Opinion: A Material Delay – A Likely Reason for Camera Delays and Production Issues

[Canon Rumors]

After talking about the EU and why that didn’t seem to be causing any of the delays, the conversation in the forums, after discussing golf rangefinders, made a note that there seemed to be a supply shortage across all manufacturers. Someone mentioned Thom Hogan talking about it, and then something clicked in my lizard brain

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[Richard CN]

This again, is some serious speculation we don't have actual confirmation. but it certainly makes a lot more sense to me than the EU causing the issues with laws that aren't even in effect until the end of the year.

I hope y'all enjoy the read.

 

[neuroanatomist]

Enjoy the read.

Nice, thanks!

 

[DhlcadR6]

Interesting POV....And now my brain is full of Trump's voice saying "CHINA".

However for Sony, they still pumping shxts out every so often....it's hard to justify on their side (?

 

[kinless]

I sure picked a hell of a time to finally upgrade my 16 year-old 50D to the impending R5 Mark II.

Magnesium shortage is certainly a plausible theory. Of course Canon et al. would probably never admit such things that affect operations. I just hope it doesn't translate into sky-high prices compared to the original R5.

 

[Chris Charles]

This again, is some serious speculation we don't have actual confirmation. but it certainly makes a lot more sense to me than the EU causing the issues with laws that aren't even in effect until the end of the year.

I hope y'all enjoy the read.

Those on the US (& UK) Right have never missed an opportunity to blame EU regulations for any inconvenience.
Your view on Magnesium seems very reasonable. But why wouldn't that be the talk of the Camera Industry?
Also it is hard to see the very thin stable oxide layer on a stored billet of Magnesium would impact the later manufacturing process.

 

[Richard CN]

Those on the US (& UK) Right have never missed an opportunity to blame EU regulations for any inconvenience.
Your view on Magnesium seems very reasonable. But why wouldn't that be the talk of the Camera Industry?
Also it is hard to see the very thin stable oxide layer on a stored billet of Magnesium would impact the later manufacturing process.

The camera companies if you haven't noticed, aren't exactly known for having frank conversations, but they have all said something about supply shortages, etc.

 

[Jethro]

Interesting point - my initial reaction was that I'm surprised that the amount of magnesium camera manufacturers use for upmarket bodies (surely not that large in world magnesium production terms?) would be affected by shortages / changes in demand by other industries. But, I guess a shortage is a shortage. They were obviously affected by chip shortages a couple of years ago, and their usage can't be that high in world terms.

It's also the case that magnesium is being researched and developed for use in EV batteries, as an alternative to lithium-ion batteries. If that comes to fruition, then whatever shortages there are now are going to be a drop in the ocean compared to the future!

 

[AUGS]

Great article, thanks.
Raw materials are the first step in the total supply chain. Any shortages or limitations here affect everything downstream, including and not limited to the component parts but also their manufacturing tools and processes (think moulds, machinery, chip manufacturing etc).
In the current manufacturing "Just in Time" environment, delays at raw material level have significant impacts. Manufacturers do not want to have millions of dollars in warehoused components as these are additional costs. And launching a new product with uncertain supply would be potentially damaging to the brand.
While the "supply shortages" may not be only magnesium or its alloys (as this article highlights), there are still many global shortages that will have an impact to some degree - and at different frequency or intervals - and that makes forecasting and production schedules that much harder to predict.

 

[Canon Rumors]

We really enjoyed diving into "Blame the EU", and not buying it. I don't know about Richard, but I learned a lot over the last 24 hours and that'll continue today.

 

[john1970]

Entirely possible and a plausible theory. Could explain that shortage of lens announcements as well as new cameras. Will have to be patient, but also ensure that once a product is announced that I place an order immediately.

 

[Berowne]

Plastic.

 

[koenkooi]

Plastic.

Engineering plastic!

 

[Richard CN]

Plastic.

hah. I have waded through the depths of dpreview forums when Canon would announce ANYTHING with plastic or even steel/aluminum.

The camera companies painted themselves into a corner equating magnesium alloy with their premier camera models.

I have long struggled to find a common denominator that would fit across lenses and camera shortages - we know it's not the optics or glass since that wouldn't impact cameras that much these days. electronics? hardly anything shared between camera and lenses - a few custom ASICS and off the shelf components wouldn't cause such a problem.

Processors would be a camera only thing.

even sensors, camera only.

Yes, there could be a vast cloud of supply chain problems, but this neatly fit. it doesn't mean it is right, but it was a heck of an article to write up even if I'm out to lunch on it, and I learned stuff and that's never a bad thing to do.

and I'm here with popcorn when the other people / sites start talking about it

 

[DhlcadR6]

Plastic.

Sony's terrible plastics

 

[Toamelicious]

Plastic.

Wood.
This might finally be time for classic materials making a comeback!
Marble!
Heavyness is a sign of quality. I'm sure people wouldn't mind carrying around a 10kg rock around their necks.

 

[freejay]

In the graph prices went down the last months. For me this clearly indicates that there is no shortage of Magnesium on the market. Otherwise prices would spike (again).

 

[PerKr]

Manufacturers will need to consider alternative alloys then. The Nikon F2 had a cast aluminium chassis with brass top/bottom plates and this seems to have been how professional cameras were generally designed before the move to cast magnesium alloys. Nobody complained about that and I haven't heard of anyone with the slightest trace of sense say the F1-F3 aren't durable cameras for professional use. Even the EOS-1 had an aluminium frame. Engineering polymers might be the way forward.

 

[Richard CN]

In the graph prices went down the last months. For me this clearly indicates that there is no shortage of Magnesium on the market. Otherwise prices would spike (again).

still 60% higher than before all this happened, it's easing, but it's still a problem. The spike was SO high that it's distorting the fact that it's still significantly more expensive.

Then we have .. who's getting it? it could be that Japanese manufacturers are not getting it as timely as in the past. if they are having to start / stop / start / stop production because they aren't getting it when they need it.. can mess everything up.

And china does crazy things to prices too.

 

[Richard CN]

Manufacturers will need to consider alternative alloys then. The Nikon F2 had a cast aluminium chassis with brass top/bottom plates and this seems to have been how professional cameras were generally designed before the move to cast magnesium alloys. Nobody complained about that and I haven't heard of anyone with the slightest trace of sense say the F1-F3 aren't durable cameras for professional use. Even the EOS-1 had an aluminium frame. Engineering polymers might be the way forward.

I agree, this is a problem of the camera companies' own marketing. they've made us now think that we NEED mag alloy. My beloved EOS-3 I didn't think had any mag alloy.