Now there's a random thing that i've noticed. For anyone who doesn't know, i spend a *lot* of time on ebay (just ask my missus).
I've been tracking some second hand prices (dependant on condition, of course) lately, and here's what i've found. A few weeks ago, it looked like this:
5D - $800-1000
1Ds2 - $1200-1700
5D2 - $1600-1900
5D2 New - $1800-2200 (depending on exchange rates and how trustworthy is the seller).
Now, in the last week, I've noticed a disproportionate number of 5D (mark 1) bodies going, and they're going for a lot cheaper than normal, some as low as $600 in decent condition. I'm seeing more than 20 bodies in the list (still bidding) for less than $800. Some might end up over $800, but with a supply like this, the average price is going to drop.
But the weirder thing is, the 5D2 is not being sold at all. there's like 3 in the list that started below $1600, compared to a normal week of 6-10.
(1Ds2 doesn't sell enough to see any kind of trend yet)
What I think is happening is two things:
The 5D classic owners have had enough use of their bodies, 5 years is a good lifespan, and they're ditching them now in favour of nikon, or to beat the price drop once the 5D3 is announced.
The 5D2 owners are going the other way. Given that the D800 is launching over $3k, they figure that the 5D3 will do likewise, so a used 5D2 is going to be more attractive, and they're banking on a slight price rise to a used 5D2 later, so not selling them now.
You want a cheap FF, without fancy AF and without money and features wasted on video and things you won't need? Get a 5D mk1, and get it now while they're cheap. (I was contemplating a 1Ds2, maybe i'll get a cheap 5Dmk1 if i see one $500 or so)
(and I totally agree with whoever pointed it out already, just because we'd like a cheaper FF doesn't mean it's going to happen, canon has no competition and has no incentive to bring out a $1500 FF body, unless they want to compete with the prices of their old used bodies. That in itself is not a good thing, because if their used bodies go too far down in price they're not as attractive to buy new, total cost of ownership ($new price - $2nd hand sell price) goes down and then their bodies are not as attractive to buy new...)