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1006
EOS Bodies / Re: 4 More DSLRs Coming in 2012? [CR2]
« on: June 13, 2012, 11:16:08 AM »
Four DSLRs are not hard to imagine:

7DII
70D
5DHD
Entry-Level Full Frame (Rebel FX?)

Canon seems to have a dilemma with the 60D. Its price and specs are too close to the t4i. The upgrade path is pretty clear: put the features of the 7D in a composite body with a swivel touchscreen and call it good. But, what does that do to the 7D? The body alone might be enough to protect the 7D for a few months, if the 70D gets the same 18mp sensor as the t4i. But, that's not a long term strategy.

I can see Canon deciding to release the 7DII and 70D in tandem. Both get a new sensor. 7DII is essentially a 5dIII with an APS-C sensor. 70D is as described above (7D features in 60D body)

5DHD (High Definition) is identical to the 5DIII (including price) but uses a 46mp sensor (essentially an 18mp APS-C sensor upsized). Canon has three years' experience with the 18mp sensor, so they can put what they've learned to work in a high-resolution 5D without risking any unpleasant surprises. As long as the sensor is the only difference between the bodies, production costs are minimal and there is little risk that one body cannibalizes the other. They just switch out sensors on the production line depending on which model they need the most of. You want low light, low noise -- buy the 5DIII. You want high definition -- buy the 5DHD. What does Canon care? They get your money either way.

That just leaves the "entry" level full frame. What that looks like will depend largely on what Nikon's comparable model looks like (if it materializes). I'm guessing something in a composite body, swivel touchscreen, scaled-down or recycled 5DII autofocus, SD card only, perhaps no micro-focus adjustment. If Nikon produces a more full-featured body, the specs may be improved to compete.

Pricing:

70D – Not sure. Needs to be above the t4i, but not too much above to encourage potential buyers to "step up."
7DII – $1,600 - $2,000
5DHD – $3,500
Rebel FX (full frame entry level camera) – $1,500 - $2,000) like the features, pricing may be determined by Nikon's offering.

I can hear the cries now: "You can't price the 7DII and a full frame Rebel so closely!"  Of course you can. Some people want the perceived advantages of the full frame, others want a fully-tricked out DSLR with a 1.6 crop factor. Both markets are sufficiently sophisticated to know what they want.

Oh... and one more thing: Canon is no doubt watching their 5DIII sales figures. If they decide the $500 difference between the 5DIII and the D800 is costing them sales (not sure it is), they may make a minor price adjustment (I'd guess around $200). They might then offer registered 5DIII customers a $200 rebate on any "L" lens as a loyalty reward. (Which, of course, also boosts lens sales)

Just remember. You heard it here first.

1007
EOS Bodies / Re: 4 More DSLRs Coming in 2012? [CR2]
« on: June 12, 2012, 07:18:42 PM »
Okay Canon Rumors Guy, time to be straight up with folks.

I assume the CR2 portion of the rumor is that there will be up to four new DSLR bodies announced in 2012.

Then, it appears the remainder of the post is simply repeating past speculation on what these might be. So, is it correct to give CR2 rating to the possibility of four new DSLRs but CR1 or less to the speculation about what they might be?

1008
EOS Bodies / Re: Starter Gear (newbie here)
« on: June 11, 2012, 11:37:45 PM »
Ebay is great, just make sure you do your research.  It's easy to end up paying almost as much for something used as it would cost new, and that's no bueno.  Make sure you know the value of what you are bidding on, so you can get a good deal. Don't forget the canon refurbished store either.

Yeah, I should have been more specific. I find eBay great for accessories like soft boxes, light stands, bags, etc. Things that people buy, use for awhile and then find they don't need or want. For actual camera gear, I agree the Canon refurbished store is usually a better deal if you are in the U.S. Also, if you are in school or planning to attend school, be sure and check out what the school has. I'm guessing that equipment like fluid head tripods, dollies, etc. may already be available for student use.

1009
EOS Bodies / Re: Starter Gear (newbie here)
« on: June 11, 2012, 10:03:31 PM »
Slow down a bit here.

I'd strongly suggest you start with the T4i and the 18-135 STM lens. Get a UV filter for it, cards and batteries. Spend a week or two playing with those and decide then what else you need. Since you are a film student, your priorities may be far different from some of the advice you may be getting from still photographers on this forum.

See if the T4i and 18-135 STM lens really deliver on Canon's promise that it offers stabilized shooting in video mode. Play with the camera a bit and decide then what kind of rig you need. Figure out if you need a Hoodman or similar device for viewing the screen. Decide if you need an external microphone, etc. etc.

Unless you are rich, your budget is limited and the possibilities are endless. People on this forum are always ready to help you spend your money, but there will be plenty of time to do that. After the camera, lens, filter, batteries and cards, check out eBay before buying anything else new.

1010
EOS Bodies / Re: APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction
« on: June 11, 2012, 01:33:57 PM »
Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about.  This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

1011
EOS Bodies / Re: APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction
« on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:17 AM »
Not bad, although missing the sensor is kind of a biggie.

Based on the T4i, I'd say both the 70D and 7D will get touch screen controls and continuous autofocus in movie mode. Not sure about the flip screen for the 7D. Canon may reserve that for consumer-level cameras.

The big question in my mind is whether or not the 7D and 70D will share the same sensor. I'm guessing at least one new sensor, but it's possible we could see two. A 22-24 mp monster in the 70D and 18-20 mp with improved performance in the 7D.

I think your pricing on the 70D may be close, but contrary to conventional wisdom on this forum, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7D come in at about $1,800.

1012
EOS Bodies / Re: The Last Flagship DSLRs
« on: June 10, 2012, 10:29:13 PM »
I think you may be a generation or two premature.

Eventually, DSLRs may be replaced by something better, but I think the alternative technology will have to mature first for that to happen.

I do agree with Mt. Spokane, I don't see mirrorless being the replacement. They seem more like FrankenCameras to me: cobbled together from today's technology in an attempt to create something new, but not really doing anything better than existing cameras. They remind me of Instamatics or, at best, Polaroids. Polaroid being an interesting technology that had some good commercial and artistic uses, but never really challenged mainstream cameras.

The only mirrorless I find remotely interesting are the Fuji X series and they are more of a "back to the future" technology rather than cutting edge new.

Still, I agree with some of your basic premise, but I tend to come at it from a different perspective.

I agree that as DSLR technology matures, the improvements from one generation to another become ever more incremental. In addition, I suspect the development cycle will increase, simply because there won't be rapid and significant breakthroughs. The current 7D is almost three years old now. Compare the development cycle between the 40D, 50D and the 7D. The 40D came out in 2007; the 50D in 2008 and the 7D in 2009.

It is almost three years later and the 7D is still very competitive and compares favorably to any other APS-C camera in the market. It's entirely possible that the 7DII and the 5DIII could each have a shelf life of four to five years. The 7DIII and the 5DIV? Maybe five to seven years.

This is not just a function of DSLR technology maturing, though. It is also a function of diminishing returns. The lowest cost Rebels now meet 90% or more of most photographers needs. The 7D and 5DII probably pushed that to about 95%. The 5DIII and 7DII, maybe 98%.  As anyone knows, meeting those final numbers gets tremendously expensive, requires significantly more time in development, and is only marginally important to most customers.

I'm old enough to remember that when the F1 came out, Canon actually promised they would NOT make changes for a decade. (That was a selling point then because professionals wanted that predictability.)

It's premature to predict the "death" of the DSLR. But the dizzying rate of replacement we've grown accustomed to in the last decade may be dying.

1013
EOS Bodies / Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« on: June 10, 2012, 01:55:44 PM »
I think Canon is at a crossroads, but it's not the crossroads you imagine.

If you read their announcements for these new lenses and the T4i, it's pretty clear these lenses are targeted to video.

Quote
To leverage the unique, new shooting functions of the EOS Rebel T4i, such as EOS Full HD Movie with continuous AF, Canon is introducing two new unique lenses, the new EF-S 18-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS STM lens and new EF 40mm f/2.8 STM lens. Both new STM lenses include Canon’s new Stepping Motor technology, which allows the lenses to smoothly and silently focus, and when used in combination with Canon’s new EOS Rebel T4i Movie Servo AF feature, achieve continuous AF while recording video. The new stepping motor technology in both lenses quietly focuses allowing the EOS Rebel T4i’s stereo microphone to only record the sounds of the scene being shot.

...Appearing for the first time in a Canon EF lens is Dynamic IS (Movie Shooting Mode only) that uses a wide image stabilization correction range to help ensure steady video even when shooting while walking.

Canon has heavily invested in the video DSLR market over the past year. Clearly they see that as a critical component of their sales strategy and they are going after everything from the amateurs trying to capture their little darlings' first steps, all the way up to full scale Hollywood productions.

And, frankly, it's working for them. Canon pretty much currently owns the video DSLR market and I think they intend to hold on to it.

1014
EOS Bodies / Re: Will there be a 7d2 at all?
« on: June 10, 2012, 11:02:04 AM »
It'll get a new AF system so the 19-pt system can go to the 70D. It'll get a higher MP sensor. Some might call those 'killer' but I call them incremental.

Pretty much agree, although given Canon's recent emphasis on ISO over pixels, I could see them keeping the sensor at 18-20 mp and improving the ISO performance slightly. We might see some improvement in weather sealing. I expect a touch-screen on the back but not necessarily a swivel-screen. Maybe live focus in movie mode, like the T4i (Gotta sell more of those new lenses).

Honestly, that's probably enough for me to upgrade as I'd like to have a second body anyway and I'm not at all interested in full frame.

1015
EOS Bodies / Re: Lower Price Full Frame Camera [CR1]
« on: June 10, 2012, 10:51:30 AM »
Quote
Similarly - continuing the production of the 5d mkII may not be cheaper for Canon than producing a new cut down version of the 5d mkIII. In fact if they stopped manufacturing mkIIs and released another camera that used the same sensor as the mkIII but with other features removed - they would probably see large savings compared to having to continue to have two separate production lines for sensors.

Same with processors, I suspect. Rather than continue to produce the old processor and old sensor, it's probably cheaper to put the new ones in a different body. I suspect a "budget" full frame camera would have a composite body, scaled down autofocus, SD Card only, slower frame rate, etc.

1016
Ha! Distant star you are right. Darn autocorrect, typing too fast and late night got to me.

1017
All this macho fighting over the trees, without seeing the forest.

The significance here is the convergence of quality between APS-C and full frame. The objective differences get smaller and smaller with each new generation. It doesn't matter if Nikon or Canon has a slight edge this month, the long march is toward indistinguishable differences in quality between two different size sensors.

1018
Canon just produced a major firmware upgrade for their "flagship APS-C format DSLR" (Their words, not mine) and people are imagining that they are going to a) merge this with an inferior model or b) change to a sensor size that they've abandoned.

These aren't mere dreams, they are full-on drug-induced, hallucinogenic fantasies.

Um, didn't Canon just do this with the 1DX? ???  They took the flagship IDs line and the inferior ID line and merged them together to make one of the most advanced DSLR's ever made. Hmmm... I very clearly see them doing this with the XXD line and the 7D line.

Um, no they didn't do that.They dropped an obsolete technology and merged the models into the flagship full frame. You would have a point if they had dropped the full frame flagship and kept the cheaper APS-H, but they didn't. They upgraded the more expensive model and gave it a new letter.

1019
They are going to introduce a 7D2...could also suggest that it may be APS-H...

Reaching out a hand to shake your shoulder and wake you up from the dream...   ::)

Thank God somebody has some sense here.

Canon just produced a major firmware upgrade for their "flagship APS-C format DSLR" (Their words, not mine) and people are imagining that they are going to a) merge this with an inferior model or b) change to a sensor size that they've abandoned.

These aren't mere dreams, they are full-on drug-induced, hallucinogenic fantasies.

The 70D will get the autofocus and most other characteristics of the 7D (except the alloy body). It will go up to about $1,300-$1,400 U.S. Close enough to the T4i to enable retailers to upsale potential customers. (Once a buyer crosses the physiological threshold of $1,000, it's pretty easy to get them to pop for a few hundred dollars more.)

That still leaves lots of room for a 7DII, which will get a new sensor, higher frame rate, enhanced autofocus, enhanced weathersealing and whatever else Canon decides to cram into it (driven by their targeted price point.) Pricing will be anywhere from $1,700 to $2,400 depending on features.

If it's under $2,000, we could see a 7Dx with an integrated grip and full weathersealing. (Professional sports/wildlife camera to replace the APS-H 1D. They can sell the pro-level for anywhere from $2,000 to $3,000 depending on how they target and market it.

Bottom line, Canon has at least $1,000 to $1,500 in headroom between the top Rebel and the flagship APS-C 7DII. That's plenty of room for a 70D and maybe even something else.

This fixation with an arbitrary numbering nomenclature as though it has to follow certain imaginary rules is just weird.

1020
I see this as very good news for the future of a 7DII. I seriously doubt Canon would be upgrading the 7D firmware and referring to it as its "flagship APS-C sensor" camera if they were planning to kill it off in a few months.

It also shows a commitment to their flagship model customers that, frankly, I appreciate. Yes, it makes good business sense for them to do this, but as long as I benefit, I'm not complaining.

On the downside, I do wonder if this means no 7DII by Photokina. But, I wouldn't say that for certain. If they continue the tradition of passing down the flagship sensor to lower level models it seems like they'll have to upgrade the sensor soon. Should be an interesting next few months.

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