Who says there will be any reduction in the number of would-be pro photographers? As I said the supply has always far outstripped the demand. There is no evidence that will change. As for the "clearer separation of quality" again, that's in the eye of the beholder and there is nothing to suggest that the average customer is going to suddenly become either more perceptive or willing to pay for the difference in quality.
I think there might be fewer would-be pros because there will be a higher barrier of entry. Amateurs won't have a SLR if all they use is their cellphone, and they won't know how to use one. That doesn't mean there won't be more would-be pros than is needed, just that the ratio may go from 5-to-1 to 2-to-1.
As for the difference in quality, I'm not talking about slight differences in sharpness and dynamic range, but about real differences in what the picture shows and what it can be used for.
- Size: If you want an advertisement billboard, you can't use a cellphone picture because it will look like crap. If you're a portrait photographer, you could offer 60" prints that will blow out of the water anything a cellphone can output.
- Bokeh: Everything is in focus in a cellphone photo, so you can't have bokeh. If a client wants a picture with a blurred background, then a camera will a large sensor must be used.
- Zoom: Cellphones have a prime wide-angle lens. If you want pictures of something distant, like sports or animals, then you need a camera with decently-sized lens. Again, gear makes a difference here.
If you're that negative about the photography market, then you should just leave the business. No sense continuing if you think things are already bad and only becoming worse. Yeah, photography as a commodity is dying. You must find a way to make your offer stand out as a uniquely desirable service if you want to succeed.