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EOBeav

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Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« on: December 10, 2011, 08:25:19 PM »
As we get closer to the release of a 5D mkIII, I assume that the street price of the mkII will fall.  How low do you see that price going?  I'm in the market for a new camera. I don't mind buying the 'old' one at a really good price, even if the 'new' one is just around the corner. This will be a huge upgrade for me from my 450D. 

Thanks in advance for your comments and discussion points.
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Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« on: December 10, 2011, 08:25:19 PM »

Fleetie

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2011, 08:30:52 PM »
Yeah, I've said on here that I refuse to buy the 5D2 at this late stage in its lifecycle, but I guess everyone has their price. If it went REALLY low, I'd do it. But I don't think it'll go that low.

But in some ways it would still be an upgrade from my (lovely) 7D. I want better high-ISO performance.

Maybe if, or before they ever do decide to issue an 5D2 replacement, they could also release a souped-up 5D2 in a 7D-style magnesium-alloy body with better weather-sealing, sort out the pattern-noise that the 5d2 sometimes suffers, upgrade firmware a bit, and still knock it out at say a couple of hundred pounds above the 7D.

But really, I want the 5D3 like most other people! Especially if it has the 18MP see-in-the-dark sensor!
« Last Edit: December 10, 2011, 08:39:01 PM by Fleetie »
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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2011, 04:10:32 PM »
Is it normal for stores to have some warning above what you could find on this forum as to when they should start constraining their stock in time for an announcement/launch?

Have their been cases where the price has actually gone up? Anyone have a chart for the 5D?

RayS2121

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2011, 04:32:00 PM »
As we get closer to the release of a 5D mkIII, I assume that the street price of the mkII will fall.

I love your optimism on the 5D mk III release :)  All evidence points to no "imminent" release...  but as I posted in a different thread the earliest date for it to *actually* land in your hands is Christmas 2012 (optimistic) or early 2013 (more likely).

So, any which way you dice it, Canon has a year to continue to tease us and push the still capable 5D2.

As for where prices have been this might help. Scroll down to the trend graph.

http://www.canonpricewatch.com/product/02699/Canon-EOS-5D-Mark-II-price.html

Temp rebates aside, the prices do go down over the years, but very slowly, nothing precipitous. As the Canon model line is packed, 5D2 prices cannot keep on going down before they get too close to the midrange cameras underneath... that should give you the lower price limit, this point is "conveniently" when the new 5D3 will arrive ;)  I will guess over the next year or so it "may" hit $1750 or $1800 with rebates  just before the release of 5D3.

Given it won't be $1000 bargain bin at that time, that's a long wait if you plan to get the current 5D2. Pull the trigger at ~$1900 or so and enjoy now;) Cheers. 
« Last Edit: December 11, 2011, 04:38:32 PM by RayS2121 »

mreco99

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2011, 06:23:30 PM »
by the time you wait for announcement date, then actual release date, then actual availability in your country , THEN the 2-3 months of waiting for the initial over inflated release price to come down, get the 5Dmkii now and this time next year + some (possibly) the replacement will be about ready to be bought.
Thats my view and that why I upgraded to 5Dmk2 a few weeks ago, and have never looked back, and looking forward to a whole 4 or 5 seasons not wasted thinking, should i, shouldnt i.

MartinvH

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2011, 08:30:17 PM »
Is it normal for stores to have some warning above what you could find on this forum as to when they should start constraining their stock in time for an announcement/launch?

Have their been cases where the price has actually gone up? Anyone have a chart for the 5D?

I do have a schematic price history of the 5D MarkII  from German stores.
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 http://geizhals.at/deutschland/?phist=366844&age=9999

In Holland it comes with a 5 years garanty  for 1689 euro's
http://www.kamera-express.nl/product/canon-eos-5d-mark-ii-body-/
« Last Edit: December 11, 2011, 08:32:05 PM by MartinvH »

EOBeav

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2011, 11:08:44 PM »
Given it won't be $1000 bargain bin at that time, that's a long wait if you plan to get the current 5D2. Pull the trigger at ~$1900 or so and enjoy now;) Cheers.

That's great info to have, thanks so much. I know we're not going to be looking at the $1k bargain bin, but I wondered how much below $2k it might go.  I'm actually saving up for this, so that's a good target to shoot for. 
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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2011, 11:08:44 PM »

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2011, 12:28:39 AM »
Keep in mind the economic climate and time of year. Retailers wheel and deal to sell more volume around this time of year. But above and beyond that, its been a really rough economic climate, which causes more people to hold onto their dollars than they might otherwise during a booming economy. I would interpret the recent price trend for Canon bodies to be more a reflection of retailers trying to maintain profit margins and volume by accommodating tighter pockets, than an indication that 7D and 5D II replacements are just around the corner.
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RayS2121

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2011, 08:25:16 AM »
I wondered how much below $2k it might go. 

Probably at best a $100 to $200 below 2K is what I would guess. So, for a *new* 5D2 body, ~$1800 would be optimistic and $1900 would be more likely in the comming year.

Would older 5D2's flood the market right after 5D3 release in a year or so forcing prices down for the old model from the dealers substantially?

Near-term, highly unlikely. Whatever 5D2 appears in the used market will be a competetively priced as the new 5D3 will be well ahead in price at ~$3000 to $3500. Historically, with every new Mid- to high-end Canon body, both the price and availability have been issues in the early months (purposeful?) keeping the demand up. One should expect that with 5D3.

So, first few months would be for those with lots of cash and hardcore fans and midrange pro's who can't wait :D. Canon can and will charge whatever they want after this long a wait. While most average 5D2 owners with limited cash will hold on to their trusted 5D2's till the initial rush is over and prices stablize (especially if the MP is lower in the new 5d3!).

All said, to get a good bargain on new 5d3 or older model brand new 5D2, it will be a bit of a wait :).
« Last Edit: December 12, 2011, 10:35:11 AM by RayS2121 »

pedro

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2011, 10:33:20 AM »
I wondered how much below $2k it might go. 

So, first few months would be for those with lots of cash who can't wait. Canon can and will charge whatever they want after this long a wait. Barring the well-heeled, most sensible 5D2 owners with limited cash will hold on to their trusted 5D2's till the initial rush is over and prices stablize (especially if the MP is lower in the new 5d3!).

All said, to get a good bargain on new 5d3 or older model brand new 5D2, it will be a bit of a wait :).

Well, there's joy in the waiting...Reading the field reports of early adopters, you get a much better about it. Especially me, going back to FF...Was shooting a Contax 139 quartz back in the filmdays.
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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2011, 11:14:37 AM »
Time for the alternative theory.

Yes, we are getting "closer" to the release of a 5D MkIII, but we are getting "closer" to every event in the future, including the end of the world. No one outside of Canon knows how much closer we are getting.

People assume that the recent price drops are related to a planned release of a new model. But, there are many other possible explanations.

The price drops do seem to have at least tacit approval from Canon, since they don't seem to be enforcing the standard minimum pricing requirements that usually go with their rebates. However, note that this is the same with their lenses and other DSLR models as well. The 70-200 mm f2.8 IS II has shown a price drop that is as dramatic as the 5D. Does that mean they are replacing the 70-200mm lens?

Retailers drop prices at Christmas time in order to capture as many consumer dollars as they can. Besides the competition between one another, they know this is the time of year when consumers are at their lowest resistance level and a "bargain" can easily push a consumer to buy a little more than he or she planned to. Once the wallet is open, it is much easier to snag a few more dollars out of it.

2011 has been a tough year for businesses all around. Whether it's a major retailer or a supplier like Canon, they are eying their year-end sales numbers and want to end with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. As long as the volume makes up for the reduced margin, trading margins for volume can help their bottom line.

Finally, I keep reminding every one that price cuts can just as easily mean a supplier does not have new product in the wings. Imagine for a minute that Canon knows they won't have a 5D MkIII ready for another nine to 12 months. Armed with that knowledge, what would you do? I know I would shave prices as much as possible in order to grab market share now. 5D buyers are not making one-time purchases and ultimately, I know that if they have my camera, they will be buying my lenses and if they have my lenses, they will be buying my camera bodies in the future.

So, what's the best strategy? Reduce prices on my top consumer model and my top selling luxury lens. Sell the 70-200 f2.8 II to current owners of 5Ds and 7Ds to lock them in. Sell 5Ds to current owners of 7Ds and other APS-C upgraders. With every 5D II or 70-200 f2.8 they sell, they know they locked in a permanent customer who has no real choice to but to wait as long as it takes for the replacement model to come out.

Now, I'm not pretending to have any real knowledge of Canon's strategy and it's entirely possible we could see a 5D MkIII announced tomorrow (doubt it), I'm just suggesting that no one should assume that current pricing strategies are driven solely by a development schedule.

I know I've gotten seriously off track from the original post. But, here is what I would suggest you consider: We are seeing a "perfect storm" of low prices right now. They may go lower. But they may go higher. It's always a gamble. Buy when the price is right for you.
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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2011, 03:19:54 PM »
Retailers drop prices at Christmas time in order to capture as many consumer dollars as they can. Besides the competition between one another, they know this is the time of year when consumers are at their lowest resistance level and a "bargain" can easily push a consumer to buy a little more than he or she planned to. Once the wallet is open, it is much easier to snag a few more dollars out of it.

2011 has been a tough year for businesses all around. Whether it's a major retailer or a supplier like Canon, they are eying their year-end sales numbers and want to end with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. As long as the volume makes up for the reduced margin, trading margins for volume can help their bottom line.

Another thread mentioned that January is historically the time of stocktaking, so having less stock at this time is beneficial for stores and companies? (I know in the white goods / tech field you've also got the yearly cycle of new product launches coming, so they'll discount beforehand to get rid of this year's stock - the nearest example being the discounting of the 600D)

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Re: Canon 5D mkII price trajectory?
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2011, 03:19:54 PM »