expatinasia said:When prices are that low, CF cards will no longer be all that important. In fact, people may have already started talking about the 1DX Mark III by then.
Plus, if you are using a Canon camera with a CF card in it, then it is unlikely to shoot 4K which means that there is very little reason to have a 256GB card in the camera anyway.
It is hard to fill 64GB on a normal day and even harder to fill 128GB in a day even when shooting an all day-sports event.
I delete all pictures from my cards daily. I use 2x 64GB 1066X (Lexar) and have no need for 128GB, and definitely not 256GB and I shoot video too. That will only change when I start to shoot 4K video.
I often take week-long trips for wildlife photos and prefer not to bring the added weight of a notebook with me or bring extra cards that I may probably misplace for 6 years.
I predict prices to be that low by 2019. By then CF cards will be phased out from Canon's 2019 lineup in favor of CFast.
It is really difficult to find CF cards from where I live so I am able to sell them at the value I got them for from BH. There is a certain threshold where in pricing is acceptable and I have pegged it at nearly $100.
Diagram below better explains my market.
I would say less than 3% of camera owners using CF cards will upgrade to a 2019 cameras that use CFast cards. People who buy my cards tend to be the "late majority" and laggards.
I expect that by 2030 is when CF cards will be phased out but I could be wrong. If you check BH the 2GB-limited SD card is still being sold at $5.
My one wish is that all pro gear used one CF card replacement. Splitting it between XQD and CFast just makes it more expensive to buy.
It would be better if there was one singular memory card form factor and standard to leverage economies of scale but this is not possible.
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