Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls

[Lichtgestalt]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/07/nikon-earnings-idUSL3N0IR39F20131107?type=companyNews

Nov 7 (Reuters) - Nikon Corp cut its full-year unit sales forecast for high-end cameras for the second quarter in a row on Thursday, as a dramatic fall in demand among photography hobbyists that began last year accelerated faster than expected.

The company posted a 41 percent drop in operating profit to 21.9 billion yen ($222 million) for the six months ended September, saying overseas demand for pricy single-lens reflex models had remained depressed.

It cut its unit sales projection for interchangeable lens cameras to 6.20 million from a previous forecast of 6.55 million, which had predicted the first fall in sales of the format since Nikon's first digital SLR in 1999.

A sharp downturn in the single-lens reflex camera market this year has come as a blow to companies such as Nikon and market leader Canon Inc, after the shrivelling of the compact camera market as consumers switched to smartphones for taking photos. Nikon's imaging unit's operating profit slid 26 percent in the first half to 30.9 billion yen.

Nikon also cut its sales forecast for steppers, multi-million dollar lithography machines that are a vital part of the semiconductor manufacturing process, to 36 from an earlier forecast of 37 machines, saying it had felt the impact of a drop in capex among chipmakers. Operating profit in its precision instruments unit fell 48.2 percent to 3.7 billion yen.

The Japanese firm now claims less than a fifth of the market, down from less than 40 percent a decade ago, as Dutch rival ASML Holdings NV has gained a share of over 80 percent.

financial results:

http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2014/14_2qf_c_e.pdf

when you look at the numbers and reports from nikon it seems nikon was also very busy cutting production cost this year to keep the operating income relatively(!) close to the forecast.

 

[Albi86]

The news being...?

Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

The news being...?

Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.

the news is... that the report was released today. :

if it was about canon.. all the DRones, MPicklers would be all over it again. ;D
they knew it before, canon has to do something or customers will all switch to nikon, blahblah...

Every manufacturer has cut profit forecasts.

camera manufacturer.

leica too?

 

[Loswr]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

 

[preppyak]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Which is interesting, considering that, by the specs, they released the two more interesting DSLRs of the last year (D800 with big MP, and D600 for cheap). Seems like innovating on the camera body side of things isnt enough to get people to buy.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop of y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops of y/y unit dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Which is interesting, considering that, by the specs, they released the two more interesting DSLRs of the last year (D800 with big MP, and D600 for cheap). Seems like innovating on the camera body side of things isnt enough to get people to buy.

or people are clever enough to realize that for 13x18cm prints or flickr/facebook uploads a 36 MP camera is just overkill.
it only slows down your editing process and you need lot of harddisk space.

let´s be honest, most people do 10x15cm or 13x18cm prints 98% of the time.
even with a lot of cropping you don´t need 36 MP for that.

the "oil of nikon" D600 has kind of a bad reputation.

 

[jcns]

i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time.
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time.
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.

i have a friend who bought a 600D because he liked my pictures.

now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp".

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".
his problem is, when he does portraits the head only occupies 1/6 of the frame and then he crops like mad. told him a few times to get closer... he makes the same errors again and again.

some people really don´t need a DSLR.
he likes my macro and portrait shots but even after 16 month he still takes pictures in P mode.
and he wonders that with the "expensive" DSLR his images doesn´t look much better then with his 190 euro P&S. for him light is light..... you only need enough.

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.

 

[Sporgon]

The simple fact is there are many, many people who like the idea of seeing through their camera's lens.

Canon know this; this is why they introduced the great little 100D/SL1 and were late to the mirrorless party.

I'll make a prediction: in the near future Canon will fit a pentaprism into their Rebel bodies to provide a brighter view without the 'cold' image given by the pentamirror.

The sales figures must be alarming for Nikon when they compare with Canon.

 

[skullyspice]

not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

 

[waving_odd]

...saying overseas demand for pricy single-lens reflex models had remained depressed...

So which one is the following is true?

[list type=decimal]
[*]Their R&D (esp. the Df team) and Sales are not communicating
[*]Non-overseas (Japan local) market is different
[*]They think USD 2650 is not pricey for their target customer
[*]Somehow they think the Df is not the average Joe's DSLR
[*]They don't care about the dropped demand
[*]All of the above
[*]None of the above
[*] ??? : :-\
[/list]

 

[Kernuak]

now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp".

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.

Yet many people like this do buy DSLRs and think they can take the same photos that professionals can.

 

[YuengLinger]

I belong to a BIG UNIVERSITY photo club. Just recently, the old topic of copyright protection came up. When I mentioned "print," the whole room went silent and people looked puzzled.

Also: Just last week attended a workshop on natural light wedding photography. The teacher, a successful (about $90k per year) wedding photographer in her early 30's never sells albums.

The point of these two anecdotes: Nikon's big 36MP sensor, and all the magic of the current generation of great lenses by Canon, Nikon, Sigma, and Tamron, is completely lost not only on the smartphone generation, but also on their parents and grandparents who see little screens as the only way of sharing images these days.

We are facing a world where books are for eccentrics, craft is for a tiny percentage of elite Hollywood and museum gallery erudites, and expensive dSLR's are for maniacs.

That said, I can tell you EVERY time I shoot an event or just happen to have my 5D3 with me, strangers comment on the quality of the camera, know the model, express envy...But they have learned that having a dSLR does not automatically produce the magical images they think they are entitled to, even if they have no clue about composition, lighting, etc, etc...

 

[unfocused]

not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

Hah! I know you're being sarcastic, but I do find something very interesting.

I just checked the Amazon Best Sellers and the Df is nowhere to be found. Now, I know that it is only available for pre-sale, but I also recall that in the past, Amazon included cameras that were yet to be released, so long as they were taking orders for them (5DIII and 6D for example)

Maybe Amazon has changed their policies or maybe the Df is a bust. I don't know.

BTW I continue to be stunned that the 5DIII remains in the top 10 sellers (#7 today) given that it is more than $2,000 more expensive than most of the other best sellers.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

not to worry, the Df will turn that all around for them

sarcasm?

But the bad news doesn’t stop there, it continues to roll with rumors of lackluster Df pre-sales published by Nikon Rumors. NR claims that unofficial info from several retailers has Df demand “not even close” to what D800 demand was when it came out.

To substantiate that claim, NR points out that the Df isn’t even in the top 20 best-selling DSLRs on Amazon, while the D610 (not exactly the most popular release Nikon has ever had, given all of the pissed off D600 users) is up at number 14.
.

http://petapixel.com/2013/11/08/nikon-cuts-sales-forecast-yet-dslr-sales-stall-df-preorders-come-subpar/

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales. Its sad to see Nikon hurting so much, they seem a bit dysfunctional and keep casting around seemingly at random looking for a winner.

I have a theory about the Df, and its based on Nikon having to commit to a certain volume of sensors purchased from Sony. In short, Nikon needed to turn their surplus of expensive sensors into cash, and a niche camera that was a high profit item designed for those with plenty of cash and willing to spend it for such a product. I don't think they ever expected it to be a big seller, just a way to use up extra sensors and make a few bucks doing it.

The Nikon situation only points up Canon's very conservative philosophy of mass production at a low cost, so that they not only make more profit per unit, but when times are tough, they can cut the price drastically to grab market share and still show a respectable profit. You do not do this by spending truck loads of money developing, tooling, stocking, and advertising niche models.

Canon is hanging on to their cash and cutting prices to increase sales of existing products and only turning out new or updated products to meet some specific internally defined goals. That's why we see the big profit difference. It has little to do with a product being the best of the best and everything to do with giving priority to designing products that can be made and sold for a profit even if the price must be cut way back. Its not something that happens overnight, Canon has done this for the last 60 years. Every cent that goes into a product is questioned and squeezed out if it is not deemed to be worth much more than a penny in ROI.

 

[Lichtgestalt]

First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales.

not porsche.

I have a theory about the Df, and its based on Nikon having to commit to a certain volume of sensors purchased from Sony.

as far as i know chipworks reported the D4 sensor is not a sony sensor.

and im not sure if sony plants are used for manufacturing.

also i read the DF was 4 years in the making.
that would speak against the theory it was born out of "sensor overproduction".

 

[Albi86]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article, the situation is a bit different:

Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

First, it is tough times for any expensive luxury item, so everyone is hurting on sales. Its sad to see Nikon hurting so much, they seem a bit dysfunctional and keep casting around seemingly at random looking for a winner.

Strongly disagree.
The crysis hurts middle-class people, who buy consumer- and middle-range products. The market of luxury items doesn't care because its customers in most cases have not been not affected. It's not a coincidence that both Canon and Nikon are trying to focus on the "high-margin" markets.

 

[Loswr]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article, the situation is a bit different:

Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units. I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional. I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year). I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years. If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

 

[Albi86]

By the numbers:

• Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
• Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon. Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article, the situation is a bit different:

Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units. I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional. I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year). I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years. If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.