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Author Topic: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.  (Read 25410 times)

Pi

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2013, 09:28:18 PM »
Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger

How much would a 70-200 lens for the a7 weigh and how much smaller would it be?

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2013, 09:28:18 PM »

Hillsilly

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #31 on: November 26, 2013, 12:22:10 AM »
Advancements will have slowed to a snail pace with new features more related to processing speed (eg better/faster AF) and connectivity than sensor / IQ improvments.  With only incremental improvements to IQ, most photographers will start seeing their camera as "good enough" and sales of higher end cameras will decline.  To counter this, we'll see a more modular approach to the 5D5 and IDX3 with most components able to be upgraded easily (but not necessarily cheaply) at Canon service centres.  Even though many people won't update their camera as frequently, Canon will hope that many people will still give their cameras a mid-life refresh 2 to 3 years after buying it.

One they sort out on-sensor AF, Canon will jump over to mirrorless.  But just as you can still but a 1V, you'll still be able to buy a DSLR.  Interestingly, the mirrorless version will be touted as the higher end model, as it will have more accurate focus and faster fps.

On the 1 series bodies, Canon will take a hybrid aproach.  They will still have a mirror, but at the flick of a switch, the camera enters mirror-up mode and an EVF screen appears in the viewfinder.  Best of both worlds.  (Keeping the EF mount allows Canon to do this).
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sandymandy

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #32 on: November 26, 2013, 02:50:16 AM »
perhaps a retro neo hipster camera will come out that looks like the 7D. tbh i dont think anything really big will happen.

Eldar

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #33 on: November 26, 2013, 02:53:04 AM »
I don´t believe there is any question that the future is mirror less. As soon as EVFs become good enough, there is no question that the benefits and flexibility they can provide will make mirror based cameras redundant.

A few advantages:
1: It can give you better viewing capabilities in low light
2: It can give you true FF, APS-H APS-C selection capability, where the viewer adapts to the selected format
3: It can give you a near silent shutter
4: It can give you higher fps
5: It gives you design options you can´t have with a mirror based body
6: It removes mechanical parts, which should improve its MTBF
7: It will give more AF functionality options

But!
I believe the current mirror less cameras (I have not looked through a only A7/A7R yet) still have a way to go to outperform a mirror based camera.
I don´t believe the A7 type bodies are what we will see in the future, but rather new designs that gives further improvements in functional layout and mechanical design, which does´t necessarily mean small.
More equipment than skills, but everything is used :)
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Woody

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #34 on: November 26, 2013, 02:58:48 AM »
I don´t believe there is any question that the future is mirror less. As soon as EVFs become good enough, there is no question that the benefits and flexibility they can provide will make mirror based cameras redundant.

One of my biggest gripes about EVF: not as bright as OVF, poor DR compared to OVF. I doubt the EVF can ever match OVF in this department because the human eye adapts far more quickly than EVFs.

EchoLocation

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #35 on: November 26, 2013, 04:40:18 AM »
Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger

How much would a 70-200 lens for the a7 weigh and how much smaller would it be?
the Sony FE mount f4 version is pretty similar to Canon's current offering(based on a visual comparison alone.)
That being said, if you read my whole comment you would see that I specifically mention that most pros will still use DSLR's. However, I know about 10-15 people with DSLR's(all amateurs) and only 1 of them has the 70-200(the f4 he bought for 350 bucks on CL) or anything longer(besides those cheap 18-300 superzooms.)
I myself want a small camera with a few small primes for when I travel for extended periods of time and for carrying around daily in my backpack.
If I have to sacrifice ergonomics with long lenses, that I never use, for this, then that is an easy choice to make.
I know for people who regularly use long, heavy lenses this sentiment may be very different, but that is not the majority of DSLR buyers.
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Niki

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2013, 05:46:56 AM »
canon and nikon will be able to match the pixels in a film frame

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2013, 05:46:56 AM »

Rat

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #37 on: November 26, 2013, 06:11:57 AM »
Thus, if we believe DXOMark

Well that's a bit of a stretch.
Fed up with brandism.

Efka76

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #38 on: November 26, 2013, 06:54:57 AM »
My predictions:

1) No significant changes in lenses. Some lenses will be updated, sharpness, overall IQ slightly improved. If we take a look how old current lenses are we will see that some of them were introduced 10 years or more ago. However, I would expect that Sigma and Tamron will be on the same level as Canon / Nikon. Canon / Nikon will loose quite significant share to Sigma and Tamron in lens area.

2) I would expect introduction of new sensors generation (also, I would not be surprised if Canon would stll use "old" sensors, i.e. introduced next year, even after 10 years) :)

3) All DSLRs will include wi-fi, GPS and some other features which are included in current P&S cameras :) In 10 years I expect to see 2 additional generations of DIGIC processors, which will enable higher processing power required for high MP cameras. Semi-pro, pro cameras will have 40-60 MP (I do not think that Canon or Nikon will go so deep in medium format area and introduce 100 MP in FF cameras).

4) Hasselblad, Phase One and other MF companies will be bought by Canon, Nikon, or Sony. MF will still be used by professionals only, however, MF cameras and lenses prices will be much lower (but still not affordable to amateurs). What's a difference if cameras system costs not USD 50,000 but USD 30,000 :D

5) In Canon rumours people will still be moaning that cameras should have better DR, should be able to cope with high ISO and require more megapixels. Many current CR forum members will be pensioners and will switch to mirrorless cameras as they are much lighter :D

6) Ken Rockwell will still be begging everybody for money but on a much higher scale (many Internet TV channels) :D
« Last Edit: November 26, 2013, 06:58:17 AM by Efka76 »
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Pi

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #39 on: November 26, 2013, 07:30:09 AM »
11. The DR of Canon will reach that of Nikon today.  ;)

Eldar

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #40 on: November 26, 2013, 07:32:42 AM »
More equipment than skills, but everything is used :)
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100

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #41 on: November 26, 2013, 07:46:50 AM »
A couple of stops more dynamic range and better high iso…. Nice to have but a bit boring.
Why don’t we aim higher technology wise? Something like Artificial or Synthetic Biological Image Sensors combined with a liquid optical construction? Or maybe something like print on demand optics (3D printing), buy just the design and print it at your local 3D print shop, or design your own lens and print it.

Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete.  Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need.

Remember the Buggles?  1979…  Video killed the radio star
http://youtu.be/Iwuy4hHO3YQ
A guilty pleasure, I know, but to some extent we are like the old radio stars and the times they are a-changin'
On the bright side, radio is still here, so there is hope for us ;-)   

Pi

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2013, 08:04:20 AM »
Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete.  Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need.

Hm..., to replicate a 10 sec night shot, I would need 600 frames...

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2013, 08:04:20 AM »

100

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #43 on: November 26, 2013, 08:51:27 AM »
Hm..., to replicate a 10 sec night shot, I would need 600 frames...

Long exposure (night) shots is a bit of a niche market. Video won't replace macro stacks either and if you look hard enough there will be more fields of stills photography where you can't do the same with high resolution video. Large format photography is still mostly analogue these days for instance. But 80 or 90% of today’s photos will be possible with tomorrow’s video equipment.

Don Haines

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #44 on: November 26, 2013, 08:54:34 AM »
Technology is great, but once we can shoot 4k, 8k or higher video at 30, 60 or more frames per second with all the dynamic range you need and nearly perfect intelligent autofocus capabilities, the stills photographer might become obsolete.  Just grab the best frame and print it as big as you want or need.

Hm..., to replicate a 10 sec night shot, I would need 600 frames...

10 seconds! I've done 3 hour long star trails.... that's a LOT of frames.... There is also image stacking, where we already shoot video of an astronomical object, extract a few thousand frames, and then process them.. A time and a place for both techniques.
The best camera is the one in your hands

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #44 on: November 26, 2013, 08:54:34 AM »