2012 Prediction - Canon drop from #1 to ...

[KacperP]

My prediction for 2012 is that Canon will lose its spot as the #1 camera company. A couple of years ago, Canon would dominate the searching on websites such as dpreview, having at least half of the top 10 cameras being theirs. That's no longer the case.

How do you define that #1? Some searching results statistics?
Isn't it better to check sales? Oh wait... advisers in electronic stores that "help" choose photo equipment are now even wearing Sony T-shirts. I heard earlier about additional percentages for them, and I recieved some quite original recomendations from them, but now uniforms makes thing obvious.
Damn... what statistics should I choose then?

I think it's a good thing that Sony makes progress and enforces some competition, but when it comes to details Sony likes to ruin them. Is it due to marketing reasons or other reasons, that's another story.
In flashy marketing first impression Sony knows how to stand out, but after you fell for it...

[RafaPolit]

Way would you rate a company's ability to stay on top based exclusively on MP count?  I really don't care about MPs if the lenses available are sub-par or non existent!  Cropping more is not something I drive my decisions by either, I prefer to take the pictures as I will use them instead or heavy crops.

I don't doubt Sony will become increasingly important as they really know how to make electronics and camera equipment is now a lot of electronics... But MPs is not what they'll win it on.  The new top of the line Canon is only 18MP and I believe it will do very well.

That's my take on the matter at any rate.  If the industry will base their decision on MPs, I'm indeed very sorry.

Rafa.

[archangelrichard]

Seriously? Sony? #1?

Last I read Canon was 60% of the world market for non-phone cameras - but there are many many more phone cameras than real cameras

Nikon is about 25% worldwide

That leaves Sony as a very very small player - but they are bigger in Video cameras

Minolta was last a big time player with the SRT-101, and stayed in the game as a large player up to the XG series but became minor league, then bought by Konica then the camera division was spun off to Sony because they were too small time to be economical and compete.

Mirrorless cameras are a separate market from SLR's for a reason - they are another small niche (possibly FAD) that has been around for a while (see Canon Pellix, etc.) and never made a dent in the market, there is a better chance that they will now but what is that market?

Pro's won't touch it because they buy a system, not a specific camera and there is little of a system here (and smaller does not make better for a pro)

Mirrorless cameras are "yuppie status symbols", rather tha n being used they are to say "I have arrived" and is that market big enough?

[Hillsilly]

Sony in No. 1 in the next year is probably a bit out there.  But to give Dilbert some support, if you were to add up the sales of the DSLRs sporting Sony sensors (ie from Nikon, Pentax and Sony) they would probably come close to matching Canon's dominant sales figures.  Plus the upcoming Nikon D800 is rumoured to have a Sony sensor, too. 

While I've got no intention of leaving Canon (in fact, I just bought another camera a fortnight ago), I think Sony would be my alternative.  Oddly, this is because of the one thing Dilbert talks down - their lens range.  Their Carl Zeiss 24mm, 85mm and 135mm are meant to be as good as it gets (well almost....obviously not as good as the Canon equivalents). And an A900 upgrade is going to be a very interesting camera. 

But every time I look at Sony, it's the small things that turn me off, such as the proprietary hotshoe and memory cards.  Plus, I don't know anyone else using one and local shops don't seem to be keen to stock lenses or accessories.

Sony is already number two in many markets (eg the UK) and they might have what it takes to get to number 1.  But I think it will take a long time before they gain enough widespread market acceptance.

[dilbert]

Seriously? Sony? #1?

Last I read Canon was 60% of the world market for non-phone cameras - but there are many many more phone cameras than real cameras...

Either you read wrong or it has been a long time since you looked at the numbers...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/sony-nikon-narrow-gap-to-canon-with-new-digital-camera-models.html

http://www.eoshd.com/content/506/sony-jump-nikon-for-dslr-sales-canon-amp-nikon-drop-to-60-in-japan

To save a bit of clicking, from the first URL:

Worldwide Digital Camera Market Shares by Vendor
====================================================
Vendor                 2010             2009
----------------------------------------------------
Canon                 19               19
Sony                   17.9             16.9
Nikon                  12.6             11.1

The fan bois might like this quote - "In the market for cameras with interchangeable lens, or single lens reflex cameras, Canon controlled 44.5 percent of the market, followed by Nikon with 29.8 percent and Sony with 11.9 percent, according to the data. " - but will that be (re)defined to include mirrorless, such as NEX? Or those that use a translucent mirror? Either way, it gives us an idea of the ratio of the DSLR market to non-DSLR market as a 33% difference there makes up for about 1% overall.

[scottsdaleriots]

I don't think Canon will lose their #1 status next year, but if they do I believe it'll be Nikon will take that spot. And if that does happen, I think Canon in the latter months of 2012 will come out with something that'll bump them up in the pecking order again, ending 2012 #1. Just my 2 cents

[UncleFester]

NEX does not replace a dslr or worry Canon at all.

[dilbert]

I don't think Canon will lose their #1 status next year, but if they do I believe it'll be Nikon will take that spot. And if that does happen, I think Canon in the latter months of 2012 will come out with something that'll bump them up in the pecking order again, ending 2012 #1. Just my 2 cents

That all depends on how far they fall behind. If Sony/Nikon come out with a real winner in the first half of the year, Canon could find themselves under a lot of pressure to sell anything to new customers in the second half of the year.

NEX does not replace a dslr or worry Canon at all.

I think quotes like that are a worry. If I'm doing street photography, why wouldn't I prefer a NEX over a *SLR if the IQ is comparable? Smaller, less obvious/intrusive rig. Similarly if I can pack a NEX into my backpack rather than a heavy *SLR for landscape work, why wouldn't I want to save on the lbs on my back? NEX has a lot to offer...

DxO Mark rates the NEX-7's APS-C sensor at 81. The 7D scores 66 and the 5D Mark II scores 79.

Whilst the difference between the 5D Mark II and the NEX-7 is too small to notice, what this means is that moving to 24MP on APS-C will not cause a drop in IQ and if you move from the 7D to the NEX-7, you not only gain MP but you gain IQ too. The NEX-7 score is 25 to 30% better than the Canon 7D. Additionally, going to the NEX-7 from the 5D Mark II gets you 3 extra MP and no loss in IQ. Only if you need shallow DoF does the 5D MarkII make for a compelling buy.

Whilst the NEX-7/SLT-A77 do not have the AF capability of the 7D, for anyone that doesn't need that AF capability, Sony's offerings is very very compelling.

[Jettatore]

Competition sucks for all of us.  I've been hearing all my life from stupid old men about how great competition is for the consumer and how great it makes the country (US).  It's a load of crap and it's ruining everything in the long run for all of us.  Just imagine if Nikon, Sony and Canon all shared one mount, an open mount format that any manufacturer could develop for (like USB in computing).  You'd even have brand new companies coming out producing bodies for specific needs and lenses and flashes coming out from all directions that work interchange-ably on a myriad of systems.  It would be the best thing to happen to photography in decades.  The only reason Sony, Nikon and Canon all have a different mounting frames & rewired electronics is for competitions sake and it's an utter waste and a complete hassle for consumers and it's certainly keeping the costs sky high.  I'm sick of it.  Proprietary interfaces should be an outlawed/obsolete practice.  Yeah we gotta deal with it for now, but as soon as someone comes out with an open license camera that anyone is allowed to develop the parts for, I'm leaving all these other morons behind, lickety split.  And if I were also the rest of you, it's exactly what I would be demanding and making noise for.  Sitting here talking about who's going to be #1 next year only encourages the same, over-priced, soft played, poker shark (them) hunting small fish (us) game.

[elflord]

NEX does not replace a dslr or worry Canon at all.

The flip side is, a DSLR does not replace an NEX either.

It fills a  niche between P&S and DSLRs. If you want a big sensor in a compact camera, you need to buy something other than Canon, because they've declined to compete in this market.

Where DSLRs could lose market share to mirrorless is in the DSLR user who wants a more compact package but isn't willing to settle for point and shoot image quality.

I'm not privy to the inner workings of Canon, but if they were ignoring this part of the market, it will probably hurt them. It is not as if this is some tiny niche. I suspect that they are not ignoring it, and have at least developed prototypes and have some kind of strategic vision. They do however seem a bit slow (as in, last) to the market.

[elflord]

Competition sucks for all of us.  I've been hearing all my life from stupid old men about how great competition is for the consumer and how great it makes the country (US).  It's a load of crap and it's ruining everything in the long run for all of us.  Just imagine if Nikon, Sony and Canon all shared one mount, an open mount format that any manufacturer could develop for (like USB in computing).  You'd even have brand new companies coming out producing bodies for specific needs and lenses and flashes coming out from all directions that work interchange-ably on a myriad of systems.

Customers benefit because vendors need to do what's good for the mount including producing R&D intensive lenses instead of pumping out consumer zooms and free riding on other vendors.

There's a standard -- m43, but it's no panacea. Canon, Sony and Nikon have produced a comprehensive lineup because they are motivated to do so.

[UncleFester]

NEX does not replace a dslr or worry Canon at all.

I think quotes like that are a worry. If I'm doing street photography, why wouldn't I prefer a NEX over a *SLR if the IQ is comparable? Smaller, less obvious/intrusive rig. Similarly if I can pack a NEX into my backpack rather than a heavy *SLR for landscape work, why wouldn't I want to save on the lbs on my back? NEX has a lot to offer...

For street photography, which I do very little of as I don't see the point unless something really crazy is going on, I'm bringing a 5DII, a 70-200, and a big-ass flash. I don't worry about being obvious/intrusive, I'm there to get the picture. With gear I'm most familiar with.


BTW, not to get off subject, but a big lens can be like holding a skunk, people will just clear the hell out of the way for you.

[justicend]

Every camera manufactures know that DSLR market is dominated by Canon and Nikon.
Sony failed with they DSLR. So they completely came up with SLT and Mirrorless. we have to see how A77 will do. But there are 4/3 mirrorless players like panasonic and olympus.

DSLR market will be on the top among professionals. The whole point of mirrorless cameras are to attract the pns & entry level DSLR user. Who don't have bunch of lens. Even entry level dslr user are happy with kit lens. I have seen DSLR user who never buys lens other than kit. So it's easy for those user to jump around brands. But many of the user are attracted to SLR like bodies camera,because they wanna use one like professional looking cameras.

The mirrorless are more like interchangable lens point and shoot. They are all fancy looking. Looking at the DSLRs they have similar form factor, the ergonomics, the grip everything seems familiar, Somewhat they share feature in common. The design varies with mirrorless cameras, the companies want to establish their own signature types body. Which is one reason why these cameras are highly unlikely to be "professional".

Mirrorless are not there to establish themselves as professional cameras. It's more for casual user and families who want to have better IQ. It will have it's own place in the camera market.That's it.

If you think Sony A77 like SLT can replace DSLRs, then it's matter of OVF vs EVF.

[UncleFester]

NEX does not replace a dslr or worry Canon at all.

The flip side is, a DSLR does not replace an NEX either.

It fills a  niche between P&S and DSLRs. If you want a big sensor in a compact camera, you need to buy something other than Canon, because they've declined to compete in this market.

Where DSLRs could lose market share to mirrorless is in the DSLR user who wants a more compact package but isn't willing to settle for point and shoot image quality.

I'm not privy to the inner workings of Canon, but if they were ignoring this part of the market, it will probably hurt them. It is not as if this is some tiny niche. I suspect that they are not ignoring it, and have at least developed prototypes and have some kind of strategic vision. They do however seem a bit slow (as in, last) to the market.

I think the the lower end of the dslr market takes care of that niche pretty well. Rebels are nice and small.

  I think it's more of a marketing ploy to play on gear lust over real need or function.

Big corps are pretty good at this game.

[awinphoto]

While it is always difficult to stay the cream of the crop, especially in the professional arena (ask any sports team), this one still has few real players when considering professional and semi professional cameras...  The problem is there are so many cameras out there, so many used cameras, rebels with the same sensors as the 7d, so many consumer cameras from all the manufacturers and so forth, the market is oversaturated with cameras... and lets be honest, the average joe blow going into costco with $600 to blow in his pocket typically doesn't have a strong brand preference or studied forum after forum, review website after review website trying to get the best camera for his buck... Unfortunately, that uneducated customer is what makes up the majority of the market share for most cameras (low end cameras...)  The professional sector tends to be more brand loyal and more educated in their needs... In the professional sector I suspect that Canon will still remain it's superior status as it has done for the last decade give or take, however with the low end market which makes up the majority share, it very well could be canon drops a spot or two or three.