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Some predictions from Thom Hogan
Nikon superstar and generally well spoken Thom Hogan has some predictions in regards to the industry in 2009.
This is what he sees from Canon:
1) 50/50 on 1D Mark III Replacement.
2) “A bigger than FX sensor Canon is the one special thing that could show up in 2009.”
3) To retain market leadership at around 40% of dSLR with the sales of Rebels. (Nikon 37%, Sony 13% currently)
I haven't heard anything concrete about Canon going into medium format. When I do, I'll talk about it here.
I fully believe the 1D Mark III will get a redo in 2009, it may not be until the end of 2009 however. Everyone I speak too doesn't think Canon is too eager to release the camera until it is truly ready and proper QC has been done. There is a new AF system in the works but no where near completed.
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There is one thing to consider, the 2010 Winter Olympics in February 2010. Personally I would think that Canon would want to prove to the world that they ARE the leader and come out with something to best the D3 in all ways and hopefully have time for the photographers to fully field test it before boarding the plane to Vancouver.
While just the fact that the Olympics are in town doesn’t mean that Canon or anyone will have their newest toys available, this would be a crowning effort for Canon to re-take the market without question as the 1D Mark III replacement, whatever it is called, is the ideal tool for this venue. I could be very wrong though.
Michael, do you think we will get the 5DII by 2010 ?
Just kidding, but I’m impressed by Nikon’s share of the dSLR market right now. I hope that Canon won’t help them more in 2009 than they did in 2008.
Interesting paper from Hogan.
Hi Rox,
I have to admit when I read your reply I got a big laugh. You of course know the reason, from what I am reading it may be pushing 2010 before we get it ;-)
I agree. Nikon has kicked butt with a fine product. The D3 is a great tool. I have not personally used a 1D Mark III where I have a D3. I have heard many good things about the Mark III but the AF issue is certainly haunting Canon.
I sincerely hope that Canon comes out with a great new tool (whatever it’s name) that gives Nikon a run for their money. Competition is good for all of us. It is now Canon’s turn. I hope they have a good product and has gone through serious QC before it hits the shelf so we don’t have another issue like the AF problem. Depending on who I read the 1D Mark III is resolved or still exists, I personally don’t know.
I hope we see good news, on many fronts, in 2009!
I really really really hope the 1D III is replaced early next year. I won’t have this kind of disposable income for much longer, so the timing needs to be good for me to justify the 1 series. Come on Canon.. don’t let me down (again)
Thom Hogan also said he thought Canon would have 2009 as a pretty quiet year, and then come out with a bang in 2010.
That may very well be the case. It may be a quiet year but I personally think that before I would take a 1D Mark III replacement to the 2010 games in Vancouver in February instead of the D3, I would want some serious time to test it before the games started.
Most photographers will be in Vancouver at least 2 weeks before the games begin which will put them arriving in January 2010.
If Canon is going to take back market share in photojournalism / sports market with the 1D Mark III replacement they need it in the hands of the pros by around September 2009 so they have the “warm fuzzy” comfort factor.
If I were going to the games and were counting on the cameras for selling the photographs I would want to be certain it is up to the task. Especially with the bad taste the AF issue has given the market at present.
Canon is fully capable of doing this, I hope they will. Nikon will probably not replace the D3 in 2009. There is lots of scuttlebutt about the D3x,which would be great, but that is Not for the sports photographer. It would be great But, you would go from 9 FPS to 4 or 5 FPS. Therefore although it certainly will have a place, even in sports photography, the main thing the sports guys want is speed and quality, i.e. can focus, track focus and do what they need the tool to do.
IF Nikon does not replace the “D3” in 2009 it puts Canon in cat bird seat as they say to take back market share from Nikon in the arena the “1D” series is designed for. It could be a prime year for Canon, I hope they take it.
If Canon comes out with the 1D replacement around summer and it is a great product, the one we all want, the D3 shooters might take a look at their D3 and think should I use the new 1D or the D3 which by that time will be getting a little age on it? It could make the difference for Canon.
Canon has always made good products, as have Nikon. Today as Rox put Canon is helping Nikon with it’s market share. If Canon plays this well, they could certainly do a good job and make lots of us happy at the same time and regain it’s image problem from the AF issue.
Of course all of this is just my opinion, please draw your own.
Will the new 1Ds MK 3 replacement have dual Digic 4’s or will it come out with a new Digic 5? If it takes till 2010 for the new 1D series to be released than its more than enough time. I think the new 1Ds would be high resolution say 28 megapixels for the studio photographers and the 1D/2D would be for the sports photographer who wants a higher FPS around the 18 megapixel range.
If Nikon upgrades the D3 to a fast focusing higher pixel camera, the pressure will be on for a earlier 1D Mark IV release. If the rumored new Nikon D3x is a studio camera competing with the 1DS III, then we might see the 1D MK IV next fall. Right now, Nikon is putting on lots of pressure, offering deals to major publications, so I’m pretty certain Canon feels the pressure to release it ASAP.
However, there do not seem to currently be any credible rumors, and February is coming up fast.
I, am wondering if the 1D will be full frame? Nikon seems to be doing well with a FF sports camera, and a 21MP FF can be cropped to compensate for less reach.
I agree. I hope that the new “1D” will be full frame. It has been Very Successful for Nikon, surely Canon sees this. Every speculation says a 1.3 crop, I hope not but we will just have to see. As Daniel pointed out you would think they would at least increment the megapixels as well.
About the “1Ds”, you may be right. If the D3x does come out and is as good as the D3 but with more pixels, it will be a cookie to beat. I have heard the 1Ds Mark III has the same or nearly the same symptoms as the 1D Mark III. It is just a different market and that market doesn’t always, I am not saying they don’t, but high speed isn’t as important to that market as it is for the 1D III crowd. This could force Canon’s hand to bring out the new 1Ds before the 1D. Who knows.
I read here on one post that the “1Ds” replacement would be in February 2009. That is the only time I have seen that for the Ds. I have seen it multiple times for the 1D.
Whatever they call them and whenever they release them I hope they have all the “i”s dotted and all the “t”s crossed so they are both top notch and there are no gotchas after the purchase.
We may see Canon kick butt and take back market share in 2009. It is in Canon’s hands. The economy will be a factor in all businesses. I think the high end camera business is a bit more isolated. We will all feel the pinch even this market but the folks that buy these are usually buying them for business purposes.
We will be in for an exciting year no matter what Canon or Nikon releases. I look forward to see the new tools and toys.
I wish they would stop making these auto focus cameras at all.
Whatever happened to using skill to focus a camera ?
I’m really tired of being under bid on jobs by kids with the latest AF machine gun and a laptop who are willing to sell their copyright for a couple hundred sobs a day.
Gone are the days only the really skilled at many sports events. I guess i really am an old pro now. Maybe it’s time to get out before our profession reaches it’s logical conclusion…