September 30, 2014, 10:34:33 AM

Author Topic: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs  (Read 4173 times)

Sporgon

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2013, 04:23:13 AM »
Leica are really known for their success with single lens reflex cameras  ::)

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2013, 04:23:13 AM »

Niki

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2013, 06:40:15 AM »
agreed….canon can stay in the game with firmware updates for their older dslr bodies and lens…matching whatever is out there in ten years..… which will probably be much smaller bodies for a much cheaper price

MrFotoFool

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2013, 09:34:57 AM »
When color film came out decades ago, many predicted black and white film would become obsolete.  This was well before digital, in which people say all film is now obsolete.  And yet I work at a professional photo lab that still sells black and white film.  It is clearly a niche market - which is what may happen with SLR's - but they will not go away entirely.  I cannot imagine using anything else myself (except for pocket camera snapshots) - but time will tell...

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2013, 10:03:19 AM »
As soon as Adorama releases my $$, I will purchase my 300 2.8 II from B$H, so I am not worried.  He is a CEO, so he has to present a vision to the world, and sound confident.  Leica sells 600-700 film cameras/year-great.  Their mainstay cameras are expensive, and though I don't have numbers (Neuro, your que), they don't dominate.

In Tech terms, 10 years is forever.  Even the young amongst us will be old(er).  Who knows what the next generation will prefer, and who can predict what preferences will be, what the tech will be, and what will sell?

Also consider your point Dylan (and mine too).  We are invested in the whole ecosystem and we love our glass.  There are other things to consider like ergonomics. Just for a fun example, what if they could make a mirrorless system and improve the electronics such that it bests the current 1DX AND fits in the SL1 body, AND takes all of the current EF lenses?  Not taking price into consideration, many people just won't buy it because of form factor alone.  Form factor is one of many things frequently mentioned (both plus and minus) about Nikon's current DF offering.

So I'm doubling down on my lenses, and working hard to improve my skills.  Let's see what the heated competition can do for us!  I say bring it- but don't put it into a toy body- please.

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I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D

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Albi86

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2013, 12:46:49 PM »
It's worth remembering that the guy spoke in very hypothetical terms. There is no prophecy of doom, although maybe a little enjoyment in seeing the market segment that jeopardized them being jeopardized in return.

However, even 1 year ago, when DSLR market was growing double-digit year-to-year, nobody would have imagined what happened this year. Consumer electronics is an ever volatile market.

As somebody mentioned before, film is not dead - Leica still has around 650 order a year. It has however become a real niche market, and the possibility that one day DSLR will be the same is not to be discarded. How many people, after all, invest in 300mm f/2.8 and the like? The whole world goes towards portability, networking and software functionality; something smartphones are teaching the hard way to camera manufacturers.

AJ

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #20 on: December 15, 2013, 05:22:06 AM »
Right. 

Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured. 

And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2013, 05:25:35 AM by AJ »

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2013, 07:41:00 PM »
http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/leica-ceo-syas-not-sure-dslr-will-still-be-alive-in-10-years-no-way-we-go-mft/

I better enjoy my recent purchase Canon 300mm f2.8 IS II before my DSLR dies ;D

I'm not sure how they going to make 24-70 f2.8, 85mm f1.4, 135mm f2, 70-200 f2.8, 300mm f2.8 list goes on...small enough to go with mirrorless body.

I suspect the DSLR will still be here. For all the hype mirrorless gets, it's market isn't particularly strong except in a few sub markets (namely, Japan.) Conversely, the DSLR market has remained very strong, and I believe if the root causes of the recent moderate downturn were fully investigated, a multitude of other far more significant reasons BESIDES mirrorless would be found culprit.

In ten years time, I bet the DSLR shares the market 50/50 with Mirrorless, maybe 40/60. I think the DSLR will die hard, if it truly dies at all. What I think will really happen is DSLR users augment their kit with the addition of a mirrorless, but continue to use both. (At least, that's what I suspect I will do myself, and I know there are a lot of the silent majority out there who think just like me when it comes to mirrorless options, EVF vs. OVF, etc.)
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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #21 on: December 15, 2013, 07:41:00 PM »

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #22 on: December 15, 2013, 10:36:05 PM »
Right. 

Remember, 10 years ago we thought that in 2013 we'd be driving hydrogen-powered cars, our houses would be lit by power obtained through cold nuclear fusion, and cancer would be cured. 

And we thought APSC was just going to be a stop-gap format.
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ScottyP

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #23 on: December 27, 2013, 11:40:49 AM »
As long as they make the mirrorless bodies compatible with the EF lenses, who really cares?  People expect to replace camera bodies an a semi-regular basis anyway.  But I don't see how it would make sense for Canon to 5h1+can all its great lenses and start over.

I also think the tiny body thing will not take over.  The ergonomics are just not there.  People with cameras smaller than 1DX are constantly adding battery grips, which make the camera larger.  That is not just about battery life; some folks like (or at least don't mind) the bigger size, because that also makes them easier to hold onto. 

Look at cell phones!  For years they got littler and littler, and for a while an absurdly tiny phone was a status symbol.  (Zoolander) But then functionality and ergonomics surged back, and now iPhones and smart phones are pretty big, because that makes them easier and more pleasant to work with.
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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2013, 01:37:05 AM »
Of course Leica's CEO would say mirrorless would take over...rangefinder cameras are mirrorless, and they're what Leica have been known for, for what, almost a century?

It's kind of like Apple saying whatever they make is going to take over.  They're losing their luster, and now Samsung and others are taking over.

I would bet heavily on a professional camera body still having a reflex mirror 15 or 20 years from now, and especially still being as large as a 1-series body (perhaps a bit lighter, but the same physical size).  The technique is just too established, and the physics are against an EVF ever totally replacing a mirror and pentaprism.  Even if phase autofocus goes away, there will still be some sort of mirror and prism.  But I'm not even sure phase autofocus will ever go away...not for stills photography anyway.  It kind of has to for video.

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Re: Leica CEO: DSLR might not be alive next 10yrs
« Reply #24 on: December 28, 2013, 01:37:05 AM »