May 27, 2018, 04:24:05 AM

Author Topic: Tony Northrup Predicts The Upcoming Full Frame Mirrorless Offerings From Both Canon and Nikon  (Read 13712 times)

privatebydesign

  • Canon EF 800mm f/5.6L IS
  • ***********
  • Posts: 6859
  • Would you take advice from a cartoons stuffed toy?
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.
Too often we lose sight of the fact that photography is about capturing light, if we have the ability to take control of that light then we grow exponentially as photographers. More often than not the image is not about lens speed, sensor size, DR, MP's or AF, it is about the light.

canon rumors FORUM


reef58

  • EOS Rebel T7i
  • ****
  • Posts: 121
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.

I think the point of Tony's video is Canon is not in the game.  Unless I am wrong Canon does not have a FF mirrorless camera.  I thought his presentation was pretty straightforward and fair.  That being said I am not one clamoring for a FF Mirrorless.  At this point couldn't care less about mirrorless.  I am interested in the 90d and 5dsr2 however.

Mikehit

  • Canon EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II
  • ********
  • Posts: 2471
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.

I think the point of Tony's video is Canon is not in the game.  Unless I am wrong Canon does not have a FF mirrorless camera.  I thought his presentation was pretty straightforward and fair.  That being said I am not one clamoring for a FF Mirrorless.  At this point couldn't care less about mirrorless.  I am interested in the 90d and 5dsr2 however.

People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Panasonic and Olympus could not compete in the FF market so decided to set up the MFT consortium
Sony could not compete in teh DSLR arean so, seeing what Panasonic were doing,  went in tot APS-C and FF mirrorless
Canon are the leaders and concentrated on their core market, taking mirrorless development at a far more casual rate and responding to what was happening in the mirrorless market. It is still early days.
Nikon....I don't think anyone really knows what has gone wrong with Nikon but they have tried to have their fingers in all the pies and ended up creating a winner in the D850.

melgross

  • PowerShot G1 X II
  • ***
  • Posts: 21
First of all, there was absolutely nothing new in this video. He didn’t say a single thing that we haven’t all head, several times, before.

I also disagree with a number of things he said. Sony isn’t doing all that well in their photo business in either DSLR’s, mirrorless or compact cameras. The reason the went to mirrorless so early wasn’t because they wanted to come out it’s something more advanced, but because their DSLR business was in tatters. No matter what they did, they couldn’t raise that 5% marketshare they began with when they purchased Konica/Minolta.

So mirrorless was a way, they thought, to enter a market where they would be early, and capture a large part of it. It didn’t work out the way they thought. It’s interesting to note that Canon, after having being criticized for several years for not entering that mirrorless market, is now one of, or is, the biggest mirrorless maker, with the fastest growth rate.

I also don’t agree that they have the most to lose. I do agree with Thom Hogan, the well known Nikon expert, that it’s Nikon that has the most to worry about, and the most to lose.

Talys

  • EOS-1D X Mark II
  • *******
  • Posts: 1543
  • Canon 6DII
People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Exactly.

By that definition, the only company in the game is Sony.

It isn't like, "On the day that Canon and Nikon both have mirrorless full frame cameras, nearly all cameras sold will be mirrorless full frame cameras."

I mean, all the camera manufacturers wish this were so, but for obvious reasons, that is not going to happen!


I also don’t agree that they have the most to lose. I do agree with Thom that it’s Nikon that has the most to worry about, and the most to lose.

The assertion is technically true... because the company with the most marketshare by definition has the most to lose :D
« Last Edit: April 20, 2018, 11:59:11 AM by Talys »

melgross

  • PowerShot G1 X II
  • ***
  • Posts: 21
People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Exactly.

By that definition, the only company in the game is Sony.

It isn't like, "On the day that Canon and Nikon both have mirrorless full frame cameras, nearly all cameras sold will be mirrorless full frame cameras."

I mean, all the camera manufacturers wish this were so, but for obvious reasons, that is not going to happen!

I’m not sure I understood you reply. Are you really saying that the only company that matters is Sony? Seriously?

People, not only does Canon have the fastest growing mirrorless line, it’s one of, if not, the biggest already. And if the game is selling cameras, not “just” mirrorless, then again, it’s Canon, with over 50% of the world market, and growing.

However canon does full frame, there will be a large user base eagerly waiting for it. If the future is mirrorless, and it might be, eventually, then Canon shouldn’t worry about cannibalizing present camera lines.jf they can transition every DSLR user to mirrorless, then that will move their 50+% share over. They must know that.

If they do this in such a way that a new body and cadaver works seemlessly, then they will have the worlds largest, and newest line if lenses for it too. Moving to newer lenses will be easy. I see no problem there.

Talys

  • EOS-1D X Mark II
  • *******
  • Posts: 1543
  • Canon 6DII
People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Exactly.

By that definition, the only company in the game is Sony.

It isn't like, "On the day that Canon and Nikon both have mirrorless full frame cameras, nearly all cameras sold will be mirrorless full frame cameras."

I mean, all the camera manufacturers wish this were so, but for obvious reasons, that is not going to happen!

I’m not sure I understood you reply. Are you really saying that the only company that matters is Sony? Seriously?

People, not only does Canon have the fastest growing mirrorless line, it’s one of, if not, the biggest already. And if the game is selling cameras, not “just” mirrorless, then again, it’s Canon, with over 50% of the world market, and growing.

However canon does full frame, there will be a large user base eagerly waiting for it. If the future is mirrorless, and it might be, eventually, then Canon shouldn’t worry about cannibalizing present camera lines.jf they can transition every DSLR user to mirrorless, then that will move their 50+% share over. They must know that.

If they do this in such a way that a new body and cadaver works seemlessly, then they will have the worlds largest, and newest line if lenses for it too. Moving to newer lenses will be easy. I see no problem there.

Not at all.

I'm agreeing with Mikehit that full frame mirrorless isn't "the game".  It isn't even close, because I mean, how many people do you know with a mirrorless full frame camera?  Yet this has become an online obsession.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2018, 12:12:46 PM by Talys »

canon rumors FORUM


3kramd5

  • Canon EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II
  • ********
  • Posts: 2030
which YouTuber would you recommend that puts out Camera videos

Karl Taylor. He’s a legitimate photographer first, but does put videos on the YouTubes.
(Some are silly, like a comparison of a relatively cheap MILC to a very expensive medium format system)
« Last Edit: April 20, 2018, 12:16:20 PM by 3kramd5 »

reef58

  • EOS Rebel T7i
  • ****
  • Posts: 121
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.

I think the point of Tony's video is Canon is not in the game.  Unless I am wrong Canon does not have a FF mirrorless camera.  I thought his presentation was pretty straightforward and fair.  That being said I am not one clamoring for a FF Mirrorless.  At this point couldn't care less about mirrorless.  I am interested in the 90d and 5dsr2 however.

People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Panasonic and Olympus could not compete in the FF market so decided to set up the MFT consortium
Sony could not compete in teh DSLR arean so, seeing what Panasonic were doing,  went in tot APS-C and FF mirrorless
Canon are the leaders and concentrated on their core market, taking mirrorless development at a far more casual rate and responding to what was happening in the mirrorless market. It is still early days.
Nikon....I don't think anyone really knows what has gone wrong with Nikon but they have tried to have their fingers in all the pies and ended up creating a winner in the D850.

The video was specifically about Canon and Nikon's entry into full frame mirrorless.  That is all.  It was not about doom, gloom overall sales or any such thing.  It was a prediction of their offerings in FF Frame mirrorless.  Did anyone actually watch the video?

privatebydesign

  • Canon EF 800mm f/5.6L IS
  • ***********
  • Posts: 6859
  • Would you take advice from a cartoons stuffed toy?
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.

I think the point of Tony's video is Canon is not in the game.  Unless I am wrong Canon does not have a FF mirrorless camera.  I thought his presentation was pretty straightforward and fair.  That being said I am not one clamoring for a FF Mirrorless.  At this point couldn't care less about mirrorless.  I am interested in the 90d and 5dsr2 however.

People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Panasonic and Olympus could not compete in the FF market so decided to set up the MFT consortium
Sony could not compete in teh DSLR arean so, seeing what Panasonic were doing,  went in tot APS-C and FF mirrorless
Canon are the leaders and concentrated on their core market, taking mirrorless development at a far more casual rate and responding to what was happening in the mirrorless market. It is still early days.
Nikon....I don't think anyone really knows what has gone wrong with Nikon but they have tried to have their fingers in all the pies and ended up creating a winner in the D850.

The video was specifically about Canon and Nikon's entry into full frame mirrorless.  That is all.  It was not about doom, gloom overall sales or any such thing.  It was a prediction of their offerings in FF Frame mirrorless.  Did anyone actually watch the video?

I wasn't commenting on the video, I was pointing out the absurdity of the comment I quoted.

Canon absolutely do not have to make a FF MILC, in the same way they don't 'have' to make a MF camera to compete with the Pentax 645Z, or flashes to compete with the Profoto B1Z. If they do make a FF MILC it will be on their terms given that they know how comparatively small that market is.

There are a disproportionately vocal number of blowhards that are completely skewing the apparent size and relevance of a FF MILC market.
Too often we lose sight of the fact that photography is about capturing light, if we have the ability to take control of that light then we grow exponentially as photographers. More often than not the image is not about lens speed, sensor size, DR, MP's or AF, it is about the light.

reef58

  • EOS Rebel T7i
  • ****
  • Posts: 121
If they released a mirrorless version of the 5D IV (closest a7 III competitor) and priced it at $2000 to compete with the Sony A7 III, then the 5D IV DSLR and 6D II will nosedive in value.

Canon needs to forget about competing with its own cameras and start competing with other camera manufacturers such as Sony in the mirrorless department.

Yes, because they are very unsuccessful at competition  ::) ::)
They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras. I'm hoping they get in the game with the rumoured full frame mirrorless ones.

Pull your head out of your ass, sales figures publicly available show Canon outsell Sony on MILC's, indeed in the MILC market Canon are second in volume only to Olympus. Sony are third behind both Canon and Olympus, how is that "They aren't even in the competition yet when it comes to mirrorless cameras"?

You people and your opinions are so disconnected from the real world it is farcical.

I think the point of Tony's video is Canon is not in the game.  Unless I am wrong Canon does not have a FF mirrorless camera.  I thought his presentation was pretty straightforward and fair.  That being said I am not one clamoring for a FF Mirrorless.  At this point couldn't care less about mirrorless.  I am interested in the 90d and 5dsr2 however.

People see to take the view that 'the game' is selling mirrorless FF cameras. It is not. 'The game' is selling cameras - no more, no less.

Panasonic and Olympus could not compete in the FF market so decided to set up the MFT consortium
Sony could not compete in teh DSLR arean so, seeing what Panasonic were doing,  went in tot APS-C and FF mirrorless
Canon are the leaders and concentrated on their core market, taking mirrorless development at a far more casual rate and responding to what was happening in the mirrorless market. It is still early days.
Nikon....I don't think anyone really knows what has gone wrong with Nikon but they have tried to have their fingers in all the pies and ended up creating a winner in the D850.

The video was specifically about Canon and Nikon's entry into full frame mirrorless.  That is all.  It was not about doom, gloom overall sales or any such thing.  It was a prediction of their offerings in FF Frame mirrorless.  Did anyone actually watch the video?

I wasn't commenting on the video, I was pointing out the absurdity of the comment I quoted.

Canon absolutely do not have to make a FF MILC, in the same way they don't 'have' to make a MF camera to compete with the Pentax 645Z, or flashes to compete with the Profoto B1Z. If they do make a FF MILC it will be on their terms given that they know how comparatively small that market is.

There are a disproportionately vocal number of blowhards that are completely skewing the apparent size and relevance of a FF MILC market.

Whether Canon needs to make them or not is a business decision by Canon.  I am not interested at this point, but I think that would be like saying Ford doesn't need to build SUV's.  The reality is Canon probably does for a host of reasons other than the FF mirrorless market by itself. 

I think Tony's video was based upon the likely fact Canon will indeed be sending one to market.  He pointed out Canon's strengths and weaknesses and how they may impact the camera that is eventually introduced.  I actually thought it was a pretty fair analysis although history may show it to be wrong.  That is the chance you take when you make predictions.

zim

  • EOS-1D X Mark II
  • *******
  • Posts: 1684
First of all, there was absolutely nothing new in this video. He didn’t say a single thing that we haven’t all head, several times, before.

I also disagree with a number of things he said. Sony isn’t doing all that well in their photo business in either DSLR’s, mirrorless or compact cameras. The reason the went to mirrorless so early wasn’t because they wanted to come out it’s something more advanced, but because their DSLR business was in tatters. No matter what they did, they couldn’t raise that 5% marketshare they began with when they purchased Konica/Minolta.

So mirrorless was a way, they thought, to enter a market where they would be early, and capture a large part of it. It didn’t work out the way they thought. It’s interesting to note that Canon, after having being criticized for several years for not entering that mirrorless market, is now one of, or is, the biggest mirrorless maker, with the fastest growth rate.

I also don’t agree that they have the most to lose. I do agree with Thom Hogan, the well known Nikon expert, that it’s Nikon that has the most to worry about, and the most to lose.

+1 spot on IMO

stevelee

  • EOS 7D Mark II
  • *****
  • Posts: 523
Whether Canon needs to make them or not is a business decision by Canon.  I am not interested at this point, but I think that would be like saying Ford doesn't need to build SUV's.  The reality is Canon probably does for a host of reasons other than the FF mirrorless market by itself. 

Or saying Canon doesn't need to build SUVs. Ford already does, and it is a significant part of their business. Canon, however, has chosen not to, so far, at least.

canon rumors FORUM


Jack Douglas

  • Canon EF 400mm f/2.8L IS II
  • *********
  • Posts: 5272
  • http://www.gohaidagwaii.ca/blog/eagle-photography-
Tony's not my cup of tea either.  Wonder if he's really as sarcastic as he comes across?

Jack
1DX2   11-24 F4   24-70 F4   70-200 F2.8 II   300 F2.8 II   1.4X III   2X III   400 DO F4 II 

http://yourshot.nationalgeographic.com/profile/647784/

Cochese

  • PowerShot G1 X II
  • ***
  • Posts: 47
I think Tony makes a lot of really good points, but I don't understand his notion that people don't understand the viewfinder coming from a cell phone. I don't do it a lot at the moment, but when I'm teaching people the basics of how a DSLR works, the viewfinder is never the issue and they never expect to pinch to zoom a photo. They don't even attempt it. They don't. At all. The last two 18 year old kids that I was teaching the finer points of aperture, exposure, and ISO never once puzzled about the view finder. Maybe it's my sample size (roughly fifteen or so individuals of varying ages, all under 24), but again, the viewfinder was the least of their issues. The biggest issue was teaching them how to process a RAW file.
Seriously, are the people he knows so slow witted they cannot figure out the difference between an optical view finder and an phone screen? It almost feels like that was thrown in as a troll.

canon rumors FORUM