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Messages - preppyak

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586
* You think I'm crazy? In the first weeks, where it was really hard to find a 5D3 in stock, they sold on ebay for a big markup ($4000 body only). But now it can already be bought at a discount at reputable ebay sellers ($3220). I think the official price will follow in the coming weeks.

that's why I started this thread: http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?topic=6539.45
Yes, you are crazy, and for the same reasons people stated in that thread. Amazon USA's top seller list is one specific metric of many...and yet you are inferring everything from it. For one, a lot of the original pre-orders got cancelled at Amazon because B+H, Adorama, etc got stock before them. Cameras were shipping and people got mad that Amazon hadn't even gotten a shipment yet. You can find threads on this forum to that effect. So that would impact your numbers. Especially since the D800 has had universal stock issues, and I haven't read about a specific retailer getting orders dumped. That doesn't even factor in whether the target audiences would normally buy from Amazon.

Then lets go further. Amazon has one option for the D800, yet two for the 5dIII (body and kit). Today, the 5dIII body is 5th, the D800 is 6th, the 5dIII kit is 39th. Do you know what that means? No, because that only tells you relative numbers. Do pre-orders affect those rankings? Do they factor in cancelled orders? If I'm assuming answers like you, I'd assume the D800 got crushed today and I should expect to see it for $2800 in a few weeks. You're asking the 8-Ball for answers and assuming its all knowing.

At best, I think you'd see Canon admit prices are too high by doing a big body/lens combo rebate. Rather than taking $150 or $200 off, like they have for the APS-C cameras, you'd see $3-400 when you buy a lens with it. Even then, I wouldn't expect that until the end of summer.

587
EOS Bodies - For Stills / Re: When to get a used 5d2?
« on: June 18, 2012, 12:37:52 PM »
I'd definitely wait to see what happens after Canon does their inventory and puts the refurb cameras back in their store...it might affect prices on some things

As for your question on price, I'd say the cost of the 5dIII is what is keeping the 5dII market afloat. For full-time wedding pro's making really good money, they upgraded to the 5dIII right away for the improved AF and fps. But, for a lot of other users, the cost wasn't worth some of the upgrades. The 5dII was the only affordable full-frame from Canon, so everyone who wanted full-frame got it. Now there are two options, and the cheaper one is gonna be what a lot of people accept unless they need added features.

I don't think you'll see the price of the 5DII drop significantly unless Nikon releases the D600 very soon, or Canon releases a $2000ish 5dII replacement shortly

588
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon Rebel T4i Review With Video Samples
« on: June 15, 2012, 12:44:20 PM »
That's about what I expected for the auto-focus. Maybe the STM lenses will be smoother, but, the sample in that video is just a slightly improved version of the Nikon auto-focus. It certainly doesn't replace or come close to video camera AF

589
EOS Bodies / Re: Is the 5DIII the New 50D?
« on: June 15, 2012, 08:33:15 AM »
If the translucent mirror gives the A99 a frame rate approaching 10fps with 24mp at the rumored price of around $2500 - $2800, then the 5D Mark III becomes even harder to justify at $3499.
Well, the whole EVF v optical viewfinder is still kind of a big deal. I still haven't seen an EVF that makes the camera worth it...both between killing the battery life and making it hard to see in less than ideal conditions (things that matter to full frame users).

590
Lenses / Re: Recommendations for a fast sub-28mm lens for ~$1k?
« on: June 14, 2012, 06:22:21 PM »
For fast, wide and relatively cheap, the two contenders are Samyang 14mm f/2.8 and Tokina 11-16mm f/2.8.  Other options are either above 17mm, slower than f/2.8 or much more expensive
Yep, and both would work well for your purposes. The Tokina would give you more options, the Samyang would be cheaper. If those aren't fast enough, your only real Canon option is the 28mm f/1.8. Also, if the Tokina is too wide for your tastes, there is the older Canon 20-35mm f/2.8L that you can get for $4-500ish on Ebay, if not cheaper. But I think the 28mm f/1.8 would probably give you stronger image than that.

591
EOS Bodies - For Stills / Re: right time to turn pro...?
« on: June 14, 2012, 02:37:26 PM »
But it's not just about income. I made a disturbing realization that the more I was shooting for money, the more my hobby was dying. It has now been YEARS since I went out to take some pictures just for fun. It's not that I don't have time to do it - I just don't feel like it if you can believe that. And that thought saddens me, because I loved my hobby.
I had this same thing happen with my video work; I work as a video editor AND I was producing videos all weekend, and I just got burned out so quickly. It just occurred to me that I haven't done a video in my free time in 4-5 months now basically...which used to be unthinkable. Thankfully I've kept photography from becoming that, and while I did just shoot a friends wedding, I know its not something I want to do consistently for income.

Another good place to ask advice from wedding photographers is this forum: http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/board/48

They've been discussing a lot of the same things you asked, and you'd probably learn a lot of the business side from there. I agree with whoever said to become a 2nd shooter for someone; it takes a lot of the risk away from you, but it gives you invaluable experience. The other thing you need to do is stop doing free work; because it will get you branded as the guy who does his work for cheap. If you want to start doing photography full-time, you need to really decide what you'll need to charge, and if you can book clients at that price.

592
EOS Bodies - For Stills / Re: Some questions about 650D, Help me!!!
« on: June 14, 2012, 02:31:31 PM »
1, Do the 9 cross points have a big difference compare to 600d?
It depends what you are shooting. What it will help do is lock focus faster, and its useful for shots where things are moving (people, cars, animals, etc), since it has more points to differentiate what is what.

If you were using a 600D right now, you'd probably notice it gets focus correct a little more often; but it's not what I would call a big difference (the 600D v 7D or 5dIII AF would be a BIG difference). But, as features go, it's one of the more useful areas to have an upgrade in, since the AF is one of the biggest elements that decides whether or not you get the shot.

593
EOS Bodies / Re: Is the 5DIII the New 50D?
« on: June 14, 2012, 02:24:34 PM »
But the D600 is potentially a game changer - a FF camera for not much more than the high-end APS-C which an entry-level APS-C consumer might consider as an upgrade.
Yep, if the spec list for the D600 is even close to accurate (24mp, 39pt AF, 6fps...make 2 of those 3 correct and its crazy), and its priced at or below $2000, Canon will have to respond or lose a huge chunk of users. Because while I'd love full-frame, the 5dII lacks some of the things Id want for the occasional action/nature shooting I do. But, that's where my next body upgrade will be; into a full-frame with better AF, or into the 7dII with great specs...and the same is true for many other xxxD and xxD users. If the only option I have is to go up to a 5dIII, then I'd have to look elsewhere at some point

The D800 v 5dIII argument won't even cost Canon .1% of their market share, since its a relatively small base anyway. Being wrong about consumer (T4i, etc) and prosumer (60D/5dII) level cameras is where they lose percentages.

594
Couldn't Canon make a mirrorless camera with EF mount and a shorter flange distance?

Lenses for the mirrorless camera would not focus on other cameras with EF mount, so some special designation like EF-ML would be required, but regular EF & EF-S lenses would mount using an extension tube with contacts.
But why make it EF mount at all then, since an EF adapter is basically just an extension tube. I mean, look at the patent, it's an extension tube with electrical contacts



The only reason to make it EF mount would be so people could use EF lenses right away with no adapter...once you add anything between the lens and the camera, you might as well optimize it for the target market (in this case, small camera with small flange distance). If the EF-ML lenses don't work on DSLR's anyway, there is no reason to build them around an existing idea, especially if something completely new is simpler and smaller


595
Why not just get the new T4i????
Cause you can get the 60D cheaper, and because part of taking pictures is holding the camera. If you've held a Rebel and the 60D, you'll feel a huge difference.

596
Thanks for the help everyone!  I used to own an xsi but had to sell it.  I still consider myself a newbie to dslr's though.  Was contemplating the t4i but after a bit of research on the net and then playing with the 60d at best buy...the 60d just felt better compared to the rebels.  That 50mm f1.8 lens is nice...I like it and will order it also.  What other lens should I pick up?  Was gonna get the kit with the 18-200mm lens but not anymore.  Seems like the 18-135mm is a better choice so I might go with that.  Or I'll just pick up the body only and get whatever lens you all recommend.  I have about $1500 to start off with.
My suggestion, go to the Canon Loyalty program. A refurbished 60D body is $640+tax...and they also let you take 20% off one of their refurb lenses (except L glass). You could use that on one of the 50mm lenses (f/1.8 or f/1.4), or the 100mm Macro if you'd want that. The 18-135 can be had for $250ish on Ebay or Craigslist, usually a decent amount of people selling them out of their kit. You could probably get the 60D, 18-135, 50 f/1,8 and the macro all for your $1500 price point.

597
EOS Bodies / Re: 4 More DSLRs Coming in 2012? [CR2]
« on: June 13, 2012, 12:31:09 PM »
Interesting points, Dilbert but it still feels to me like a lot of work and cost to Canon to fill an awkward gap in the line up that perhaps doesn't really need filling... or at least may disappear in a year or so when the 5D3 price starts to drop or the 7D2 comes up from the rear.

Although the 5D2 is getting on a bit the IQ does still fits between the 7D and 5D3. Just my thoughts anyway and you're of course entitled to your own. I do however think compatibility with the latest accessories is a valid reason to end the line... or at least push out a firmware update.
Here's the thing...the cheaper the camera gets, the less the consumer will have researched little details, and the more they'll want the newest thing. They are also the lifeblood of companies, because hooking someone in at the entry level is how you get them upgrading and sticking with the company.

So, if Nikon releases a D600 with something pretty close to the reported specs at say $2000ish, then the 5dII market is gonna dry up fast. I can't imagine the person who would want a Ti level auto-focus over even the 7D autofocus, or a 4yr old sensor vs a brand new sensor. They'd want it even less if the cost is <$2000. And an entry-level full-frame is where you hook your high ticket buyers. You go full-frame, you start buying L glass...

The D800/5dIII thing won't affect Canon, but not having an answer to a D600 would.

598
EOS Bodies / Re: Will there be a 7d2 at all?
« on: June 12, 2012, 05:58:15 PM »
it may quickly turn into a losing strategy when next gen Nikons hammer Canon DSLRs also in video capabilities.
Good luck getting that to happen...gonna be awful tough for Nikon to make those cameras without the Sony sensor. And I can't see Sony being pumped about Nikon releasing an affordable killer video DLSR that cuts into the profits on their video cameras.

Have you seen the "uncompressed" video out from the D800? It looked pretty bad when people tried to post-process it.

Anyway, back on topic, I see a 7dII coming out next spring, and the sensor will reflect whatever the 70D gets (18mp, 22mp, etc). The AF will be an APS-C version of the 61pt AF (so probably 40ish), and the FPS will reflect what Dual Digic V can do (8-10fps). So, its a mix of incremental changes (passing down elements Canon already has), but I think many 7D users would be happy with the upgrades as a whole. Probably priced a little higher than the 7D is now, but still <$2k.

I think Canon remembers that their enthusiast market isn't as deep-pocketed as their pro's. And they also have less investment in their system, so making them mad loses them a customer base

599
EOS Bodies / Re: 4 More DSLRs Coming in 2012? [CR2]
« on: June 12, 2012, 05:49:06 PM »
How about a FF entry with no Video, you know to keep the price down, something for the purist photographers for a changeā€¦. 650D is good enough for those wanting to do video
they can disable the features sure.. but that would not safe them a cent (*).
it would only make the video models more expensive but not the crippled ones cheaper.

(*) ok a few cents maybe, for the mics as an example.
As was mentioned, you wouldn't save money that way. Simple supply and demand really. If 25% of users want video, than the non-video DSLR either has to be 25% cheaper to make (its firmware already designed and a few hardware parts, so, not likely), or they have to charge 25% more for it to break even. And so on if the percentage is higher than 25%. Oh, and as an owner, it'd probably be harder to re-sell to upgrade since your market would be smaller as well.

If memory serves me, there was a poll on this forum, and it wasn't until about the 30% cheaper price point that people were willing to give up video functions in their DSLR's. So, I'd say they probably aren't going away.

600
EOS Bodies / Re: 4 More DSLRs Coming in 2012? [CR2]
« on: June 12, 2012, 05:43:07 PM »
What about a boring old replacement for the 1100D? Not very sexy, but certainly possible, especially if it's in Q4
Probably too soon for that, the T3 is only a little over a year old. The XS went for nearly 3 years before getting replaced.

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