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Author Topic: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up  (Read 6512 times)

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November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« on: January 07, 2018, 02:45:42 PM »
CIPA sales numbers for November 2017 have been released, and show another decline in shipments when compared to 2015 and 2016.

The marketshare for mirrorless cameras remains at about 35% of total ILC segment. This number hasn’t moved all that much over the last year or so. While Sony continues to develop and release cutting edge mirrorless cameras, they don’t seem to be taking sales away from DSLRs.

The mirorrless marketshare likely won’t see much movement until Nikon and Canon enter the prosumer full frame mirrorless space.

Total ILC shipments as of November 2017 show a very slight bump up of a few hundred thousand shipments over 2016, we’ll have to wait for the December 2017 numbers to see if 2017 continues to show an increase in sales over 2016.

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November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« on: January 07, 2018, 02:45:42 PM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2018, 02:50:22 PM »
The marketshare for mirrorless cameras remains at about 35% of total ILC segment. This number hasn’t moved all that much over the last year or so. While Sony continues to develop and release cutting edge mirrorless cameras, they don’t seem to be taking sales away from DSLRs.

But...but...mirrorless is taking over and the dSLR is dead. The Sony fanbois have made that perfectly clear.  Don't you read your own forum?  ;)
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Mt Spokane Photography

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2018, 03:08:27 PM »
There are always huge sales at Christmas to clear inventory.  Canon's Fiscal Year ended December 31, so they sell as much as they can to make their stock report look good.  I believe that Sony's year end comes around the end of April.  They had a huge discount on high end cameras last ~January - February.

Every business tries to clear out stock before the end of the FY.



unfocused

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2018, 03:59:11 PM »
The mirorrless marketshare likely won’t see much movement until Nikon and Canon enter the prosumer full frame mirrorless space...

I'm a bit skeptical. What is the ratio of APS-C to full-frame DSLRs? Is there any reason to believe that full frame mirrorless will have a significant impact on overall sales numbers? It sure feels like a niche market to me.


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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2018, 04:06:49 PM »
The mirorrless marketshare likely won’t see much movement until Nikon and Canon enter the prosumer full frame mirrorless space...

I'm a bit skeptical. What is the ratio of APS-C to full-frame DSLRs? Is there any reason to believe that full frame mirrorless will have a significant impact on overall sales numbers? It sure feels like a niche market to me.

I've never seen a breakdown of APS-C vs FF, but you might be right. I think Canon is likely going to be #2 in mirrorless sales and ahead of Sony when the dust settles on 2017 with some great APS-C mirrorless cameras (where is the range of primes?!).

Canon has always said that the decline in DSLR sales has hit the Rebel segment the hardest, and that prosumer and professional cameras continue to sell well. I have a hard time believing pros are going to move to a mirrorless camera if EF lenses don't work without an adaptor. I know that would be a non-starter for me (I'm not a pro).
« Last Edit: January 07, 2018, 04:11:09 PM by Canon Rumors »
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Mt Spokane Photography

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2018, 05:38:56 PM »
Nikon has reported in the past that the ratio is between 5:1 and 6:1, so Canon also likely sells ~20% FF or a bit less.  Overall though, some manufacturers only produce APS-C, and there is micro 4/3 and now the G1X MK III, so overall about 10-12% FF.

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

unfocused

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2018, 05:59:14 PM »
The mirorrless marketshare likely won’t see much movement until Nikon and Canon enter the prosumer full frame mirrorless space...

I'm a bit skeptical. What is the ratio of APS-C to full-frame DSLRs? Is there any reason to believe that full frame mirrorless will have a significant impact on overall sales numbers? It sure feels like a niche market to me.

I've never seen a breakdown of APS-C vs FF, but you might be right. I think Canon is likely going to be #2 in mirrorless sales and ahead of Sony when the dust settles on 2017 with some great APS-C mirrorless cameras (where is the range of primes?!).

Canon has always said that the decline in DSLR sales has hit the Rebel segment the hardest, and that prosumer and professional cameras continue to sell well. I have a hard time believing pros are going to move to a mirrorless camera if EF lenses don't work without an adaptor. I know that would be a non-starter for me (I'm not a pro).

Agree with your assessment. It does appear that full-frame is gaining as an overall percentage of DSLR sales, just based on the Amazon rankings today vs. a few years ago when the 6D was the only full frame ever hitting the top 10.

I definitely believe that Canon will make sure their full-frame mirrorless, when and if it comes, will offer a native EF mount.

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2018, 05:59:14 PM »

StoicalEtcher

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2018, 06:25:59 PM »
I would have thought 2017 could have been a relatively strong year for Canon full-frame, given the 5DIV was released only a few months before the end of 2016 (so most purchases into 2017?) and the 6D II came during 2017 - so maybe an extra boost for Canon's full frame ratio over the other  "interval" years?

I also agree that the full-frame mirrorless, when it comes will offer native EF-mount - why would you risk giving away potentially your greatest customer tie-in?  I also reckon it should be pretty good when it comes, given the time Canon have had to develop it (as opposed to having rushed it to market!).
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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2018, 07:33:59 PM »
I am guessing December shipments may be high because of Canon 6D2 and 5D4 were selling at historically lower prices with extras after MIR + a7r3 pre-order shipments + D850 pre-order shipments. That is just a wild guess. Anyone know if the Canon refurbished sales are counted in these figures? If so they might boost numbers as well

dolina

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2018, 10:46:55 PM »
Go out and shoot guys.  ;D

Looking forward to Lensvid's take on this year's sales.
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Mikehit

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2018, 04:55:16 AM »
Nikon has reported in the past that the ratio is between 5:1 and 6:1, so Canon also likely sells ~20% FF or a bit less.  Overall though, some manufacturers only produce APS-C, and there is micro 4/3 and now the G1X MK III, so overall about 10-12% FF.

https://www.pointsinfocus.com/blog/2017/05/assessment-us-full-frame-camera-market-prompted-sonys-press-release/

I found that a fascinating article - thank you for posting.

It certainly shows the complications in drawing any hard conclusions and was interested to read their comment that "there’s not a real clear appreciation for just how small the camera market is. " and how small shifts can change ranking in market share.

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2018, 10:29:53 AM »
We need to remind ourselves CIPA reports either production or shipments, not sales.  Units targeted for US holiday/end of year sales were likely shipped in Oct. or Nov.  The Americas still lag all other markets in shift to ML.   In Japan 45% of ILC shipments are ML, in Americas it is only 22%.  BCN rankings for Japan show Olympus as #1 in ML with Canon #2 and Sony #3.  BCN has Canon as #1 overall and #1 in dSLR with a 63% share (double that of #2 Nikon (32%) while Ricoh/Pentax hangs on as #3 with 5% share).  The dollar value (actually Yen value) of ML shipments continues to rise faster than the unit value indicating ML units being shipped are moving to higher end units.
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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2018, 10:44:57 AM »
I definitely believe that Canon will make sure their full-frame mirrorless, when and if it comes, will offer a native EF mount.

I agree it's possible, but what makes you so sure?  To my knowledge, the only folks who have pitched the mirror but retained the full mirrorbox-depth were Sigma's SD Quattro offerings and Swiss company Alpa kitting together some components in the Medium Format space.  Everyone else to date (CX, m43, APS-C, FF, etc.) has chosen 'thin' + adaptor.

I'm fully aware of the rationale of why you'd go full mount, but what read of the market data, its customers, etc. does Canon have that the rest of the market doesn't?  Are they all off-target on this, or is this just something only Canon can do because of its market share?

(^^^ Not meant as I an attack / 'I don't believe you' nearly so much as a curiosity. ^^^  I don't think anyone knows what it will be, so I'm curious where your conviction on this is coming from.)

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2018, 10:44:57 AM »

StoicalEtcher

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #13 on: January 08, 2018, 11:19:26 AM »
Ahsanford,

In the spirit of conversation (also not looking to attack):

I can't answer for unfocussed, but from my point of view, while not "certain" it would be EF-mount, my thoughts would stem from Canon wanting to retain that huge customer base of existing lens holders - how many have they sold so far...120M and counting?  Might others have chosen a thin+adaptor because they have fewer existing lens owners to lose?

And I can't think of a better way to ensure your mirrorless FF gets off to a huge start, than by encouraging existing customers that they don't need to invest in another range of lenses, but can take the mew camera and launch straight into old their lovely glass.  [Of course profit-wise, Canon might like the idea of a new range of lenses to be purchased...]

Having said that, I'm an interested observer/customer, not anyone with any special insight.

Cheers
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 11:23:48 AM by StoicalEtcher »
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ahsanford

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2018, 11:28:01 AM »
I can't answer for unfocussed, but from my point of view, while not "certain" it would be EF-mount, my thoughts would stem from Canon wanting to retain that huge customer base of existing lens holders - how many have they sold so far...120M and counting?  Might others have chosen a thin+adaptor because they have fewer existing lens owners to lose?

Yep, that's the $64,000 question:  does Canon want to gobble up brand-agnostic enthusiasts who don't mind using multiple systems (does Canon want them to know 'yes, we offer one, too'), or do they just want 1 in 10 of their current Canon users to buy one as an additional body?  If it's the latter, going big / full EF mount makes perfect sense.

I say that because the full mount decision overwhelmingly rewards big-glass wielding (don't care about size) Canon FF users and sets up some pricey/painful barriers for entry for others, i.e. Canon will only get a vapor-level slice of competitive business if they go full mount, and enthusiasts will likely yawn and move on to something svelter/sexier/smaller that Sony (or eventually Nikon) ends up offering.

The thin mount FF scratches other market itches -- the need to be small, the coveted 1%-er with bags of discretionary money market, the desire to tinker with older / competitive lenses on adaptors, the 'perception of newness / slickness' (more about the mirrorless tech in truth, but in perception the size identifies the advance of technology to some), etc.

Another thought:  if Canon can offer a 10+ product lines in non-Cinema ILC in 2018, there might be room for a both a skinny mount FF mirrorless and a full mount mirrorless offering.

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« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 11:30:03 AM by ahsanford »

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Re: November CIPA Sales Numbers Are In, Year-Over-Year Slightly Up
« Reply #14 on: January 08, 2018, 11:28:01 AM »