A realistic time-line for actual 5D3 in your hands

[RayS2121]

As 2011 winds down, I wiped the profuse drooling I have become prone to since 1D-X was announced, and reassessed when “realistically” a 5D3 could be in my hands...not an announcement...an actual body I can unbox.

Central to the timeline is what sensor Canon would use on the 5D3; would they do what they did before with 1Ds3 and 5D2 and use a similar sensor as the 1 series, though not many expected them to, not the least of which the 1Ds3 owners who doled out premium $$$? Or will they put resources into generating a redundant sensor just making minor MP tweaks and fixing a bit of ISO?

I think history will repeat itself. I would expect a similar sensor to 1Dx, but as noted by some earlier, heavily crippled goodies including AF, fps, Digic versions, build and weather sealing, etc... This will annoy the 1Dx owners, as it did the IDs3 earlier…but canon will wait a descent enough time in between the two releases to buffer the blow. If they use a similar sensor, in order for them not to be beat to a pulp by the enraged 1D-x owners who spent $6000+, they have to wait a decent period of time, even if announced earlier, to actually ship... oh lets say...a year

So here’s the likely time line: till about April 2012, the 1D-x eats up all the oxygen in the room. The 5D3 crowd is antsy, becoming rabid by summer (just what Canon wants, desperation, Cha-ching!). They throw a few teasers of coming attractions throughout the rest of the year but without actually delivering any concrete details or making any real announcements. Breaking point in December 2012. The "I-want-my-5D3-now" crowd is having kittens and SPCA is overflowing. Having sold 1000’s more units of 5D2’s interim, and having eked out maximum anticipation, they finally announce 5D3 around December 2012, but here’s the kicker….you have to wait oh just a few months for it to ship and you to have fun…that will put it off till March 2013 (not coincidentally exactly 1 year from 1D-x landing in people's hands). Oh fine! Possibly, Feb 2013? A month can save thousands jumping off the cliff…

Bottom line, lots of drool, but no 5D3 in hand till early Feb/March 2013. Sounds about right?

 

[jrista]

Sounds about right. Canon is a business...in the business of making a profit, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it actually first hit shelves in early 2013.

In the interim, I've recently purchased a 7D, so I'm pretty happy to sit tidy for another year. Its certainly a hell of a lot cheaper than sitting antsy and drooling for another year, till I finally can't stand it, and wind up jumping ship, losing a hell of a lot of time, effort, and money invested in Canon...

 

[smirkypants]

This sounds like the General Motors strategy in the 1980s. What they failed to get is that if you try to milk too much, people will jump ship and suddenly Honda has the biggest selling car in America. Believe me, I have thought several times about getting a Nikon (almost exclusively because I want that 200-400 lens so badly) and I'm not averse to selling my glass on eBay.

The only reason the camera business isn't the computer business is because people are invested in glass. You can't take this investment for granted, though. Glass sells well and retains much of its value. Canon TODAY could release updates to the 7D and 5D2, and if Steve Jobs had been running the company you could surely have counted on much more ruthlessly fast-paced improvements and more frequent updates. Apple regularly released new items that "cut into" their existing product. We ALL know the 5D2 has an autofocus from the Stone Age. We all know it's easy to fix. We all know Canon doesn't want to fix it. It's annoying.

I really don't like this wink-wink, nudge-nudge that Nikon and Canon have... we won't release new stuff right now if you don't. It's the same as with xbox and playstation. Each doesn't want to force the other's hand until the "cycle" plays through. Can you imagine Steve saying "we won't release the iPad because it'll cut into our sales of _____." He never did and never would have.

I don't like being the victim of a marketing decision. It shows lack of vision.

 

[RayS2121]

This sounds like the General Motors strategy in the 1980s. What they failed to get is that if you try to milk too much, people will jump ship and suddenly Honda has the biggest selling car in America. Believe me, I have thought several times about getting a Nikon (almost exclusively because I want that 200-400 lens so badly) and I'm not averse to selling my glass on eBay.
>>>>>I really don't like this wink-wink, nudge-nudge that Nikon and Canon have... we won't release new stuff right now if you don't. It's the same as with xbox and playstation. Each doesn't want to force the other's hand until the "cycle" plays through. Can you imagine Steve saying "we won't release the iPad because it'll cut into our sales of _____." He never did and never would have.

I don't like being the victim of a marketing decision. It shows lack of vision.

Speaking of marketing decision, if they do opt for the 1Dx-"like" sensor, and knock down to 18MP, then guess what, they will keep 5D-II in the inventory and product list as those needing MP would stay with 5DII (they'll throw in new firmware updates etc..., tell you how it purrs when you pet it, pat you on the back, slip you a biscuit, and put you out to pasture). This way, without putting any more R&D money, they get to flog the old horse that still works, while selling a new pony on the side. Diabolical!