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Author Topic: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?  (Read 17642 times)

Area256

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #30 on: November 26, 2012, 04:43:04 PM »
My guess is it won't be a straight progression of the current d600 and 6D to lower prices.  The 6D/d600 future generations will likely cost about the same (i.e. about $1700-2000), and just offer better specs in terms of build quality, AF, burst, ect.  A new class will have to come in with lower specs and build (aside from the sensor), and more "auto" features. 

When will this happen?  My thought is not for a long time.  It'll be at least 2-3 years before the d600 and 6D get refreshed, and they won't want to undercut those with cheaper cameras for at least a year after that. When they do, it'll be about $1500.   Wait another 1-3 years, and sales will start pushing them close to $1000.  This of course assumes any of the big three wants to go in this direction, they may try to keep full frame in the realm of serious enthusiasts with deeper pockets able to buy full frame lenses.

So overall I'd expect at least 4-7 years before we see a sub $1000 full frame.  However this could change with EVIL cameras stealing the show.  If enough competitive pressure comes from those markets to erode sales in the DSLR market, we may see a push to claim higher image quality on full frame DSLRs a lot sooner.
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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #30 on: November 26, 2012, 04:43:04 PM »

preppyak

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #31 on: November 26, 2012, 04:54:24 PM »
Assuming you don't accept used and refurbished cameras into the equation, then the reality is that the cheapest full-frame we have now is $14-1500, and that is a several years old model that stayed relevant because it had original features that nobody really topped at that price range. The cheapest, newest iteration is $2100. So, you've got to drop 50% on that body...quite a ways to go.

Heck, the entry-level APS-C cameras retail at $999...can't imagine we'll see another cheap full-frame in production long enough to cross that thresh-hold; the 6D would have to last as long as the 5DII, and I don't see that

bycostello

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #32 on: November 26, 2012, 07:15:10 PM »
i was gonna say never, but actually agree with the guy on 2nd hand gear...

Area256

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #33 on: November 26, 2012, 07:40:41 PM »
That day will come...
And the day mobile phones become FF will also come..just a matter of time i believe...

like i believe i can fly. i believe i can touch the sky... :P

Can we also have anti-gravity, and other fun things that break the laws of physics? :P
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weekendshooter

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #34 on: November 26, 2012, 09:58:42 PM »
Quote
You're quite misinformed if you think sensors are that cheap. Think $1k for full frame and $100-200 for APS-C. Again, it's REALLY HARD to make huge chips with no imperfections. A single dust speck or mistimed/mismeasured fabrication step is much more expensive for a full frame process where only a few chips fit on a wafer than on APS-C, which fit many more. Every possible cost is squared and then some when building big chips.

FF sensors definitely are not 1000 dollars each....
If they were, the 6D would be 3000 dollars minimum, not overpriced at 2100.
I have read VERY conflicting articles on it, but at this point, I don't even think they are evn $500 each as seems to be the most quoted price online...
The last article I read made it seem like they more about $100 each to produce....
I haven't read an article yet that I fully trust in terms of the actual price of the sensor, but somehow, I know that they are not $1000.
If anyone has a link to an article that more clearly and absolutely gives the cost of manufacturing sensors i'd be quite interested to read it.


EXACTLY.  If they sell a 6D for $2100 (and then lower it to retail for $1,700 6 months after release) then how in the world could the sensors cost $1,000.00??  Canon has to make a profit, plus the retailer has to make a profit, plus the REST of the camera has to cost something to make and to assemble too, right??  Also all the marketing and advertizing Canon does in all the magazines, TV, etc., is not free either. 
It might be gratifying (if you own a FF body) to think that a crop sensor could be made for $20 bucks but a FF must cost 50 TIMES that much, but that is nonsense.  And you know the crop sensor can't cost more than $25 to $50 bucks tops, or else how could the T3i I bought 1 year ago at its peak have cost $630.00 body-only, and still the retailer made money, Canon made money, and on top of that, they managed to wrap a whole camera around that sensor, all with change left over?


Because your T3i has a comparatively tiny sensor, in terms of area and ability to pack multiple chips onto a single wafer. Yes, full frame sensors really do cost many MANY times more to make than crop. Here's a link that has a nice picture illustrating what I'm trying to get across. You can ignore the actual numbers since they're his assumptions anyway, but the logic he used to get there is sound: http://www.naturescapes.net/092006/ej0906.htm

Again, full-frame sensors are, especially by modern standards, ENORMOUS chips that nobody really wants to fab because it's extraordinarily difficult to get good yield numbers when a few defects on an entire wafer mean that you have to throw out a large percentage of the total chips on that wafer. A reasonable estimate of 1-3 defects per wafer could theoretically result in a much lower yield of full-frame chips than crop sensors.

This is also the reason that you don't see many 16:10 computer monitors these days; the manufacturers realized that they can pass off 16:9 just as easily while fitting more panels onto a single plate of glass. The gains seem small but are in fact enormous when you consider the scale of manufacturing and the decreased impact of fabrication defects that results from having more units per wafer/plate/etc.

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2012, 10:48:14 PM »
When Yongnuo start making DSLRs ::)
;D ;D

LMAO ;D ;D ;D

Kidding aside, maybe a Samyang-Yongnuo collaboration on camera, body and accessories is very good for photography as a whole.   A sub $1000 FF with a kit lens and external flash kit won't be far-off.  Samyang lens technology isn't that far-off.  If they have full access to the wiring technology between body and lenses, I think they can easily build the AF module.  What's left is Yongnuo's capability of producing capable bodies.  I just hope they'll also have a great after-sales support.  Even if they produce a camera system that's behind by 2-3 years in technology, if they offer it at a very cheap price (1/3 the price of Canikon/Sony), there will be no shortage of takers among the entry, enthusiasts and who knows, the professional level photographers.

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2012, 10:48:14 PM »

Hillsilly

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #37 on: November 27, 2012, 03:43:39 AM »
I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a $1000-$1500 FF mirorrless camera within the next two years.  I see the 6D and 600D as game changers.  Suddenly, we have reasonably specc'd FF cameras being released with $2k price tags. 

For typical camera users, I see the current bread and butter models as follows:

M4/3 - Olympus EPL5 - $599
APS-C - Sony Nex 5R - $648
APS-C - Canon T4i - $799
FF - Canon 6D - $2,000
FF - Nikon D600 - $2,000

I know my logic can be countered in a number of ways, but if I was a camera company exec, I'd be thinking that there's a big hole between $800 and $2000.  What would get the camera community excited?  A cheap FF camera. I'd then work backwards, basing everything upon a final sale price of $1250 - $1500.  Ultimately, I end up with a very simple mirrorless camera with an EVF and a FF sensor.  I end up with a Nex 5, but with a FF sensor and a $600-$800 premium.  (And going by most of the comments above, an $800 price increase isn't unreaslistic to cover the price of a full frame sensor).

Over its lifespan, this camera will decrease in value.  Come end of life, you will see run out specials below $1,000.  Maybe in 4 years time.

The big question is, will it be a Canon?  Sadly, I think not.  As a betting person, I'm liking the odds on Pentax who have a lot of legacy FF lenses and users to satisfy.
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nicku

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #38 on: November 27, 2012, 07:22:13 AM »
Hi,

The title says it all. 

Cheers

....never........ even if the technology allow to produce FF bodies + profit under $1000. the companies are too greedy.

Rienzphotoz

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #39 on: November 27, 2012, 08:20:45 AM »
What do you mean "when"? ... Full Frame bodies are already available for under $1000 ... in our dreams ;D
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AprilForever

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #40 on: November 27, 2012, 08:31:21 AM »
I think you can pick up a Rebel G for about 25 buckaroos on ebay...
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awinphoto

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #41 on: November 27, 2012, 10:08:26 AM »
i'm sure you can pick up a 5d classic for $1000... 
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Area256

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #42 on: November 27, 2012, 10:39:06 AM »
Hi,

The title says it all. 

Cheers

....never........ even if the technology allow to produce FF bodies + profit under $1000. the companies are too greedy.

You forget about competition.  Why do you think we now have $2000 FF bodies?  It will take a while, but slowly and surely prices will be forced down as Canon/Nikon/Sony and maybe others fight for market share.   People said the sub $1000 DSLR wouldn't happen, then Canon released the Rebel and won over tons of new customers.  So someone will make it happen eventually.
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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #42 on: November 27, 2012, 10:39:06 AM »

RLPhoto

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #43 on: November 27, 2012, 10:46:08 AM »
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jcollett

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #44 on: November 27, 2012, 11:30:13 AM »
5Dc
+1 all the way.  The first iteration of the 5D is still a very viable camera for many people and can be had well south of $1K.  It is what I have now.  While it does not have some of the new whiz bang features of new cameras, those features do not necessarily make better pictures.  Plus, the price on the 5Dc has fully depreciated so even if you want to sell it down the road, you will not have lost much in the transaction.  Oh and I love the large pixel size of the ONLY 12MP sensor; allows for a tighter f stop giving more DOF without diffraction issues.  Really wish Canon would make this camera again with this sensor but with ultrasonic cleaning tech included.  They could do that for $1K cameras new.

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Re: When will we have a full frame body below $1,000?
« Reply #44 on: November 27, 2012, 11:30:13 AM »