« on: August 01, 2014, 06:42:34 PM »
Long time lurker, first time post!
To go back on topic a bit to Photokina... no one thinks a new 6d is going to come out right? I'm thinking about forking out for it but I have a tendency to buy things before new versions are just released.
I know it was only released 2 years ago and most of the talk is about the 7d MKII, but has Canon ever been able to pull off a complete upset/surprise, aka no one saw it coming?
Just for the record, I don't want to wait for Photokina because I'm going on a backpacking trip in two weeks so I was hoping to have it for that if I can manage!
Welcome, and fair question. I'd say the odds for a new 6D / 'entry'-level FF rig are very, very low:
- Though never a certainty, Canon's full frame life-cycle/refresh timing has been running about 4 years or so based on 5D and 1Ds/1DX timing (see handy timeline from Northlight), so the 6D is only about halfway to a refresh. That's for staying 'in-family' with a refresh. Canon, could, conceivably launch a new brand/trim-level of FF camera out of the blue, but the odds of that are astronomically low based on zero chatter whatsoever about that and high stock levels of their current FF bodies.
- The 6D has been well-received (despite some features being somewhat nerfed compared to the 5D3), so there isn't a need to pull a 'Nikon D610' quick update to solve a major issue.
- If only one non-Rebel body is released at Photokina, everything points to the 7D2 being the one -- see the timeline again (hint: ancient), read about limited stock levels, see all the clearance deals, etc.
So my guess of a new FF body of ANY kind (a 6D, a 5D4, a mythical 0D Mark 12, etc.) is not happening at Photokina.