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Messages - moreorless

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Lenses / Re: The New Canon EF-S 24mm f/2.8 STM Pancake
« on: September 11, 2014, 10:25:17 AM »
Would make for a good SL1/SL2 kit lens.

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D750 to be Canon 5D3 competitor?
« on: September 11, 2014, 03:54:16 AM »
The issue you need to look at I'd say is the market position prior to the most recent generation of DSLR's, at that stage I'd argue Canon was in a more dominant position and without the present advantages that Nikon offers would have become more dominant still.

I would actually argue that besides competition from phones a lot of the reason why the compact market was in trouble was because competition had driven prices for basic compacts so low that profit margins were limited even if sales were high. You look back 15 years and pretty basic compacts by todays standards were selling for $400+.

The big mistake that I think was made in the compact market that left it open to phones was IMHO sticking to relatively small sensors for too long, even high end compacts were stuck with 1/1.7' sensors for god knows how many years. Sticking with smaller sensors did mean that zoom ranges could increase but I'd argue that for the majority a 24-100mmish range is really all they need. Increasing sensor size sooner would have gotten more people used to higher quality phones would struggle to equal.

The future is I'd guess a move towards larger sensored more expensive compacts but I think its now much more of an uphill struggle as your having to user users back.

The Amazon metrics do not have any real basis as the driver is really new camera releases, which Canon for the most part has been limited in the last few years at the top end of their lines which is where Canon really drives sales - i.e. 1Dx, 5D MKIII, 7D.  Yes there has been 6D, 60D, 70D, t5i, etc... and say with the 70D, I think a lot of that has been for video, but again, what I see as a general formula is

New top body = sales (X) +.5x Prior Body Upgrade.

As an example, when the 810 came out I saw a ton of 800s for sale, just as there were a ton of 5D MK IIs for sale, when the 5D MK III came out.

Even though a lot of people have moved on from the 7D, a lot of people have held on or maybe gone a bridge model, but if Canon releases a decent replacement, you can expect to see not only a lot of sales of that camera, but a lot of 7Ds as well. 

Amazon also tends to be more of a consumer market than a Pro / Prosumer - as a point of reference, no 1Dx of D4  D4s D3 D3x in the top 100.

A good point, Canon's path of less frequent upgrades likely means sales get compressed into smaller time frames. In the last 12 months Nikon have released the D4s, D810, D610, Df, D7100, D5300, D3300, V3, J4 and S2 where as Canon have only released the 70D, 1200D and M2.

The production delays for the 70D sensor are I'd guess a big factor here, in the next 12 months we'll likely see a 7D mk2, a Rebel and 1-2 M bodies with that sensor or something similar plus potentially FF updates as well.

I want a 50MP camera and the 55mm and 85mm Zeiss Otus as kit lenses. :D

And why not 50MP?

Some peeps who are serious about big prints will sure love a small camera with MF quality. They will pay the price for the best glass. The more options the better.

This is I'd say likely to be the problem with Sony pushing megapixels with the FE system, the lenses needed to get the most out of such sensors(especially I'd guess wideangles) will need to be large.

The A7s seems to make more sense to be as its much less resolution hungry.

Landscape / Re: Rural Landscapes
« on: September 09, 2014, 06:38:42 AM »

EOS-M / Re: Anything new on EOS-M3? How it may compare to A6000?
« on: September 09, 2014, 02:11:12 AM »
I'd agree the body looks like a fake and I suspect if Canon did put out something with a viewfinder it would have at least one dedicated dial for aperture/ISO.

It seems strange given how small the lineup is but for me the main attraction of the M over the A6000 would be the lenses. The Sony system to me seems to be a mix of underperforming cheaper lenses designed to get you to buy overpriced higher performing ones, the Canon actually seems to offer good quality at decent prices.

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D750 to be Canon 5D3 competitor?
« on: September 08, 2014, 03:50:44 PM »

Sums up Sony nicely for me, not a company with the right mentality for any kind of long term vision beyond selling the next cool gadget.

This is a real shame for consumers because Sony does make some cool gadgets.  Sony exec's need to pick out a few notable products to market and STICK with long-term, along with proper lens/speedlite/trigger/accessory support.  As things stand right now, one can buy a cool Sony camera, and before he even had a chance to even fully discover the lack of proper accessory support, the next cool camera has been introduced  :'(

For goodness sake, Sony is still selling the HVL-F60M speedlite without addressing the clearly-reproducible overheating issues Sony customers have been complaining about for a year and a half!

The problem is pretty deeply embedded in Sony's corperate culture if you ask me. Photography is simply a very different market to any of there previous tech business with trust for long term support being a much bigger factor.

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D750 to be Canon 5D3 competitor?
« on: September 08, 2014, 11:18:53 AM »
I am now starting to think I was an idiot for not following the likes of Michael Riechmann ( who sold all of his Canon kit when the Sony A900 came out because his view on product direction and discussion with executives led him to believe that Canon was a dead end. 3 or 4 years on, I've seen nothing to suggest that his decision to sell out of Canon was wrong and I'm starting to regret having not done the same.

Surely this provides as much of a warning given that someone who switched from Canon to the A900 has had to deal with being forced away from SLR's to light robbing SLT's and now has a system that's had limited lens support in recent years and looks like it might even be dropped.

Sums up Sony nicely for me, not a company with the right mentality for any kind of long term vision beyond selling the next cool gadget.

EOS-M / Re: Anything new on EOS-M3? How it may compare to A6000?
« on: September 08, 2014, 06:01:35 AM »
Just because the EOS M system is distributed in Japan doesn't mean it's selling like hot cakes there. I don't have exact figures (which I would be curious to see) but of the professionals I know in Japan, none of are on board with the EOS M.

When I travel to Japan (fairly often), I never see the EOS M making a big appearance in camera stores. The Kiss (aka Rebel) series always have entire aisles dedicated to them. The pro series gear usually has 2nd largest appearance, and in fact, I barely recall seeing any EOS M appearance. I'm sure it was there, I just didn't notice it.

I don't think that's surprising as the camera nore the system as a whole seem to be aimed at professional use.

I think you can see from those sales figures that the Japanese mirrorless market is very different to that in the west. Beyond being vastly larger its also stratified more like DSLR markets with entry level cameras selling more, its only in the much smaller western market that higher end mirrorless makes up most sales.

That's the big mistake in a lot of market analysis I see, people take the Japanese figures for total sales but then consider that those sales are similar to that which we see in the west. The big difference I think that potentially makes is that very small viewfinderless mirrorless sales are arguably not cannibalising the DSLR market as much as higher end sales.

I think the picture you get is less that the Japanese are "ahead of the curve" in switching from DSLR's to mirrorless and more that a larger percentage of the Japanese population value quality enough to buy a camera with a larger sensor. A lot of Japanese EOS M users would I'd guess be the equivalent of people who might just use a basic compact or a phone in the west not those who would buy a DSLR.

EOS Bodies / Re: Silly Photokina Rumors
« on: September 07, 2014, 06:10:26 PM »
Sony are planning a tachyon sensor that can see backwards in time last I heard, no FE lenses though.

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D750 to be Canon 5D3 competitor?
« on: September 07, 2014, 01:28:02 PM »
People who buy 5D3 or D800 or D750 or whatever so-called close competitor model typically have invested in either system for a while. Some people like switching system because certain features of that system attract them, but most cannot afford to switch back and forth just because of some new features of the camera body. The completion in is segment is more about the high end lens not the body.

Your potentially still going to lose new users of course and FF does seem to be growing relative to ASPC recently but I'd agree you can likely get away with not giving everyone what they want for a bit longer. You look at Canon and Nikon recently and they effectively swapped places from the last generation of FF bodies with Nikon selling the high resolution body and Canon the action/all rounder. I'd guessing the thinking behind that was that they needed to service the market that wasn't happy with the previous generation and then leave servicing the market they'd met with that generation for a few years until demand had peaked.

Landscape / Re: Within Forests
« on: September 06, 2014, 11:26:59 AM »

The issue for me wouldn't be that you would see no improvement with 50 MP but that I'd question how much demand there would be for such a camera on the Sony FE mount.

You could argue that it might appeal to those adapting Canon DSLR lenses I spose, something like the new 24-70mm would probably get much of the benefit but really is that a big market?

The FE system thus far seems to have prioritised size over performance for all its wideangle options and whilst the 70-200mm f/4 seems a bit better in that reguard is anyone going to choose the FE system for say wildlife shooting with its AF performance?

EOS-M / Re: Anything new on EOS-M3? How it may compare to A6000?
« on: September 05, 2014, 08:06:50 AM »
AF comparison of mirrorless cameras.

They seems to be much better than rebels. I think it is better for me to shift to mirrorless (smaller footprint and look modern)  from Rebel. Only thing is lens selection to match. There are very nice APS-C lens to fit in the budget of rebels without compromising much.

I would be pretty confident that in terms of AF tracking there not even compared to a Rebel. That test really doesn't push performance much, good light, distant subjects shot at F/4.

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