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Messages - moreorless

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481
EOS Bodies / Re: what the 1Dx may tell us about the 5Diii
« on: October 29, 2011, 09:09:28 AM »
The full frame camera market is in an interesting state of flux at the moment.  As I see it, Canon have five options for the 5D MkII replacement:

1) Keep the major specifications the same as the 5D MkII and use the 18MP unit from the 1D X.
I’m not sure that you could sell such a camera on the basis of better high ISO performance alone; thus Canon would have to reduce the price.   This could work if:
a)   they can realise production synergies with the 1D X and other models to reduce the cost of making the camera (thus maintaining their profit margin)
Or
b)   they can realise a price point where they can sell enough extra units to compensate for the lower profit margin. 

2) Improve the major specifications over the 5D MkII and use the 18MP unit from the 1D X.  Differentiate from the 1D X based upon frame rate/buffer size, body size and viewfinder (+ probably a few other ‘pro’ orientated features such as Ethernet). 
i.e. the D700 strategy.  There are two dangers here:
i) Cannibalising 1D X sales in the same way that the D700 did to sales of the D3. 
ii) Alienating the section of the market of 5D MkII buyers who value resolution over build quality, AF and shooting speed. 

3) Take the 5D MkII and put a newly developed (for example) 36MP sensor in it. 
Problem: Nikon takes a D700 and puts a  36MP sensor in it; Sony builds a 36MP A9X based on their A77’s features: the 5D MkIII looks like the poor relation. 

4) Create a (for example) 36MP small body camera with improved AF, build quality and reasonable (4-6fps) shooting speed but keep the price near that of the 5D MkII. 
Problems:
a)   You’ve basically just built a 1D Xs and are only charging 5d MkII money for it!
b)   â€œI’ve just bought a 1D X and now I feel ripped off”


5) Create a 36-40MP body and improve some of the specifications over the 5D MkII, compromising others. 
Problems:
a)   It may be OK against the Sony, but might still look weak against the Nikon (so the price must be lower than the latter?). 
b)   People would always be speculating that the 1D Xs is on the way. 

If this looks like an awkward situation for Canon, bear in mind that Nikon are in the same boat.  In some ways it may be worse for them, as there would be uproar if they dropped any of the major specifications of the D700 for the D800. 

Sony’s strategy will only work if they can persuade full frame users of the benefits of the SLT concept and there’s not much evidence so far that they’ve persuaded the APS-C market yet.  Otherwise, they risk simply being the third choice brand all over again.

The real problem I see Canon having is that compaired to the 5D mk2 the market seems to have extended both upwards and downwards, with no 1Ds you have high end users after more megapixels and with the lower prices of the mk2 being so popular you now have a much larger cheaper market.

Balancing both of those with a single body seems like its going to be very difficult which makes me think there might be something to the rumours of a spilt in the 5D line. If they can produce a cost effective $2000ish FF body then the specs of the D800 become much less relivant at double the price. Then a high megapixel body could be targeted much more closely at its users likely needs, MP, Viewfinder and Buiid over FPS, high ISO and AF.

482
EOS Bodies / Re: 5Diii vs 7Dii (FF vs APS-C)
« on: October 29, 2011, 01:51:17 AM »
Partially agree. I too like the idea of keeping the next 7D at or about the same megapixels and focusing on improved image quality. In fact, I think that may be an excellent way to differentiate the 7D from the 60D and Rebels (they get the high density sensors and the 7D keeps the same megapixels, but with improved IQ -- very similar to what people expect with 1DX and 5DIII.

Interesting idea although as I said I'd say that for most xxxD and xxD users ISO is probabley more important than megapixels past 18. Few of these users are going to be making prints large enough to really see a difference in 21-24 MP and many of them arent going to be doing any post processing clearly up noise.

If theres a clear divergence between Canon and the rest of the field using Sony sensors then ISO performance could well become a larger issue for the more casual market.

Quote
I disagree though, that it would put the 7D in competition with the 1DX. Rather, I see them as being complementary. Buy the 1DX for full-on full-frame, tank-like durability and highest quality images, buy the 7D to add extra reach when you need it.

Instead, I wonder if it would cause the 7D to erode 5D sales, especially if the 5D goes up to 30+ megapixels. 

Don't know. Just speculating.

I doubt Canon would worry too much about the 7D eroading 5D sales though since both bodies are in a similar price bracket, personally I wouldnt be supprized if the 7D and xxD lines were pushed up market a little this time round aswell.

483
Lenses / Re: Realistic wish lens
« on: October 29, 2011, 01:29:07 AM »
A normal zoom that goes wider than 24mm would be useful as a walkaround landscale lens, something like say a 20-70 f/4 IS.  Personally I find that longer tele and more extreme UWA are things I stop and take my time with so a lens change is less of an incovenience but pushing into the upper end of UWA is something I do quite often when taking quick shots.

Maybe the start of a linked up system of landscape lenses? 12-20 f/4, 20-70 f/4 IS, 70-200 f/4 IS

484
EOS Bodies / Re: 5Diii vs 7Dii (FF vs APS-C)
« on: October 28, 2011, 08:00:41 AM »
Same for the 7DII - no one's talking much about that one, but it will probably not improve too much on the 7D.  My guess would be more MP (21-24), maybe the articulating display, same basic AF, Digic V (likely x2), new metering sensor (which will contribute to AF, so that will be the AF improvement), and that's likely it. 

Instead, let's compare real cameras - 5DII to 7D.  I think Fleetie summed up the main advantages and disadvantages.  For me, the 1.3-stop better ISO noise performance is the key - on the 7D, ISO 1600 is barely tolerable, on the 5DII, ISO 3200 is decent.

To me the move that would make the most sense is keeping the 7D mk2 at 18 megapixels and focusing on ISO while the 5D mk3 pushes megapixels.

Yes it would mean Canon would give ground to Sony and Nikon on MP in the crop market but ISO performance seems to the suit the 7D much better than pure resolution(indeed the crop market generally). It also sends a clear(and honiest) message "if you want high megapixels in good quality move to FF" thus potentially encouraging more crop users to upgrade.

Plus of course a high megapixel 5D mk3 will likely have inferior ISO and FPS performance compaired to the 1DX those cutting down the risk of losing sales on the latter. It would put the 7D somewhat into competision with the 1DX but I don't see that being as dangerous as having two FF bodies with specs that overlap.

485
EOS Bodies / Re: what the 1Dx may tell us about the 5Diii
« on: October 28, 2011, 02:00:18 AM »
I think the biggest clue is the announcement is scheduled in Hollywood...  i.e. very video orientated...

I wouldnt say a 5D annouced in hollywood would necessarily be pushed towards video at the expense of other areas. Obviously the video aspect would be hyped up but really hollywood isnt any worse than anywhere else to hype a stills camera aswell.

One feature I'd hope moves down the line quickly is the 1DX's larger back screen.

486
EOS Bodies / Re: what the 1Dx may tell us about the 5Diii
« on: October 26, 2011, 04:07:44 PM »
or maybe perhaps Canon will repackage the 1Dx sensor in a body like the 60D, not have a frame rate more than 5 per second, and the 7D's AF system. A body like this for $2k would be great.

I could certainly see Canon doing that if they used the 1DX sensor in an entry level body, give it decent build but low enough that pro's won't trust it.

Theres been alot of talk that we could see both that kind of FF body and a higher end high megapixel one.

487
EOS Bodies / Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« on: October 26, 2011, 03:50:28 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P

The 5D line does of course have some connection with hollywood though so both the high end videocam and it being annouced at the same time might not be impossible.

488
EOS Bodies / Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« on: October 26, 2011, 03:47:32 PM »
Totally different markets?  I doubt that.  They'd have to nerf the 5dmrkiii pretty bad for it not to cannibalize any 1DX sales.  I agree with neuroanatomist when he says that "time" is a good way to differentiate the two. Plus the mrkii is still selling well. So for all of the reasons mentioned, the probability of getting your hands on a 5Diii within a year is very low.

If Canon don't release any other FF camera in the near future the 1DX will obviously benefit as some may buy it even if its features don't totally suit them but I don't see that as "cannibalizing" 1DX sales if they release something more suitable for those users.

The markets just seem far more different than the 1Ds mk3/ and 5D mk2, there you had two bodies sold on MP first with the higher end one also giving some of the 1D functionality(decent FPS, high end AF, high end double grip build).  Not everyone may have been happy with the 5D's AF and build but equally the 1Ds mk3's AF and build/size plus the prenuim they came at was probabley overkill.

Quote
But for the sake of discussion, say they did want to differentiate it with fps. Would people be happy with 36MP at 2fps(slower than its predecessor)?

The 1DX processor seems to hint that 3 FPS for 36 megapixels which would I'd guess keep most users happy and make sure it stayed well away from the 1DX.

If your getting below 3 FPS then I'd say that would depend on the cameras market, if its the only FF body besides the 1DX  thats perhaps too low but if theres also a lower megapixel 5D sized body with higher FPS then the ultra high megapixel body would I'd guess be mainly selling to the landscape/studio market were FPS isnt that important.

489
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 7D mrk. II
« on: October 25, 2011, 06:43:47 AM »
I know people are getting excited with all the upgrade they in the 7d mark ii, but if all this update come true, high mp, high fps, better af(which is already is), better build quality(which is already is), weather sealed(which is already is), amazing high iso performance, faster cpu speed, wifi or gps(why do we need this again?) and many other things that are common in the wish list. All of these thing will cost alot. Dont dreaming on to get all of this and just want to pay $1500 for it. You want better iso performance, higher mp this and that but are not willing to pay. That would be ridiculous. So please make some logical analysis before making your wishlist.

Unless 7d will beome the next 1d, i dont think there will be a lot of improvement. If 7d will become the next 7d ie a camera targeted to the professional wildlife and action photography who need extra reach than the ff then i believe a lot of improvement will be done to the 7d but it will cost a lot more than you pay now.

I wouldnt be that supprized if Canon did indeed shift the 7D up in the market a little to closer to $2000. There is as you say a gap created by the 1DX shifting up in price and losing the crop and also the xxD line has been in no mans land a little. If you shift the 70D up market slightly then perhaps it could get the build quality back that seemed to turn off many prospective users with the 60D.

490
EOS Bodies / Re: Does 1DX mean Canon is reshuffling their pro lineup?
« on: October 25, 2011, 06:32:37 AM »
Unfortunately, I think neuro is right... there is a very slim chance that Canon will improve the AF in the 7D after only one generation.

Were talking one pro generation though and the 7D by its very nature seems to me to be a line that is likely to need something new to sell it. Alot of the hype was afterall based on it bringing a host of new features to the crop market and if Canon is going to look to maintain that they I'd guess something more than a small MP/ISO boost maybe needed.

491
EOS Bodies / Re: Does 1DX mean Canon is reshuffling their pro lineup?
« on: October 24, 2011, 12:06:02 PM »
3D - 30-40 megapixels, 7D AF, 3-4 FPS, 100% viewfinder, pro build/sealing. - $3500-4000

5D mk3 - 18 megapixels, 7D AF, 5-6 FPS, less than 100% viewfinder, current build - $2000-2500

FPS and AF seem the most obvious ways to differentiate a high megapixel body from the 1DX to me.

You're right, the main differentiators will likely be fps and AF.  The thing is, the 7D AF is the best Canon AF outside of the 1-series.  So, for another FF camera to have the 7D AF would not be a real differentiator.  Now, maybe it would...if you really mean the actual 7D AF, i.e. an APS-C-sized AF sensor - that would have the same top/bottom spread as the AF in the 5DII, and a slightly reduced side-to-side spread.   

But, I'm pretty sure that you mean the 7D's AF system upscaled to match the FF sensor, meaning even though it only has 19 points, it would covers the same horizontal spread as the 1D X and would even have a slightly larger vertical spread, i.e. much better coverage than the 5DII.  The 7D's AF is good enough that Canon borrowed many of those features for the 1D X.  They're not going to put an AF that good in a FF body outside of the 1-series, because then they'd be differentiating primarily on fps, and that's not enough.

Consider where the 5D/5DII's AF is positioned in the lineup - it's based on the 20D's AF and thus most similar to the AF system currently in the Rebel/xxxD line (9 points, only one cross-type).  I'm ignoring the 6 invisible points on the 5D, since those are intended to help with AI Servo tracking, and while maybe they do help, tracking a moving subject is clearly not the 5DII's forte).  In overall performance, the 5DII's Af is a step below the xxD AF.  I think a sub-1-series FF will keep the same relative position.  It seems likely that the xxD AF will get a bump - it's been used in three bodies (40D through 60D).  So, Canon enhances the xxD AF slightly (say, 15 points and better tracking), gives 9 cross type points to the xxxD/Rebel line but none of the sophisticated tracking (and that addresses how they can release a new xxxD in early 2012 with the same 18 MP APS-C sensor), and the next FF gets the FF-sized version of that, with no broader spread of points than is currently in the 5DII.

I agree Canon are likely to keep the 7D line's AF above the 3D/5D/6D but they could equally deside to shift both lines AF upwards.

I wouldnt be supprized if the 7D line generally was pushed up market a little to pickup any 1D users who need the crop and persuade existing users to upgrade. Canon's crop lineup is afterall pretty crowded and a bit more space between each body might help.

492
EOS Bodies / Re: Does 1DX mean Canon is reshuffling their pro lineup?
« on: October 24, 2011, 07:39:39 AM »
@moreorless : now this is going to make choices really interesting. I can see current 5D2 users wanting to jump to "your" 3D and first-time-FF users taking your 5D3 prediction. I consider this very business oriented and logical
+1

I think it makes sense for canon to build a high MP FF camera, decrease the frame rate and build quality, and decrease high ISO performance and DR.  But then throw a $4,500 price tag on it.

Then, an entry level FF that looks very much like the current 5DII except with perhaps a slightly larger sensor, slightly better AF, and improvements in high ISO and DR.....Perhaps with a decrease in build quality (if 6D).  This would likely fit the $2,500-$3,000 price range.

In terms of names, I can see a 3D/5DIII combo or a 5DIII/6D combo. 

As has been said above, the 7DII is easier as it is APS-C.  I hope that it has better ISO performance and better DR.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it is more MP/AF instead.

FPS and AF seem the most obvious ways to differentiate a high megapixel body from the 1DX to me. If the target market is landscape and studio users then are big upgrades to those areas compaired to the 5D mk2 really needed? AF perhaps a bit(more accuracey than speed) but 3 FPS seems like it would be enough for most people.

Personally as an amature landscape shooter who might be in the market for a FF body in the next year the things I'd be after are maximum megapixels that can still keep lower ISO(say 400-800) clean and a fully sealed body that doesnt weigh much more than 800-900g.

493
EOS Bodies / Re: Does 1DX mean Canon is reshuffling their pro lineup?
« on: October 24, 2011, 07:26:23 AM »
@moreorless : now this is going to make choices really interesting. I can see current 5D2 users wanting to jump to "your" 3D and first-time-FF users taking your 5D3 prediction. I consider this very business oriented and logical

My feeling is that an entry level FF body would really be the way to gain an advanatge, Canon, Nikon and Sony have all seen that high megapixels in a smaller body sells with the 5D mk2 and I'd be supprized if they didnt go after that market this time around. The smarter business move would I'd say be to realise that the strong sales of the 5D mk2 at a lower price point have hilighted theres a market for a $2000ish FF body. If big megapixel bodies are all we see with the lower end FF market this time round there launch prices are likely to be $3000+ which could price many potential buyers out.

That could actually be more important than who gets the very best spec high megapixel body, if say Canon only has 32 MP and lesser AF than Nikon are many current 5D mk2 users going to switch? probabley not with the investment in lenses. The more important battleground would be getting users locked into a system and if Canon are the only people with an entry level body thats a definate advanatge to them since crop upgrades cannot be depended on with many users having to sell EF-S/DX lenses anyway.

494
EOS Bodies / Re: Does 1DX mean Canon is reshuffling their pro lineup?
« on: October 24, 2011, 03:11:01 AM »
I did say 'effectively' medium format...I was thinking more about pixel count rather than full medium format. I know pixel count doesn't in any way define medium format...but if Canon are to produce a Camera that competes for the next three years in the studio...it would seem to me that it would have to be in the 40 to 50 MP range...similar pixel counts to some of the leaf backs and Pentax 645D. But I also realise that this asks the question - are the current optics capable of supporting that sort of resolution? I don't believe that they are.

Could Canon cope with producing a new lens mount alongside the EF? Probably not at the moment. But I cannot believe that Canon are going to give up the prestige of producing a large pixel count camera to their rivals. Both Nikon and Sony are ahead in the raw numbers game...I'm sure Canon will respond in kind.

It has often been rumoured that Canon believe there more recent lenses can handle 40-50 MP and there performance on crop bodies does seem to suggest they've got a good deal more to offer on FF beyond 21 MP.

The real unknown to me seems likely to be whether were talking about one new 5D sized FF body or two, Personally I think that with the 1DX specs/price two has become much more likely since a single body would have to cover alot of ground between amatures moving up to FF to 1Ds users moving down for more megapixels.

Something like...

3D - 30-40 megapixels, 7D AF, 3-4 FPS, 100% viewfinder, pro build/sealing. - $3500-4000

5D mk3 - 18 megapixels, 7D AF, 5-6 FPS, less than 100% viewfinder, current build - $2000-2500

495
EOS Bodies / Re: What's Next?
« on: October 24, 2011, 01:26:32 AM »
I don't think the 5D3 will be split into two different models.

Splitting it up increases the risk of both models where consumers may not be satisfied with both and even if they are satisfied with one of the models, there can be a big loss financially on the second if it doesn't satisfy the market. It also creates confusion in market, which model would be suitable. Eg. Someone who primarily wants photo use but also needs good video usage, which one would they buy if the 5D series is split up.

Canon make their money on a model that repeatedly gets purchased time and time again over its life span. Eg. 5D2 has been one of the best selling cameras of all time. Canon have had this camera on the production line time and time again.

I think Canon should make their necessary changes such as MP increase, ST-E2 transmitter, AF focus points, Digic 5+, 3.2" clear view II screen, increased weather sealing etc.

With these changes, the 5D3 will sell itself.

The problem is though your potentially looking at a much more expensive camera with those changes, ok for the higher end of the market such as former 1Ds users but it wouldnt cater to the market the 5D mk2 selling at around $2000 has tapped into.

Spilting lines based on features might not be ideal but if Canon have say a high MP 3D with those specs in the $3500 range and a lower end 5D mk3 with say the 18 MP sensor and maybe improved AF for around $2000 then they potentially tap into both those markets. They could also open up a market for users upgrading though the lines which I'd guess at the moment is largely confined to people buying used 5D mk1's first.

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I agree...  with all the cropped bodies having the same sensor, it seems crazy to me for them to announce a xxxD (as seems to be the annual trend, although that might change), before a 70D or 7Dmkii. I would guess a lot of new bodies to stabalise the whole lineup in the next 12-18 months!

One possible direction they could take is introducing the new processor into the D650 next spring while keeping everything else the same then market it on high FPS.

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