Rebates Extended = No 5DMIII Announcement until After March 3rd?

[yossarian]

Given the recent rebate extension, which includes double savings with the purchase of a VDSLR (including the 5DMII), has Canon just tipped its hand on an announcement date for the 5DMIII? It seems unlikely to me that they would announce the MIII until after it ends on March 3rd, to prevent blunting the sale's effectiveness.

(Also note the date: 5DM3 announced on 3/3. )

Conspirancy theories aside, this sounds like the thinking of a marketing department to me.

Apple does the same thing with iPhones, running massive sales just before the announcement of a new model to burn off inventory. It's an open secret that the release of new models is the reason for Canon's current generosity, but I think it's interesting that nobody's made note of the possible significance of the sale's end date. Granted, those who have been waiting patiently for the 5DMIII for years are mainly pros/enthusiasts. One might assume these people follow the rumor mill more closely and are more savvy to what's going on (read: less likely to be swayed by flashy, extra savings, no pun intended).

Is my logic sound on this? Are we looking at an announcement on 3/3 (or later)?

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

No. Rebates are going on almost all the time, year after year. They have nothing to do with new product announcements. There is a general rebate every Spring and every fall with lots of smaller ones in between, usually always one going on.

 

[yossarian]

But are they always extended, along with additional rebates tied to the purchase of soon-to-be-replaced bodies?

Your point is well taken, but I think it's a bit dismissive to say the current rebates (particularly the timing of the extension) have nothing to do with the impending release of the 5DMIII.

 

[Loswr]

There was a rebate last fall, the summer before that, and the spring before that. Did those have anything to do with the 5DIII? No.

Also...these are rebates offered by Canon USA, a business subdivision of Canon, Inc. To suggest that these 'local' rebates are driving the corporate release timing is like the tail wagging the dog.

 

[Positron]

With the Nikon D800 imminent, I figure if Canon likes keeping their dominant market share in the affordable full-frame segment the 5D Mark III had better be forthcoming shortly. It would be a big business mistake not to. But hey, I'm just speculating as much as anyone else here.

 

[distant.star]

Conspirancy theories aside, this sounds like the thinking of a marketing department to me.

First time I ever heard "thinking" and "marketing department" in the same sentence. In my experience, marketers take their orders directly from Satan -- no thinking necessary.

 

[yossarian]

Also...these are rebates offered by Canon USA, a business subdivision of Canon, Inc. To suggest that these 'local' rebates are driving the corporate release timing is like the tail wagging the dog.

Not suggesting that at all. It'd of course be the other way round, with the US division being privvy to release dates, thus the rush to burn off some 5DMII inventory at the last minute, before its stock goes down.

There was a rebate last fall, the summer before that, and the spring before that. Did those have anything to do with the 5DIII? No.

I know they do rebates all the time, but that doesn't necessarily mean this one has absolutely nothing to do with the 5DM3 announcement, does it? I'm surprised at how quickly/thoroughly everyone is ruling out the possibility. It seems like a fairly straight forward, non-controversial assumption to me. Companies do it all the time at the end of product cycles. (Unless this sale follows the pattern exactly (i.e. a month extension, double rebates w/body purchases). If so, I stand corrected.)

Conspirancy theories aside, this sounds like the thinking of a marketing department to me.

First time I ever heard "thinking" and "marketing department" in the same sentence. In my experience, marketers take their orders directly from Satan -- no thinking necessary.

Well put.

 

[Loswr]

I know they do rebates all the time, but that doesn't necessarily mean this one has absolutely nothing to do with the 5DM3 announcement, does it? I'm surprised at how quickly/thoroughly everyone is ruling out the possibility. It seems like a fairly straight forward, non-controversial assumption to me. Companies do it all the time at the end of product cycles. (Unless this sale follows the pattern exactly (i.e. a month extension, double rebates w/body purchases). If so, I stand corrected.)

Let's see... Mar-Apr 2010, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. Oct 2010 - Jan 2011, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. I think that one got extended. Then, one month later - Feb-Mar 2011, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. None of those were followed by a 5DIII.

It's not so much that the idea is being dismissed. Yes, if they announce a 5DIII soon, the rebate will have helped them clear stock in advance of that. But the point is that this round of rebates is not intended to specifically clear stock in advance of an announcement. It's a similar rebate to those offered previously, on an approximately similar timeline. Business as usual.

 

[RedEye]

This may sound absurd, but when you're a market leader such as Canon, and are also responsible for your own tech developemnt (unlike Nikon relying on Sony), its quite possible that they just chug along and release product when it's ready. The market is so amazingly fragmented, and hugly world wide, that it's truly difficult to determine from the American/Western market releases alone if there are any indicator factors relating to their next decision process. Even if we include all the Asia launches - there are so very few data points - How many releases have we lived through? The oldest users maybe 25-30 major pro-series camera bodies? If they decide to make a randon release or in our case a random reaction to a series of naturally caused random events, it'll throw the whole estimate off substantially enough to have the reliabilty of monkeys with a stock chart. It is fun to guess however, maybe we should start a betting pool.

PS. Pray for 45MP LOL

 

[well_dunno]

Conspirancy theories aside, this sounds like the thinking of a marketing department to me.

First time I ever heard "thinking" and "marketing department" in the same sentence. In my experience, marketers take their orders directly from Satan -- no thinking necessary.

LOL
+1 to that

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

The simple answer is that they are seeing poor sales, and are cutting prices to boost sales. They had a horrible 4th quarter, even after all those big discounts in December, which probably boosted them a lot.

The President of Canon resigned.

They expect slower sales in 2012, so expect more discounts. Also expect a mirrorless body, compact camera sales are fallinng flat.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/30/canon-announces-middling-q4-2011-earnings-report-president-step/

Nikon is hurting much worse, haven written off billions of yen due to the Thasiland floods. Their 4th quarter ends March 31. Look for lots of sale prices in March to try to boose sales.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/03/nikon-posts-q3-2011-earnings-sees-extraordinary-losses-due-to/

 

[yossarian]

I know they do rebates all the time, but that doesn't necessarily mean this one has absolutely nothing to do with the 5DM3 announcement, does it? I'm surprised at how quickly/thoroughly everyone is ruling out the possibility. It seems like a fairly straight forward, non-controversial assumption to me. Companies do it all the time at the end of product cycles. (Unless this sale follows the pattern exactly (i.e. a month extension, double rebates w/body purchases). If so, I stand corrected.)

Let's see... Mar-Apr 2010, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. Oct 2010 - Jan 2011, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. I think that one got extended. Then, one month later - Feb-Mar 2011, lens rebate doubled w/ HD dSLRs. None of those were followed by a 5DIII.

It's not so much that the idea is being dismissed. Yes, if they announce a 5DIII soon, the rebate will have helped them clear stock in advance of that. But the point is that this round of rebates is not intended to specifically clear stock in advance of an announcement. It's a similar rebate to those offered previously, on an approximately similar timeline. Business as usual.

Gotcha. Wasn't hip to Canon's rebate history. Good to know.

I'm hoping we get an announcement in the next few weeks. Can't come soon enough for me. But yeah, no telling.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

But are they always extended, along with additional rebates tied to the purchase of soon-to-be-replaced bodies?

Your point is well taken, but I think it's a bit dismissive to say the current rebates (particularly the timing of the extension) have nothing to do with the impending release of the 5DMIII.

Yes, they are frequently extended, sometimes several times. Every time there is a rebate, I see people with a theory that this means Canon is discontinuing or replacing a model. Sometimes it happens, but then, with rebates so frequent, there is bound to be a coincidence.