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Moving forward in 2009
As mentioned before, the xxD line of cameras has been moved to a 1 year product cycle. The release of the 50D in the fall cemented that.
The disappointing thing for Canon? The 50D hasn't been very well received. It's not moving the units Canon wants. This could partially be because of the economy, but as we've seen from the 5D2, people are willing to spend. The xxD line reached its peak with the release of the 20D. It was basically the first truly affordable prosumer camera. Then came the 30D, which was lamented pretty hard for its very conservative improvements over the 20D. The 40D saw a bit of a comeback in the line, the camera was a bargain when it launched and is a super bargain today. I can't with any honesty recommend the 50D over the 40D based on their current pricing.
I'm told Canon is completely rethinking the line and needs to create some separation from the Rebels in specs. Some points made from my conversations today. Not all will happen, but it's stuff that's being and been talked about:
– Canon is developing an AF system for the midrange cameras. They don't feel the 60D buyer really needs 1D AF, which I tend to agree with. The user does deserve a better performing AF system than the Rebel user.
– More AF points. There is a notion in a lot of circles that more AF points matter in image quality. I've heard stories from retailers that have proven to me that this is true. They won't be flooding the line with 45 AF points, but you could see 11-13.
– It's time for full weather sealing in the line. The cost to do it is minimal, but they're even playing catchup to the likes of Pentax and Olympus in the area.
– They feel there is definitely a market for the APS-C sensor and will continue to develop for it. The marketing department may not get their way in the future as far as pushing more megapixels as the sole reason for an upgrade. Expect that to slow down significantly. They're finally discovering consumers are becoming smarter than that.
– The APS-H (1.3x) sensor has no future in the xxD or 1D line.
– With the resurgence of prime lenses in the market place, there could be a chance of ef-s primes or 2nd tier primes getting upgraded. Most likely the latter. This wouldn't happen until the 2nd half of 2010 at the earliest.
– The line will definitely see movie mode.
– As always, GPS and Wifi are being talked about. There could be a grip that does both that doesn't cost $1000!
– The line will most likely get chipped batteries. Canon trying to maximize on lifetime value sales.
I've had some interesting conversations lately about the line and look forward to hearing a lot more in the near and distant future. There won't be a 60D until the fall. It may also not be called a “60D”. Nikon has taken a lot of market, Canon is going to be very aggressive in getting it back. There's no doubt in my mind they will be successful.
cr
I agree with your analysis, but I also wonder if there is anything they can do to spur more sales. They should keep the 40D for another year, its far from obsolete.
I think they should have a low MP (12-15) FF in that price range. That would move like hot cakes! I think…
Wireless commander mode, please and thank you. I would also like to see a gapless multipoint autofocus.(ala d300/d700) Something that really caters towards motion tracking.
They also need to start taking risks on new technologies and ideas. New metering modes, multi-ISO sensors, in camera hdr, anything.
If they want to reboot a line of cameras, they have to go beyond just updating things.
Hehe. Why am I not surprised that the 50D is not selling as expected and its price is dropping.
The D300 holds its price not because it has 2 more megapixels than the 40D (and 3 less than the 50D) – but because it has more pro feature.
Canon wanted us to pay D300 prices (almost) for 15 noisy megapixels.
Well, 15 noisy megapixels a pro camera do not make.
Pro AF, weather sealing, and high ISO performance – these are the pro/premium features that can justify a premium price.
Two of my recession cents:
1) For weather sealing, they are indeed trying to catch up with Pentax (and Nikon; D300 is weatherproof too) but not to Olympus; only the E3 is sealed.
2) They finally got the new high-res screen; now it’s good time for an articulation on that, a la E-3 (or their own S-zoom line).
And I completely agree with the autofocus; I don’t really care for many points, but they need to cover more area (bigger lines in their sensors), and MUCH more precise. At 8Mp an error of 1/3 from the DOF is on the verge of visible error, but for 10/12/15Mpixels they simply need a waaaaay better precision.
If at least the central sensor would be more accurate, not only with f/2.8 but with every lens possible.
I’m ready to replace my 20D’s (both of them), but I don’t really like what I’ve heard about the 50D, and the 5Dmk2 didn’t improve on the prior model’s AF system, so I’m reluctant to drop the change for that, even though I have been thinking about building an underwater camera system around a new 5Dmk2.
I’m currently going through another 3000 images from another safari to Africa and simply finding too many images where the AF lost the shot. On “fast moving” objects such as a sleeping lion!
If I were to sell all my Canon glass, at worst, I’d only lose $2K. Compared to the cost of one of these trips, that’s peanuts.
Insofar as Canon’s future on the xxD line, this could be IMO where there’s been some “3D” discussion traffic. What I’d be interested in:
1) Image Quality is Job #1. That means fewer megapixels, so be it.
(Afterall, I *didn’t* buy those cheaper products for a reason)
2) Better AF is Job #2…but not really at all behind #1.
(Something that will be good enough for birding)
3) Full Weather Sealing.
(Something that I won’t be afraid to take to Antarctica)
The above are the “must haves” for the wallet to open.
What’s below are merely “nice to haves” by comparison.
4) GPS-tagging-capable
(At a non-outrageous cost)
5) Not to have something stupid with batteries
6) Not to be stupid regarding price
7) Not to be stupid regarding lifecycle management/costs
FWIW, I do tend to agree that the “60D” name isn’t particularly likely: when a product line has lost its way, the general marketing trend shys away from perpetuating the name. You keep the tie back when the name is good…so when the name is bad, you change names. Thus, I’d not be at all surprised if this path becomes something like “3D”, or “7D”.
FWIW, I suggest the latter under the rationale that from a marketing standpoint, the higher the number, the further away from the “#1 Top Dog”, so if they want to slot a product between the 5Dmk2 and 50D, then: 5 > “its number goes here” > 50
-hh
If all Canon can come up with is a miserable 11-13 AF point update, they can forget about trying to win this market segment. They need at least ~ 20 AF points. Yes, the number of points is not essential, but somehow people always associate quantity with quality… no doubt about that.
And if Canon is serious about winning this market segment, they need a camera that must both match the image quality as well as the functionality of the D300. It’s as simple as that.
I’m sure they’re aware of all this since they have a comparison of the 50D against the competition in their recently released white paper. But the fact that they keep dragging their feet about this makes me wonder if they’re really committed or serious about this. The 30D/40D/50D are totally disappointing releases as compared to the D80/D90/D200/D300 in terms of functionality for price. I’m almost ready to jump ship, just waiting for the dark side to release an image-stabilized 17-55 f/2.8 lens. :)
I disagree with Gusto. The 40D is the exception in that line. It’s a great camera, at an excellent price. Methinks Ed’s comment about keeping it in the lineup for another year has a lot of merit. Maybe introduce a 45D as a refresh, adding HD movie and contrast detect AF in Live View.
But removing 1.3 from the 1D series?? Nooooo. 1.3 is a great compromise, especially for those of us in wildlife photography. Cropping a FF picture is not ideal, because you have less of a chance to nail focus when your subject is subjectively further away.
Regardless of what Canon decides to call the next iteration of the xxD line.
They are facing intense competition from all sides, including their own xxxD line. The problem with Canon is their obsoleted idea of product separation. If they insist of keeping that mentality, all I can say is good luck to their bottom line (not to mention market share).
Nikon have seen that wisdom since the D200, and they have reinforced their line with a hard to beat price/performance D300/D700/D3.
Yes, the xxD user don’t need all the 45 points AF… but we do need an Af that’s as fast and as accurate. Add to that, cross sensitive AF @ f5.6 (achived by 50D) but also reliable AF for f8 setups.
Increasing the sensor resolution without improving the AF accuracy tolerance is literally committing Hara-kiri to that product… since why would target market of xxD series want more MP if not to just be able to pixel peep more.
I for one would love to see a 1.3 sensor in the mid-range. If done well, it should provide improved noise performance over the 1.6, without competing against the FFs at the high-end. I think 15MP at a 1.3 would be a good middle ground.
I currently have an old 350D, and I’m curious about upgrading. I’ve looked at the 50D, and there just doesn’t seem to be much difference between that and the XTi. I know that there are lots of improvements, but it’s hard to sell myself on it when the next xxxD will probably match or exceed the sensor of the 50D. I’d love to have a 5Dmk2, but I just can’t justify it for my use.
I don’t care too much about the number of AF points…I’ve never wished my 350D had any more. Improved accuracy and performance would always be good, though.
Paul
The 40D is still a good camera but it does have some problems that the 50D did not improve on. The AF system still has trouble in fast moving action. As a sport photographer needing to shot at full FPS all the time to make up for the O.F.F.shots. For 6 shots at least 1-3 shots are bad. And the noise reduction wasn’t that much of an upgrade either. Only a half a stop improvement on the 50D over 1600 ISO. From 100-800 ISO, the 40D wins in noise reduction. Image quality was improve slightly above the D300 at 12 mp. The only reason I don’t like FF is because of the crop factor. 1.6 crop is perfect for sports photography. Glass is expensive to reach far and aps-c covers that. Where I use 200 to 300 primes instead of 300 to 500 with an FF.
“This could partially be because of the economy, but as we’ve seen from the 5D2, people are willing to spend”
How can you say this with any certainty? DO you know the sales figures for each? Success for the 5D2 may be based on selling 10% as many as constitutes success for the 50D. So the fact that a number of people – those that consider $2700 at least to be an acceptable price for a camera – were waiting to buy a product that was *three years* past release would seem to me to have no bearing on whether or not “people are willing to spend” at least with respect to the XXD line.
I’m pretty sure that APC will always remain. I don’t really see anyway around it at least in the near future. even when the new full fram cameras will cost $1000. you will still find a dirt cheap $300 for youngesters and third world. it may reach its way to compacts at the very least.
i for one hope that they will get either APS-H or FF into the xxD price category. A 12mpx FF sensor in a 50D-like body would be awesome… and to the person that said AF at F8 I say a big YES!!! It’s about time! The very people that end up using slower glass because its cheaper are the ones that would benefit from the F8 focusing… people who buy 1-series can afford the fast glass anyways. Nikon got this and put the more advanced focusing module on the D300 but Canon has been stalwart with their concept of product separation and at the moment its chocking their lineup
@jouster
Yes… I do. :)
Canon 10D, 20D, 30D, 40D, 50D …. 60D …… 70D …… xxD
STOP STOP STOP
Back, I want a new box Canon 10D Mark II.
Voila
Denis Says:
December 19th, 2008 at 12:55 am
I think they should have a low MP (12-15) FF in that price range. That would move like hot cakes! I think…
***********
I totally agree. I have been a Professional Canon user for years and really got into the buzz of the 5D MK2, but after prices solidified and issues cropped up I decided to cancel my 2 pre-orders. It just doesn’t feel like a wise investment at the moment, just like the 50D too. They both give me the feeling that they were knee-jerk reactions to the market and to the Nikon development cycle jumping ahead of them.
The 50D’s a joke. (for the money) They just put a bigger sensor in a 40D body, did nothing about improving noise levels or IQ, then charged us double. Ridiculous. Bit like putting a V8 in a Mini and doing nothing to the rest of the car!
The 5DMK2 I like the sound off…but again it just feels like they have rushed the development and turned what should have been the new 50D (albeit with a smaller sensor) into the MK2.
Rebel line & **D line & 1D* line – Keep it clear & simple.
Rebel – Partial sealing, 10-12MP, 1.6 crop sensor, 3-5 fps, current AF, EF & EFS lenses.
Improve the **D line – full weather sealing, 12-15MP Full Frame, 5-6 FPS with bigger buffer & no lock-out, slightly better (wider, please!) AF points, better noise reduction (and a higher dynamic range – perhaps an auto HDR option that takes 3 exposures and automatically merges them in camera). EF lenses only. Bigger view finder.
1D* range – the sky’s the limit!
As for movies- Couldn’t care less, but as long as it doesn’t get in the way of taking pictures, go for it.
Certainly the next development cycle for all manufacturers will have to be more about software, design, ergonomics and price rather than just more megapixels crammed into the same old body.
Just my 2p worth.
I hope in the next few cycles the line up will at least be segregated as follows…
Budget model (xxxxD)
1.6x / 3fps limit / any Af that can beat the panasonic G1 contrast AF / small and light body / max iso 3200
Entry model (xxxD)
1.6x / 5fps limit / similar AF to current 450D / small and light body / max iso 6400
Advance model (xxD)
1.3x / 5-8fps / striped down pro-af but maintain it’f full functionality and accuracy / max iso 12800
Advance FF model (xD)
>> it’s really a FF xxD / max iso 51000
Pro model (1D)
FF / 10 fps / CLS equivilant / High rez / In-cam cropping option / built-in sensor stabilization to compliment IS lens (activated only when shutter is released)/ pellicle mirror ala 1N(rs)…. anything goes in this model. ;)
@CRYN
Advance model (xxD)
1.3x / 5-8fps / striped down pro-af but maintain it’f full functionality and accuracy / max iso 12800
That Line up won’t work since Canon are dropping the APS-H sensor 1.3 x
I think your suggestion of Entry and Advanced models should be combined to a 1.6 crop ‘advanced’ body only, without limitation on ISO….ISO sensitivity should be available throughout the range, I think. Perhaps with the exception of the 1D range having an extra notch. Keep AF and frame rate as features and focus on improving signal to noise ratios…PLEASE!!
So Budget 1.6x, Advanced 1.6x, Advanced FF & Pro FF.
oh and Canon…I NEED a wide angle IS lens at 2.8 or faster!!!
@ Rod.
I understand that they might be dropping the 1.3x, but why drop away when they can drop it on the xxD series to really differentiate the product.
A 1.3x sensor can squeeze in 21MP and will beat any competitor’s offering in the class… isn’t that what everyone’s asking? more MP and better IQ?
lol, Canon Rumors, fair enough! I’m still not convinced though; I see the 5D2 market as far smaller, semi-pro and thus willing to drop nearly three times as much as the cost of a 50D. I’m having a hard time extrapolating anything about enthusiasts’ buying habits from that. Whatever.
I certainly have no issue with your list of possible future XXD features. In fact, my only problem there is that I can’t buy one yet.
When Canon 50D Mark II replaces 60D.
@ CYRN
“isn’t that what everyone’s asking? more MP and better IQ?”
From my personal experience as a pro-snapper, NO,NO,NO…No more MP please!! That’s the LAST thing we need in the 35mm format right now. If you want that much resolution then go Medium format back or give RED a call.
I’m sick of having to buy more and more external drives and having to update my screens and computers every 5 mins. Have you tried processing multiple RAWs and photo-shopping layers & filters on a standard dual core machine with 2 or 4GB RAM on a couple of 22″ monitors, It’s just grinds away! At this rate we’ll all need to be using 50″ HD plasma screens just to get 20% of the image on the screen at 100% :)
Better IQ – of course, but reduced image noise comes WAY above anything for me.
It’s the old Horse Power V handling argument all over again! I want 12-20MP (ish) exquisite, clean, sharp, smooth, vivid images that don’t require lots of tweaking in expensive software like CS4 to get the best from them. Not even bigger, noisy, softer, grainy flat images.
If anything, I wish I hadn’t sold my 5D ‘Classic’ since this camera produces the best images (albeit with heavy post) of any digi stills camera that I have ever used.
What the heck, i’m gonna buy one right now on fleebay!
Shame that they are so nasty to use in all other respects :)
But…each to their own…
I think this is all speculation and people talking. Right now people are not spending. The 5DM2 is only well received because it is the lowest price of the full frames and pros will buy that since it also has 21MP. The 50D is 15MP but it was also intro’d only 12-13 months after the 40D. Why? Because of that Nikon and SONY are doing with their more MP smaller sensor cameras. Competition. The 40D was 10MP, which although enough does not top the others.
I think they should have a super accurate AF.
Canon’s AF system always has problem with front and back focus.. My 40D doesn’t do any better then my 20D.
And they should also spend a lot more on QC. The current 5D2 black dot, 1D Mk3 AF, is killing canon and make all Canon user look stupid.
“- Canon is developing an AF system for the midrange cameras. They don’t feel the 60D buyer really needs 1D AF, which I tend to agree with. The user does deserve a better performing AF system than the Rebel user.”
Nikon disagrees. D300 exists and if I’m not mistaken it was a success. Don’t underestimate people’s wishes and necessities… Canon does that already and that’s why Nikon is getting a better share.
“Improve the **D line – full weather sealing, 12-15MP Full Frame, 5-6 FPS with bigger buffer & no lock-out, slightly better (wider, please!) AF points, better noise reduction (and a higher dynamic range – perhaps an auto HDR option that takes 3 exposures and automatically merges them in camera). EF lenses only. Bigger view finder”
I fully support the idea. I am not ready to invest in a 50D+prime EF-S lens but I would invest in such a 12-15MP FF body and in prime EF lenses. I don’t need the 5DII definition and sluggish AF (and price as it is now), I would rather go for a Canon equivalent to the D700. If nothing comes by end of 09 I’ll jump ship.