profit.  You do not do this by spending truck loads of money developing, tooling, stocking, and advertising niche models.
 
 Canon is hanging on to their cash and cutting prices to increase sales of existing products and only turning out new or updated products to meet some specific internally defined goals.  That's why we see the big profit difference.  It has little to do with a product being the best of the best and everything to do with giving priority to designing products that can be made and sold for a profit even if the price must be cut way back.  Its not something that happens overnight, Canon has done this for the last 60 years.  Every cent that goes into a product is questioned and squeezed out if it is not deemed to be worth much more than a penny in ROI.
You may be on to something here.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: WPJ on November 09, 2013, 12:00:23 PM
i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time. 
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.

i have a friend who bought a 600D because he liked my pictures.
 
now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp". :)

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.  ;)

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".
his problem is, when he does portraits the head only occupies 1/6 of the frame and then he crops like mad. told him a few times to get closer... he makes the same errors again and again.

some people really don´t need a DSLR.
he likes my macro and portrait shots but even after 16 month he still takes pictures in P mode.
and he wonders that with the "expensive" DSLR his images doesn´t look much better then with his 190 euro P&S. for him light is light..... you only need enough. :)

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.

as I see your explanation your trying to do good and tech him how to use it but he doesn't care, just tell him to out it on the green square and I bet he will be happier
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 09, 2013, 12:07:02 PM

Here we go again, folks who predict the demise of DSLRs and the triumph of MILCs. People have been saying this for years since the appearance of the first MILC... Yet, this has not been borne out by actual shipment numbers. In N. America and Europe, for every MILC sold in 2013, 9 to 10 DSLRs are sold. Yes, that is how poorly received MILCs are.

Of course not many wanted to buy yesterdays shitty mirrorless. Dwarf-sensored nikon 1? Slow as molasses eos-m? Retro styled fujis? mft-sensored stuff? Poor EVFs? Give me a break!

It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese. This time round it might be korea and taiwan doing it to the japanese. Hehe!
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: neuroanatomist on November 09, 2013, 12:14:49 PM
It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese.

You might be half right. 'Good' won't cut it...what's needed is good and cheap.  That's what was behind the success of SLRs - getting them into the hands of 'the masses'. Those folks are buying entry level dSLRs, and until mirrorless offers similar performance in a similar price range (<$800), mirrorless will remain a niche market.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: David Hull on November 09, 2013, 12:38:23 PM
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article (http://business.financialpost.com/2013/10/05/point-shoot-collapse-why-big-camera-companies-are-the-next-blackberry/?__lsa=3660-46ca), the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.
I think that the sales of DSLR's has been a bit of a bubble.  The world went digital and sales have tracked the trend of better, faster, cheaper (in some cases) with a lot of people moving into digital.  Now though, the equipment has become "good enough" and the market has become saturated.  Everyone who wants one has one of some sort and now all the manufacturers are doing is servicing a saturated market.  There is nothing that I am really dissatisfied about with my 5DIII and the lenses I have.  I can’t really think of a really compelling feature that they could build into a 5DIV that would make me want to immediately run out and upgrade.  I think there is a lot of that sentiment out there. 
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 09, 2013, 02:18:00 PM
You might be half right. 'Good' won't cut it...what's needed is good and cheap.  That's what was behind the success of SLRs - getting them into the hands of 'the masses'. Those folks are buying entry level dSLRs, and until mirrorless offers similar performance in a similar price range (<$800), mirrorless will remain a niche market.

absolutely. Remember 2003? Canon? "Digital Rebel" @ USD/€  999,- ? First "good enough" and truly affordable DSLR. Huge success, DSLRs became ubiquituos.

10 yeras later. 2013. Time for a FF mirrorless "digital rebel". Although, even then the rush will not be as big this time. In 2003 those smartphones did not take very good stills. Not to mention halfway-decent video. In one small package. ;-)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: aznable on November 09, 2013, 05:26:25 PM

Of course not many wanted to buy yesterdays shitty mirrorless. Dwarf-sensored nikon 1? Slow as molasses eos-m? Retro styled fujis? mft-sensored stuff? Poor EVFs? Give me a break!

It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese. This time round it might be korea and taiwan doing it to the japanese. Hehe!

and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 09, 2013, 05:58:38 PM

and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol

I am just observing the market. And looking out for my next camera after my 7d. I still like it.  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)



Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Woody on November 09, 2013, 06:43:21 PM
I am just observing the market. And looking out for my next camera after my 7d. I still like it.  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)

I tried to leave the mirror slap 1.5 years ago. Got myself an OMD EM5. Used it for a year. Took it for a trip but hated the shooting experience so much the camera stayed in my bag most of the time even though it was always with me. Hated the EVF. Hated the ergonomics. Sold the camera and plunged headlog back into the world of DSLRs.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 09, 2013, 06:56:31 PM
I tried to leave the mirror slap 1.5 years ago. Got myself an OMD EM5. Used it for a year. Took it for a trip but hated the shooting experience so much the camera stayed in my bag most of the time even though it was always with me. Hated the EVF. Hated the ergonomics. Sold the camera and plunged headlog back into the world of DSLRs.

I hear you. We are almost there. One more push ... Better EVF, better AF. Soon.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Bennymiata on November 09, 2013, 07:56:43 PM
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.

Why would you pay twice the price for a mirrorless camera than an equivalent DSLR?
I think a lot of people like the idea of a smaller camera, but when it comes to shelling out YOUR money, they look like a bad and overpriced piece of dead technology.
Why are mirrorless cameras so expensive in comparison to DSLR's?
They should be half the price, especially considering their poor viewfinders (if they have one at all), poor ergonomics (it's hard to keep a camera still when it's being held at arm's length) and expensive lenses.

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 09, 2013, 07:59:17 PM
and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol

Quote from: AvTvM
  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)

makes you wonder what he will do all day when he can´t complain about canon.  ;)

don´t know why people think they have to tell the world they will switch to mirrorless/sony/nikon whatever.... as if i (or anyone who reads it) cares.  ::)

attention... attention im switching to mirrorless...!! inform the press. ;)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: ajfotofilmagem on November 09, 2013, 08:26:57 PM
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.

Why would you pay twice the price for a mirrorless camera than an equivalent DSLR?
I think a lot of people like the idea of a smaller camera, but when it comes to shelling out YOUR money, they look like a bad and overpriced piece of dead technology.
Why are mirrorless cameras so expensive in comparison to DSLR's?
They should be half the price, especially considering their poor viewfinders (if they have one at all), poor ergonomics (it's hard to keep a camera still when it's being held at arm's length) and expensive lenses.

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.
Yes, SL1 was a huge gamble for Canon. It is not revolutionary, but it is the best in its category. On the other hand, Nikon shot himself in the foot with the odd mirrorles "J1" and its tiny sensor. When the sensor Canon 70D also arrive in M2 will be a more interesting option than the Sony NEX leader.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Sporgon on November 10, 2013, 03:35:37 AM

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.

+1, they're very popular here in the UK.
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 10, 2013, 06:12:30 AM
to be honest.... personally i don´t care about the SL1.

it´s not small enough to be pocketable (my sony RX100 is the maximum size in that regard for me).

and when it´s not small enough to be pocketable, then i prefer a camera that feels good in my (big) hands.

so i don´t need smaller cameras but i would not mind lighter cameras.
thought i prefer pentaprisms over pentamirrors and magnesium bodys.
so i don´t know how much lighter they can make DSLR´s.

Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 10, 2013, 09:02:19 AM
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.
...
I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D

(http://1.static.img-dpreview.com/files/news/8152930498/520/white100d-1.jpg?v=2586)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Sporgon on November 10, 2013, 09:22:19 AM

oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D

(http://1.static.img-dpreview.com/files/news/8152930498/520/white100d-1.jpg?v=2586)

I'd put my money on Canon's market research before your  ;)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: neuroanatomist on November 10, 2013, 09:24:35 AM
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: AvTvM on November 10, 2013, 09:34:30 AM
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)

hehe! SL-1 vs. Df will duke it out.

Looking at these "fabulous" DSLRs and the equally fabulous mirrorless alternatives available, it shoukd not come as a surprise, that potential buyers simply refuse to buy. Even consumers and prosumers have learned and are smart enough to not waste their money on cameras like the Df or SL1 but rather sit back and wait just a little longer, until decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999.

If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: ajfotofilmagem on November 10, 2013, 09:47:06 AM
New Nikon DF (old?) has a restricted target purchaser, unlike Canon SL1. If Canon makes a SL2 with 70D sensor will be an even greater success for the multitude of video. And the Nikon DF ...
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Woody on November 10, 2013, 09:54:12 AM
If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)

Well, let's wait and see... I am willing to bet sales of A7 won't come close to D800/5D3/D610/6D/
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Lichtgestalt on November 10, 2013, 12:01:13 PM

oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D

(http://1.static.img-dpreview.com/files/news/8152930498/520/white100d-1.jpg?v=2586)

I'd put my money on Canon's market research before your  ;)

+1000
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Chuck Alaimo on November 10, 2013, 01:19:44 PM
Unfortunately, exact numbers are either not broken down in enough detail and/or all over the place, since press realeases and articles alike are obsure and/or poorly written.

The big picture is clear:

* consumers
not buying much. Money is tight, they got smartüphones and most of the households got comapct cameras and often a low-end DSLR as well. Most consumers have smartened up sufficently to realize their DSLR+kit lens sit in the closet most of the time and their smartphones deliver good enough IQ. Market saturated - not only compacts, but also more-of the-same-and-only-marginally-better, iterative low-end DLSRs. All manufacturers similarly affected. Except for a few moving up into enthusiast segment, will generally not return to buy another dwarf-sensor compact or DSLRs in the future.

* prosumer/enthusiast
smartened up and come to realize those boxy-clunky mirrorslappers are nearing end of shelf live. Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs. Ideally coming from their current manufacturer to increase chances, some lenses will continue to work quite well (via adapter) and not having to learn a new user interface. They are sitting on the fence and also don't buy as many lenses since future of systems is open.
Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.   

* pro
economy is tight. Minimize capex. Overall very conservative market segment. Will buy what is absolutely needed from CaNikon. Old farts and those shooting  long lenses / fast action will stick with DSLRs for at least 2 more rounds [5D Mk. V and Nikon D6 likely to be "final models"].  Will eventually also move to mirrorless, but over a longer period of time ... 5 years+   


Canon and Nikon are looking at a quickly closing "launch window" for mirrorless FF. If they don't get it done in 2014, they'll be really really hard hit. Nikon will go under first. But Canon is not safe either, if they bungle it.

Wow I'd say that's overly sure for pure speculation.  I agree on the Consumer side, but the Pro, enthusiast, prosumer market - I disagree!  Mirrorless may or may not take off.  Mirrorless may or may not sell side by side DSLR's.  Mirrorless may or may not replace DSLR's.  Mirrorless may or may not be remembered as a good idea went bad.

I's say it's more relative to market saturation and less $$$ being spent trying to create a revolutionary product because the overall economy is sliding - and sorry, there's nothing really revolutionary with mirrorless - People not buying new products especially in the prosumer enthusiast area are buying because its a shiney new thing - not because of needs.  With a tight economy, who that is taking great shots with their 2 year old rebel is gonna swap and spend 1k on something that really just doesn't show the big bang wow whistle.  The new sony's - they may be the wow now, but, have fun with those adaptors and lack of AF.  Or, have fun waiting for sony to make a few dedicated lenses then forget about the whole thing in favor of something else.

As to pro market - the big rush for the mk3 and the 1dx is done, its kind of now the hobby crowd or the slowert o upgrade crowd on those bodies ...and many of those folks may end up just snagging a 6d.  I do agree that the pro market will be more conservative - but to say all of us are just waiting around for the mirrorless replacement cycle to begin I think is just off.  As many have pointed out --- the major benefit to mirroless is size and weight, major downfall is that once you need ranges past 135mm, your stuck with an adaptor and a large heavy lens which is very awkward on a small body.  It's gonna take a hell of a lot of R&D money to get past that (creating smaller optical systems that match the quality of current high end glass, and creating in a way that reduces size and weight and keeping it all weathersealed?????)- which means longer telephoto lenses will be extremely expensive!!!!  And speaking of money, it will also take a ton of money to get EVF tech up to pro level - finding a way to reduce the battery drain, or there's more R&D...designing higher capacity batteries to deal with the increased energy need --- that alone will be tough, then you have the low light problem, the latency problem, and yeah, the how to make everything not look like puke when viewing through an EVF....

I will agree that you think mirrorless is the way, but many are way less sold on the idea, and given all the market forecasts - it does seem like the market agrees, mirrorless is currently losing ground because most of those looking for mirrorless are going to be in the ---now why would buy that when i can just use my cell phone crowd...
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: Chuck Alaimo on November 10, 2013, 01:43:23 PM
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)

hehe! SL-1 vs. Df will duke it out.

Looking at these "fabulous" DSLRs and the equally fabulous mirrorless alternatives available, it shoukd not come as a surprise, that potential buyers simply refuse to buy. Even consumers and prosumers have learned and are smart enough to not waste their money on cameras like the Df or SL1 but rather sit back and wait just a little longer, until decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999.

If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)


To improve upon the current tech in mirrorless, you need R&D money and lots of it - and unless the big 2 (canon and Nikon) believe as much as you do that mirrorless is the way of the future so much that they are willing to take HUGE losses, your dream of "decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999." just won't happen.  I don't think betting on Sony is a winning bet.  Sony has no real direction in this market - the camera world is a side project to all the other stuff sony does.  So for mirrorless to replace the existing market ---it will mean canon and nikon making it happen.

My last mirrorless prediction ----

I really think the only hope for mirrorless in the pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast world is if they can engineer a way to have the lens mount be the same as we currently have.  Yes, this means the size, form factor and weight will stay the same as current slr's.  But, I have not heard anything stating that this is how it will go, so we're left with a new system and a new mount.  No pro wants to fiddle with adaptor rings.   And unless there is a startlingly clear mind blowing oh my god improvement in IQ, what pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast is going to commit to a path of selling off their $10,000 worth of glass in order to buy $15,000 worth of mirrorless glass? 

Again, if we can use our current lens line up with a mirrorless system, no adaptor needed, native mount, same quality...it has a chance...  but again, that isn't the path mirrorless seems to be taking.  New system, new mount, new glass = DOA if you ask me.. the only way making such a huge product shift can or will happen is if the world economy goes from recessed to boom, and I mean big boom because right now there is really nothing earth shattering or groundbreaking to mirrorless ---seems like a big PITA for really no gain
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: preppyak on November 10, 2013, 01:54:52 PM
And unless there is a startlingly clear mind blowing oh my god improvement in IQ, what pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast is going to commit to a path of selling off their $10,000 worth of glass in order to buy $15,000 worth of mirrorless glass? 

Again, if we can use our current lens line up with a mirrorless system, no adaptor needed, native mount, same quality...it has a chance... 
And to further back up this point, Sony has been selling E-mount cameras for 3.5 years; meaning they've been developing the system even longer. They STILL don't have a full pro lens lineup, and without Sigma and Zeiss, I'm not sure they'd even have a semi-pro set of options. If you aren't willing to manual focus, they certaintly don't have a range of lenses that can match the L system. Is there even a tele option beyond 200mm?
Title: Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
Post by: moreorless on November 11, 2013, 11:41:57 AM
Personally I think a small FF mirrorless(rather than a large one with DSLR form factor and mount but no mirror) is always likely to be a limated market simply because of the lens sizes involved(large AF lenses designed for digital as well not small manual film rangefinder lenses) and FF users demands for advanced controls. Sony isn't the only manufacturer with the ability to go after this market, its the only manufacturer desperate enough to given the failiure of its FF DSLR/SLT cameras.

The net is a very poor guide to actual sales here as your dealing with a very small but very vocal group. Just look at the Fuji X system, via net hype they should be earning massive sales yet there still only a tiny bit player in the mirrorless market as a whole, behind even Canon with one rushed body and three lenses.