July 20, 2018, 08:55:12 AM

Author Topic: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.  (Read 32130 times)

Mitch.Conner

  • EOS 7D Mark II
  • *****
  • Posts: 537
  • It was all a lie.
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2013, 03:00:11 PM »
4.  Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals.  Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.


Thank you.  Just what I needed this morning.   :P

I'm tempted to check if lolhumanz.com is a registered domain yet but am too afraid it won't be safe for work.

canon rumors FORUM

Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2013, 03:00:11 PM »

unfocused

  • Canon EF 400mm f/2.8L IS II
  • *********
  • Posts: 4208
    • Mark Gordon Communications
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2013, 03:21:45 PM »
Now that's a good idea.

Here's Sanj's and Ambient's lists adapted to what I would expect:

1. DSLRs will continue to be used by professionals and amateurs alike. Both APS-C and Full Frame will continue to be produced. Full Frame will have a slightly larger market share than it does today, but APS-C will still be the dominant format. An entry-level DSLR will cost an inflation-adjusted $200 and have about 24 mp.

2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones. Apple will offer iPhones branded as (pick one) Canon Inside, Nikon Inside or Fuji Inside.

3. Point and shoot will see a revival in two areas. One will be superzooms, with Canon offering a15mm-2000mm equivalent superzoom. The image quality will be roughly equivalent to the current 7D. The other will be pocketable point and shoots that include a phone. The rear screen of the camera will look roughly the same as today's iPhone and the camera can be programmed to use the owner's existing cell phone number.

4. Canon cameras will have 2 stops better ISO.

5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.

6. Nikon and Canon will each pick up 1-2% more of the market. Fuji will have emerged as the third largest manufacturer and control 90 percent of what remains of the mirrorless interchangeable lens camera market.

7. Sony will have dropped it's own line of cameras and focus solely on supplying components to other manufacturers. Sony lenses will be available on eBay for about 25 cents on the dollar.

8. After losing 25% of its market share to Corel by Google, Adobe will offer a perpetual license for its Creative Suite 12, which can be updated annually for $150.

9. Adobe and Corel by Google will both offer software capable of creating an effective 200 mp image from a 25mp file with no discernible loss of quality. Although 140mp DSLRs are available from both Canon and Nikon, they are a custom order item and are made to the specifications of the buyer. Each manufacturer produces only about three dozen of these each year.

10. Most professionals and serious amateurs will continue to use DSLRs with about 25 mp. 

9. Out of focus images will be a thing of the past as the convergence of improved autofocus, light field focusing and improved software algorithms make it possible to correct for any human focusing errors.

10. Enthusiast and Professional DSLRs will no longer be "off the shelf" items. Instead, customers will select the sensor size (APS-C or full frame); Megapixels (25, 35 or 45); Frame Rate; button configuration; still or video optimization; wi-fi; gps; and about four to five other features not yet released. A camera with the requested options will be delivered in about one week after the order is placed.

11. Independent camera customizers will be available in the major cities (New York, Paris, Beijing, Capetown) who install specialized components mostly into 1D form factor cameras.

RLPhoto

  • Canon EF 400mm f/2.8L IS II
  • *********
  • Posts: 3779
  • Gear doesn't matter, Just a Matter of Convenience.
    • My Portfolio
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2013, 03:30:35 PM »
In ten years, gearheads complain about their gear while photographers continue to deliver great images with any camera.

Rat

  • EOS 80D
  • ****
  • Posts: 267
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2013, 03:41:12 PM »
I'm tempted to check if lolhumanz.com is a registered domain yet but am too afraid it won't be safe for work.

Lolhumans.com and lolhumanz.com are both registered by domain brokers and are for sale. Surprise, surprise.

Also, checking a domain name can be done SFW via sites such as whois.net. Just key in 'domain name' in google and you'll find tons of sites that'll help.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 03:43:14 PM by Rat »
Fed up with brandism.

Niki

  • EOS Rebel T7i
  • ****
  • Posts: 136
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2013, 04:30:29 PM »
film cameras

Don Haines

  • Canon EF 800mm f/5.6L IS
  • ***********
  • Posts: 6973
  • posting cat pictures on the internet since 1986
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2013, 05:35:09 PM »
10 years from now the 7Dmark2 is FINALLY released..... people are still waiting for the updated 100-400F5.6...
The best camera is the one in your hands

Don Haines

  • Canon EF 800mm f/5.6L IS
  • ***********
  • Posts: 6973
  • posting cat pictures on the internet since 1986
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2013, 05:38:21 PM »
4.  Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals.  Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.


Thank you.  Just what I needed this morning.   :P

Been there.... done that.... Fluffy slept all day.... boring!!!!
The best camera is the one in your hands

canon rumors FORUM

Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2013, 05:38:21 PM »

Woody

  • EOS 5DS R
  • ******
  • Posts: 1065
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2013, 05:45:50 PM »
9. DR will be around 16 stops.

The ideal FF sensor will have slightly more than a stop of dynamic range compared to today's sensors. See:
http://home.comcast.net/~NikonD70/Charts/PDR.htm#EOS%205D%20Mark%20III,D600,D800E,EOS%201D%20X,D4,Ideal_FX
Thus, if we believe DXOMark that the D800 sensor is capable of achieving 13.23 stops of DR at base ISO, then the highest achievable DR is at best 14.5.

eml58

  • EOS-1D X Mark II
  • *******
  • Posts: 1926
  • 1Dx
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2013, 06:55:01 PM »
AvTvM will buy a Canon Camera, and actually be Happy with it  ;)
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing

tomscott

  • EOS 5DS R
  • ******
  • Posts: 1110
  • Photographer & Graphic Designer
    • Tom Scott | Photography
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #24 on: November 25, 2013, 07:01:29 PM »
I don't think still photography will be anywhere near like it is now.

I think video will get so good that we will be taking high resolution stills, meaning if your a commercial photographer you will never miss a moment and can freeze that perfect moment.

Its already starting and will change the industry.
5DIV 6DII 5DIII STOLEN 7DII 70D 17-55mm F2.8 16-35mm F2.8 II L 24-70mm F2.8 L 24-105mm F4 L 70-200mm F2.8 II L 100-400mm F4.5-5.6 II L 2x II 1.4X III 580EX

Pi

  • EOS 5DS R
  • ******
  • Posts: 912
    • Math and Photography
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #25 on: November 25, 2013, 07:11:36 PM »
sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,

Would love to educate myself on this. Pls can you guide me where I can read up on this statement. Thx.

The starting point is that the dominant noise at high ISO is the shot noise a.k.a the photon noise, google them. It is not a sensor noise (the sensor has its own noise, most visible in the shadows, or everywhere with long exposures). It is due to the discrete nature of light (on a certain micro scale). This is a noise of the projected image, to be more precise, it is a noisy image of the actual object in front of the lens, and nothing can be done about that for a given amount of total light. An ideal sensor would register every photon in its exact location, and the image will be noisy depending on the exposure (same sensor). This is the physical hard limit.

The reason that not ideal sensors create noisier images, even noisier than the hard limit is that they do not capture all the light (and then we have read noise, etc., but let us ignore this at the moment). If they capture, say 50% (called Quantum Efficiency (QE)), then you lose 1 stop of light, and get 1 stop worse noise than the hard limit

Next, a few smart people calculated the QE of many sensors here: http://www.sensorgen.info/, using DXO data. Today's sensors are around QE=50%. Now, this is with Bayer design, on the green channel (if I remember well). Color separation amplifies the noise, color dependent. If you keep the Bayer design and the color filters and increase the QE to 100%, you gain 1 stop. That's it. You cannot do better than that.

If the future brings sensors with a different design, more light can be captured; how much, it depends on the color. The gain for green(ish) colors would be around 2x (1 stop), for the other would be more but we are not so sensitive to them. There would be (hopefully) no need of color conversion, which can give you a bit more, depending on the color. You get 2+ stop possible improvement but less than 4 stops.

I hope I am wrong!  :)


Radiating

  • EOS 6D Mark II
  • *****
  • Posts: 334
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #26 on: November 25, 2013, 07:33:40 PM »
It is a bit quiet here and until the 7d2 or the high mp camera here is something for us.
I think it may be fun to predict what camera technology will be like in December of 2023.
Here are my few predictions:
1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.

Why? Mirrored cameras simply work better for taking photos than mirrorless, the only advantage of mirrorless is size, which pros don't really care about considering the lenses have the be huge to resolve the amount of detail they do and collect the amount of light they do.

Quote
2. Mirror less would have evolved and be thriving.

Sounds reasonable, but I don't think they will take that much market share away.


Quote
3. Point and shoot would be dead.

Agree 100%

Quote
4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.

Absurd.

This literally defies the laws of physics. Camera noise is actually a function of quantum physics, the noise you see is the variation between the intensity of the random distribution of photons that hit the sensor. The way you reduce noise is by increasing your sample size meaning you collect a larger percentage of photons that hit the sensor.

Cameras currently collect around half the photons that hit the sensor, the rest are absorbed or scattered. That means your camera would also have to be a time machine for it to improve more than 1 stop. It's physically impossible.

Most of the ISO improvements of cameras have come from improvements in marketing not technology. In the LAST 10 years cameras have improved around 2/3rds of a stop. You can expect a similar improvement in the next 10 years.

Marketing has made it so that what used to be ISO 6600 is now "ISO 12800!!!!!!!1111ONE ONE", cameras seem to have settled to nearly doubling stated ISO from actual ISO as the standard for now though.

The nest possible invention will be micro prism technology which may give is that 2/3rds of a stop in 3-4 years.

Quote
5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.

Sounds reasonable.

Quote
6. Canon and Nikon would share equal percentage of the market.

nobody can say

Quote
7. Canon will have 65 mp full frame camera.

reasonable

Quote
8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.

reasonable

Quote
9. DR will be around 16 stops.

reasonable

Quote
10. 1d form factor will stay.

agreed

We all need to put our thoughts down by early next year and then look at this ten years from now and tickle ourselves.

Sanjay
[/quote]

Grumbaki

  • EOS 80D
  • ****
  • Posts: 284
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2013, 07:49:19 PM »
Quote
TEN YEARS FROM NOW.

The capslock epidemics will be solved.

canon rumors FORUM

Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2013, 07:49:19 PM »

Marsu42

  • Canon EF 600mm f/4L IS II
  • **********
  • Posts: 6316
  • Canon Pride.
    • Der Tierfotograf
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2013, 08:34:04 PM »
1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.

I don't quite get this - because phase af is supposed to be better than sensor af even a decade from now? If not, mirrorless is ideal for fps junkies, you need space-age tech to get 12-14fps on the 1dx, but any mirrorless could deliver as many frames as your buffer can hold and card can write.

4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.

Maybe, if they sacrifice 2 stop of dynamic range :-p

5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.

Absolutely, if the marketing guys go crazy there will be a 8 stop IS because no one ever defined what an x stop IS is supposed to be - is it for 100% equivalence @100% crop? If so, with higher mp the real IS rating of lenses will go *down* rather than up. But I agree there might be more clever handheld detection coming up improving IS in general.

8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.

See above, the fastest Canon (mirrorless) will shoot 180fps.

9. DR will be around 16 stops.

But only on low iso - maybe Canon will get closer to Nikon again, and you're already getting 14ev now (and 14.5ev with Magic Lantern :-)).

EchoLocation

  • EOS 80D
  • ****
  • Posts: 317
Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2013, 09:16:55 PM »
2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones.
I think it will be 100% the opposite. DSLR's or medium format(which will then be easily available in DSLR sized cameras) will still be used by most pro's but by only very serious hobbyists(think Neuro, the guys on this board, etc.)... But nearly all the rebel, 70D, 6D market will be replaced by mirrorless cameras.
Yesterday was the day I made the move. I bought the a7 and will soon sell all my DSLR gear. I cannot imagine a reason to go back to DSLR's as long as the weight is nearly double an a7 sized camera and the size is much larger
I firmly believe this trend will continue.... Just imagine how excited people on this board will be when Canon makes a FF mirroless with good AF. Everyone on here will buy one as a backup, and most wont really need their DSLR anymore.... I don't.
Canon EOS-M, 22mm f2, 11-22mm f4-5.6
Canon 550D, Sigma 50mm f1.4
Nikon D700, Nikon 24-70mm f2.8, Tamron 17-35mm f2.8-4

canon rumors FORUM

Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2013, 09:16:55 PM »