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Author Topic: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?  (Read 5744 times)

unfocused

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Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« on: March 02, 2012, 12:52:32 PM »
Hey...somebody had to be first. Why not me. :)

Seriously though, and only marginally related to the thread's title (That's called marketing by the way), the new specs of the 5DIII got me thinking about the future of DSLRs.

I know that whenever a new model of anything comes out, we convince ourselves that it is exactly what we have to have and if we just have that we will be happy forever...until the next model comes out. But, if the 5DIII actually performs anywhere close to what Canon is claiming, I am hard-pressed to think of what other features I might ever want in a DSLR.

Full disclosure here: I am not in the market for a full frame DSLR and don't anticipate I will be anytime in the foreseeable future (I am too addicted to the advantages of a 1.6 crop factor).

But, I look at the others specs of the 5DIII and realize that the promised ISO, noise and dynamic range would more than meet my needs. The autofocus would be more than sufficient for anything I am likely to shoot. I might have some small interest in a little faster frame rate, but probably not really. The resolution is more than adequate (I find the 18 mp of the 7D just fine and usually end up throwing away megapixels anyway. I've done prints up to apprx. 2 x 3 feet with no problem at 18 mp, so 22 is more than adequate for virtually anything I will ever do.

The point I'm trying to make is that for a full frame camera, this doesn't seem to me to be a camera on a two-three year replacement cycle. Rather, I could imagine this camera still being very viable for a decade. I know that's a risky statement since no one knows what the future will hold, and, of course Canon is in the business of creating "must have" features in order to keep selling new product. Yet, I do have a hard time imagining what those features might be.

I'm not saying this is the same for everyone, but I am suggesting that we may be turning a corner in the DSLR market where, as the technology matures, the old two-three year cycles won't be applicable in the future.

In my own individual case, I am a big fan of my 7D. It is the best camera I have ever owned and I am a former F1 owner. But, I do see that there are things Canon could improve on for the 7DII. If they follow the path they've set out with the 1Dx and now the 5DIII, I can well imagine a 7D that would also have an extended life cycle.

So, I'm just throwing this out there for others to pick apart. Are we reaching a point with DSLR technology where the viable life-cycle of cameras will grow far beyond the two-three year cycle we've seen in recent history and return to the more traditional five to 10 year cycles that characterized film cameras?
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Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« on: March 02, 2012, 12:52:32 PM »

keithfullermusic

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2012, 01:12:00 PM »
I'm already thinking about the 5DV.  There are two fives in it, so it has to be waaaaaaay better.  By the current pricing hikes it might retail for $55,555.55 though.  So I think I will wait for the 5DV to come out and get the 5DIV on sale.
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DavidRiesenberg

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2012, 01:37:57 PM »
So, I'm just throwing this out there for others to pick apart. Are we reaching a point with DSLR technology where the viable life-cycle of cameras will grow far beyond the two-three year cycle we've seen in recent history and return to the more traditional five to 10 year cycles that characterized film cameras?

Actually, I believe as time goes on it is inevitable that DSLRs will actually switch to a faster product cycle, maybe even as fast as once a year, even for top of the line models. I know that all available facts indicate the contrary but in the end I think that the market will dictate it based on a desire for faster updates. Of course, for that to happen, the price brackets have to slide down and more importantly, sensor and CPU technology have to pick up the pace in order to justify the updates.

Astro

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2012, 01:45:34 PM »
So, I'm just throwing this out there for others to pick apart. Are we reaching a point with DSLR technology where the viable life-cycle of cameras will grow far beyond the two-three year cycle we've seen in recent history and return to the more traditional five to 10 year cycles that characterized film cameras?

Actually, I believe as time goes on it is inevitable that DSLRs will actually switch to a faster product cycle, maybe even as fast as once a year, even for top of the line models. I know that all available facts indicate the contrary but in the end I think that the market will dictate it based on a desire for faster updates. Of course, for that to happen, the price brackets have to slide down and more importantly, sensor and CPU technology have to pick up the pace in order to justify the updates.

sensor development slows down but product cycles are going to be faster?

well olympus brings new art filters with every new pen but sticks to the same sensor for some generations..... but i doubt that will work for DSLR cameras you have to pay 3000$ for.

so no.. i doubt we will see updates each year.

NWPhil

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2012, 01:52:04 PM »
I'm already thinking about the 5DV.  There are two fives in it, so it has to be waaaaaaay better.  By the current pricing hikes it might retail for $55,555.55 though.  So I think I will wait for the 5DV to come out and get the 5DIV on sale.

Darn, I got here too late...was thinking about that too LOL - I don't we are going to see a 5D-six (name prone to too many associations/confusions/misspellings)
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Arkarch

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2012, 01:56:15 PM »
There is the high MP version that has been bantered about. 

I know some of the landscape guys seem to be holding out for that.

Beyond that - a number of convenience features could be useful - new media formats; integrated wireless and GPS; so on.  But as an image maker, I expect we are reaching diminishing return.

The Cinema DSLR is likely the next thing.
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D_Rochat

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2012, 02:02:50 PM »
I'm waiting for the 5D mark IV because I want 100mp, crystal clear images at ISO 204,800, 20 fps, carbon fiber hurricane proof body, mind control with no buttons, 24-70L IS III and I don't want to pay more than $2500. If Canon doesn't make this camera for me, I'm going to Nikon and getting the D900. I don't think this is too much to ask. Why do you hate us Canon!?

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2012, 02:02:50 PM »

ippikiokami

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2012, 02:41:05 PM »
Pretty much the only question you need to ever ask about any camera is (other than can you afford it)

Will any of the features help you
1) Earn more money through whatever avenue
2) Help you accomplish some project that you couldn't have before

If you keep it as simple as that then it doesn't matter what comes out when and how fast.

For me the ISO + AF Helps me do my job that much better.

XanuFoto

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2012, 03:20:45 PM »
The 10th generation will be called 5D X. That would be a nice wait of 15 to 20 years.  :)

DavidRiesenberg

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2012, 03:25:40 PM »

sensor development slows down but product cycles are going to be faster?


That was my way of saying that I believe that sensor technology development will become faster because the market will demand it. I'm not saying that I agree that should happen, but it will. And all the market needs is a little nudge. Just think of what Apple did with the iPhone to the SoC and the capacitive displays market. Before 2007 they were pretty much stagnant in terms of evolution.

KHAWACHEN

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2012, 03:28:28 PM »
If you have the money buy it now.
Why not? The next model won't be out until maybe 2016 ! Who Knows what then
  :-\

Hey...somebody had to be first. Why not me. :)

Seriously though, and only marginally related to the thread's title (That's called marketing by the way), the new specs of the 5DIII got me thinking about the future of DSLRs.

I know that whenever a new model of anything comes out, we convince ourselves that it is exactly what we have to have and if we just have that we will be happy forever...until the next model comes out. But, if the 5DIII actually performs anywhere close to what Canon is claiming, I am hard-pressed to think of what other features I might ever want in a DSLR.

Full disclosure here: I am not in the market for a full frame DSLR and don't anticipate I will be anytime in the foreseeable future (I am too addicted to the advantages of a 1.6 crop factor).

But, I look at the others specs of the 5DIII and realize that the promised ISO, noise and dynamic range would more than meet my needs. The autofocus would be more than sufficient for anything I am likely to shoot. I might have some small interest in a little faster frame rate, but probably not really. The resolution is more than adequate (I find the 18 mp of the 7D just fine and usually end up throwing away megapixels anyway. I've done prints up to apprx. 2 x 3 feet with no problem at 18 mp, so 22 is more than adequate for virtually anything I will ever do.

The point I'm trying to make is that for a full frame camera, this doesn't seem to me to be a camera on a two-three year replacement cycle. Rather, I could imagine this camera still being very viable for a decade. I know that's a risky statement since no one knows what the future will hold, and, of course Canon is in the business of creating "must have" features in order to keep selling new product. Yet, I do have a hard time imagining what those features might be.

I'm not saying this is the same for everyone, but I am suggesting that we may be turning a corner in the DSLR market where, as the technology matures, the old two-three year cycles won't be applicable in the future.

In my own individual case, I am a big fan of my 7D. It is the best camera I have ever owned and I am a former F1 owner. But, I do see that there are things Canon could improve on for the 7DII. If they follow the path they've set out with the 1Dx and now the 5DIII, I can well imagine a 7D that would also have an extended life cycle.

So, I'm just throwing this out there for others to pick apart. Are we reaching a point with DSLR technology where the viable life-cycle of cameras will grow far beyond the two-three year cycle we've seen in recent history and return to the more traditional five to 10 year cycles that characterized film cameras?

marekjoz

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2012, 03:29:20 PM »
I think that now it would go from entry segment - improvements helping people make better pictures: for example scene and composition recognition, where a camera will tell: this woman should look a bit up, take her hand back etc. They include in camera built in memory thousands of best photos to help people make theirs looking "alike". At some point we will see lenses with sensors without even a need for slot for a memory card. Just 10 years after that, photography becomes useless, as you would be able to remind any moment from the past using your own built-in-brain-memory recovering pictures and movies from your own eye sensor... Photographers will just select something from the past, what they saw... or somebody else saw.
But I think also that this future is not for us, so we are still lucky :)
« Last Edit: March 02, 2012, 03:33:38 PM by marekjoz »
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Neeneko

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2012, 03:33:07 PM »
I question the 'two-three' year cycle idea in the first place.  I am still using a 300D/350D pair.

I could actually see the cycle time increasing as sensor developments slow down.  Canon could easily produce more frequent 'upgrades' that simply use the same sensors but with other 'improvements' like focusing speed/AF or any number of mostly firmware related changes.  Sensor improvements really seem to be slowing down as the cost of new designs increase and the advantages become more and more incremental.

Though part of me hopes that as sensor development slows, some one off departments will go back to the older designs and start producing some low cost niche cameras from older tech.  For instance no one has had a monocrhome DSLR on the market in years (though you can get machine vision FF cameras with B&W sensors, but they lack the niceties of a DSLR).

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2012, 03:33:07 PM »

ghosh9691

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2012, 04:05:14 PM »
I am patiently waiting for the EOS 5D Mark VIII...

 :)

7enderbender

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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2012, 04:19:58 PM »
Seriously, what I've been wondering is who really would want the 1Dx over the 5DIII? It appears Canon has now added better AF (potentially the same as in the 1-series) which is what everyone always screamed about. And it has supposedly more weather sealing and such, high enough frame rate and great flexibility for really everything now. So why bother with the 1Dx? What am I missing? And what else will Canon put out to fill any potential gap now that their studio and/or sports pros may be missing still?

The split between pro model and enthusiast + limited pro use seemed to be clearer. Now there are only two camera bodies and the "lower" one has actually the same or better features. I'm sure Canon has figured this all out and the 5D series has probably been one of their biggest money makers next to all the Rebels and P&S cameras - so that's probably that. From a marketing perspective I'm surprised that there wasn't a high resolution 1-series camera first.
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Re: Buy the 5D III or wait for the 5D IV?
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2012, 04:19:58 PM »