I don't know about the gear heads which frequent this forum, but many consumers of tech toys seem oblivious to what might be coming. They buy what is familiar and popular and ON SALE at the moment, whether it is a TV, laptop, tablet...
On the other hand, with so many purchases made online now, and without the influence of the surly know-nothings at big-box stores, more shoppers are more sophisticated than just a few years ago. Camera shops seem to be way beyond "endangered." Verge of extinction.
It's a good question. My conjecture, the dSLR will be appealing for a few more years, and maybe, technically, the best choice for sports and wildlife too.
How long was the transition from CRT to flat-screen? I mean from the time the first flat-screen hit mainstream stores until the last tube TV was gone from the shelves?